My (very early) 2023 Emmy predictions

Submitted by Scdsco t3_10pasy2 in television

Since we're about halfway through the 2022-23 television season I though it would be a good time to make some super early predictions that I can look back on later in the year and see how right (or more likely, wrong) I was. Some of these shows don't have official release dates yet and I haven't seen all of them, these are just my predictions. I know not everyone is into awards stuff but I though it still might spark some interesting discussion about recent and upcoming shows.

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Best Drama

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  1. Succession
  2. Better Call Saul
  3. The Last of Us
  4. The Crown
  5. Yellowjackets
  6. House of The Dragon
  7. Andor

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Other contenders: The Handmaid's Tale, The Rings of Power, The Mandalorian, Yellowstone, Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, The Old Man, The Boys

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Drama Actor

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  1. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
  2. Jeremy Strong, Succession
  3. Brian Cox, Succession
  4. Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
  5. Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
  6. Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

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Other contenders: Kevin Costner, Yellowstone; Anthony Starr, The Boys; Pedro Pascal, The Mandalorian; Diego Luna, Andor; Jacob Anderson, Interview With The Vampire

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Drama Actress

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  1. Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
  2. Imelda Staunton, The Crown
  3. Bella Ramsay, The Last of Us
  4. Emma D’arcy, House of the Dragon
  5. Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
  6. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

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Other Contenders: Emily Blunt, The English; Sharon Hogan, Bad Sisters; Morfydd Clark, The Rings of Power

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Drama Supporting Actor

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  1. Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
  2. Kieran Culkin, Succession
  3. Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
  4. Paddy Considine, House of the Dragon
  5. Matt Smith, House of the Dragon
  6. Nicholas Braun, Succession
  7. Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
  8. Ismael Cruz Cordova, The Rings of Power

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Other Contenders:; OT Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale; Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale; Fabien Frankel, House of the Dragon; Jack Lowden, Slow Horses; Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul

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Drama Supporting Actress

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  1. Sarah Snook, Succession
  2. Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
  3. Milly Alcock, House of the Dragon
  4. Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
  5. Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
  6. J Smith Cameron, Succession
  7. Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
  8. Eve Best, House of the Dragon

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Other Contenders: Lesley Manville, The Crown; Kelly Reilly, Yellowstone; Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale; Olivia Cooke, House of The Dragon

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Drama Guest Actor

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  1. Nick Offerman, The Last of Us
  2. Murray Bartlett, The Last of Us
  3. Alexander Skarsgard, Succession
  4. Bryan Cranston, Better Call Saul
  5. Salim Dau, The Crown

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Other Contenders: Andy Serkis, Andor; Ariyan Moyad, Succession; Rob Yang, Succession; Gabriel Luna, The Last of Us; Aaron Paul, Better Call Saul

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Drama Guest Actress

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  1. Anna Torv, The Last of Us
  2. Sian Brooke, House of the Dragon
  3. Cherry Jones, Succession
  4. Fiona Shaw, Andor
  5. Natasha McElhone, The Crown

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Other Contenders: Melanie Lynskey, The Last of Us; Amanda Brugel, The Handmaid’s Tale; McKenna Grace, The Handmaid’s Tale; Hope Davis, Succession; Carol Burnett, Better Call Saul; Harriet Walter, Succession; Nico Parker, The Last of Us

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Best Comedy

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  1. Abbott Elementary
  2. Ted Lasso
  3. The Bear
  4. Hacks
  5. Only Murders In The Building
  6. Poker Face
  7. Barry

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Other Contenders: Atlanta; The Marvelous Mrs Maisel; Wednesday; Reboot; What We Do In The Shadows; Reservation Dogs; Ghosts; Dead To Me; The Rehearsal

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Comedy Actor

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  1. Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building
  2. Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
  3. Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
  4. Bill Hader, Barry
  5. Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
  6. Donald Glover, Atlanta

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Other Contenders: Keegan Michael Key, Reboot; Nathan Fielder, The Rehearsal; D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs

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Comedy Actress

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  1. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
  2. Jean Smart, Hacks
  3. Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
  4. Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
  5. Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
  6. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

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Other Contenders: Christina Applegate, Dead To Me; Linda Cardellini, Dead To Me; Amrit Kaur, The Sex Lives of College Girls; Natasia Demitriou, What We Do In The Shadows

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Comedy Supporting Actor

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  1. Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
  2. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
  3. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
  4. Henry Winkler, Barry
  5. Anthony Carrigan, Barry
  6. Nick Mohammad, Ted Lasso
  7. Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta
  8. Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary

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Other Contenders: LaKeith Stanfield, Atlanta; Brandon Scott Jones, Ghosts; Matthew Barry, What We Do In The Shadows; Mark Proksch, What We Do In The Shadows; Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live; James Austin Jones, Saturday Night Live; Luis Gerardo Mendez, The Resort

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Comedy Supporting Actress

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  1. Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
  2. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
  3. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
  4. Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
  5. Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
  6. Ayo Edibiri, The Bear
  7. Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary
  8. Juno Temple, Ted Lasso

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Other Contenders: Zazie Beetz, Atlanta; Gwendoline Christie, Wednesday; Heidi Gardener, Saturday Night Live; Chloe Fineman, Saturday Night Live; Ego Nwodim, Saturday Night Live

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Comedy Guest Actor

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  1. Nathan Lane, Only Murders In The Building
  2. Leslie Odom Jr, Abbott Elementary
  3. Katt Williams, Atlanta
  4. Austin Butler, Saturday Night Live
  5. James Caverly, Only Murders in the Building

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Other Contenders: Michael B Jordan, Saturday Night Live; Wes Studi, Reservation Dogs; Marc Maron, Reservation Dogs

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Comedy Guest Actress

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  1. Amy Ryan, Only Murders in the Building
  2. Shirley MacLaine, Only Murders in the Building
  3. Aubrey Plaza, Saturday Night Live
  4. Keke Palmer, Saturday Night Live
  5. Catherine Zeta Jones, Wednesday

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Other contenders: Raven Goodwin, Abbott Elementary; Kelya Monterroso Mejia, Abbott Elementary; Megan Mullally, Reservation Dogs; Parisa Fakhri, What We Do In The Shadows

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Best Limited Series

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  1. The White Lotus: Sicily
  2. This Is Going To Hurt
  3. Black Bird
  4. Daisy Jones and the Six
  5. The English

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Other Contenders: The Patient, White House Plumbers, Shrinking, Dahmer, Masters of the Air, All The Light We Cannot See

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Limited Actor

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  1. Taron Egerton, Black Bird
  2. Ben Whishaw, This Is Going To Hurt
  3. Daniel Radcliff, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
  4. Jesse Plemons, Love and Death
  5. Steve Carell, The Patient

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Other Contenders: Austin Butler, Masters of the Air; Evan Peters, Dahmer; Chaske Spencer, The English; Jason Segal, Shrinking; Billy Crudup, Hello Tomorrow; Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers

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Limited Actress

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  1. Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy
  2. Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things
  3. Elizabeth Olsen, Love and Death
  4. Betty Gilpin, Mrs. Davis
  5. Emily Blunt, The English

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Other contenders: Mery Streep, Extrapolations; Connie Britton, Dear Edward; Riley Keough, Daisy Jones and the Six; Aria Mia Loberti, All The Light We Cannot See

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Limited Supporting Actor

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  1. Rainn Wilson, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
  2. Harrison Ford, Shrinking
  3. F Murray Abraham, The White Lotus: Sicily
  4. Paul Walter Houser, Black Bird
  5. Justin Theroux, White House Plumbers
  6. Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus: Sicily
  7. Domhall Gleeson, The Patient
  8. Richard Jenkins, Dahmer

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Other Contenders: Mark Ruffalo, Al The Light We Cannot See; Theo James, The White Lotus; Will Sharpe, The White Lotus; Adam Dimarco, The White Lotus

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Limited Supporting Actress

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  1. Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
  2. Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
  3. Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus
  4. Evan Rachel Wood, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
  5. Niecy Nash, Dahmer
  6. Lena Heady, White House Plumbers
  7. Margo Martindale, Mrs Davis
  8. Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus

Other Contenders: ; Simona Tabasco, The White Lotus; Haley Lu Richardson, The White Lotus

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Comments

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ol_beardy t1_j6jc4ho wrote

HotD will almost surely get a Best Drama nod

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spectacleskeptic t1_j6jdkc5 wrote

I will be so disappointed if Chaske Spencer doesn't get a nomination for The English. I'm also certain he won't, but it would really sour me to the awards.

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SmileyPiesUntilIDrop t1_j6jdltl wrote

I believe The White Lotus has to compete in Drama or Comedy for season 2

−2

pm_me_reason_to_livx t1_j6jf2oo wrote

I think for the most part you pretty much guessed it to be honest. To me, it seems the more varied and diverse television gets, the more predictable and boring the emmys get with their choices.

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lightsongtheold t1_j6jhzsm wrote

It does seem a fairly predictable year. Dahmer will almost certainly earn a limited series nomination at the expense of stuff like The English and This Is Going To Hurt. Masters of the Air is a lock as well if Apple air it in time.

I think you are spot on with the drama predictions but I still think it a shame they completely ignore shows like P-Valley from the networks that cannot afford to properly campaign those shows.

I will be interested to see if 1923 on Paramount garners any love. It has a gig budget and awards darling Helen Mirren in there with Harrison Ford. It has also been a big viewership hit by all accounts for Paramount+.

As for Comedy? I think Wednesday will earn a nomination even if Abbot Elementary, The Bear, and Ted Lasso look to be fighting it out for the actual win. Wednesday was a smash viewership hit and one of Netflix’s most popular shows ever. They will back it with a massive campaign as they have nothing else except the ultra niche Mo to get behind this year.

I’ll be sad to see the excellent Reservation Dogs likely getting ignored in Comedy.

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pzycho t1_j6jk2vq wrote

Fleishman is in Trouble deserves to be in there for limited series. It's much better than I expected it to be based on its promotional material.

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jez124 t1_j6jmbo8 wrote

Not quite sure some fo the genre shows are a definite lock.Hope Last of us gets it though. Would be pleasantly surprised at a paddy considine nom for HOTD too.

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Frazzledsoul t1_j6jmsn7 wrote

No way will House of the Dragon get all those additional nominations for people who haven't picked up anything yet, especially after all of the guilds rejected them.

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nbaisbest4 t1_j6jqht9 wrote

This is pretty good, where did you find Shrinking is a limited series because I cant find anything on that, and I could see Adrien Brody making best guest actor for a comedy series

I also think Masters of the Air could make a big splash in this and is being underestimated.

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Saar13 t1_j6jsqnp wrote

Some thoughts on Apple, which I follow more:

I don't think Ted Lasso will be eligible for this year. I think they only open in June or July.

Shrinking is a comedy series; As far as I know it's not a limited series.

I think Apple should invest in Shrinking and Hello Tomorrow in comedy (The Academy likes Billy Crudup).

I think the limited series categories are going to be extremely dependent on The Masters of the Air. If it's good, the Academy will love to award a really big, big-budget show with an A-list team behind it.

Extrapolations has a strong cast (Maryl Streep, Sienna Miller, Matthew Rhys, Tobey Maguire, Edward Norton, Keri Russell...), but I don't think the episodic anthology has a chance.

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sevsnapey t1_j6k5o3t wrote

fans of "the boys" need to stop pretending that it belongs alongside top tier actual drama shows. it's a disney+ superhero show but "make it weird and adult." take away the gore and nudity and it's pretty much MCU

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verissimoallan t1_j6kln56 wrote

Replying to monsieurxander (#1,627,788)

The first season of Game of Thrones was nominated in ALL the guilds (PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG). After that, it was nominated at the Emmys in Drama Series, Supporting Actor, Directing and Writing.

House of the Dragon snubbed by the all the guilds is not a good sign.

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verissimoallan t1_j6klssk wrote

Paddy Considine was submitted in the awards as Lead Actor.

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ellajames88 t1_j6l75nj wrote

It bothered me a tad last year that Melanie Lynskey and Christina Ricci got the Emmy nominations for Yellowjackets. I love them both but felt Tawny Cypress had the more challenging material and was so good in the season.

It will be interesting to see what Yellowjackets brings in season two and if they will manage more nominations.

I'm excited for Succession season 4, now that I've watched it I get the hype and awards.

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Frazzledsoul t1_j6l8jqj wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#1,638,846)

They weren't nominated for anything at the Director's Guild Awards, Producer's Guild Awards, Screen Actor's Guild Awards, or the Writer's Guild Awards....which seems to indicate that the industry is not too fond of the show. Being nominated for the Golden Globe Awards and Critic's Choice Awards could be seen as more of a reflection of media hype and "thanks for the ratings" more than anything else.

So it's a bit of a stretch to assume they are going to nominate multiple actors in every category, including ones who have not gotten any other nominations.

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ZealousidealBus9271 t1_j6lmdb0 wrote

Replying to cdbriggs (#1,624,268)

Sadly, I don't think Better Call Saul will win anything. Sony, who owns the IP and show, would rather put their campaigning funds behind The Last of Us, which has potential for more seasons and is a more profitable IP for the company in the end. Not to mention HBO being behind the show, and being on that network likely increases the chances of winning compared to AMC.

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Nicobade t1_j6m4yjj wrote

Replying to sevsnapey (#1,630,802)

Is their an MCU movie about how The Avengers are all entitled psychopaths who only care about their public image and murder civilians for fun? one that shits on media conglomerates like Disney and reveals it was literally founded by Nazis? is there an MCU movie that directly compares superhero obsession with the rise of fascism in America?

I'm not gonna say The Boys is even close to being the best show on TV but to act like it's just an MCU show but with blood and tits is such a superficial take that feels like you didn't watch more than a couple trailers of the show and judged it.

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