Submitted by mlamping t3_10plgfa in wallstreetbets
cesvilmal t1_j6llk9t wrote
You cant have fsd with single modality sensors. Elong is not a technologist but he likes to pretend to be one. No one is talking about the gigantic liability TSLA will have on their books once it becomes clear that autonomy isn't.possible without multiple sensor modalities and that all those cars they sold with pre paid fsd are no better that Chevy's super cruise, and will never be.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6lqhtl wrote
Elon isnt but lemme guess, you, a nobody on reddit, are the authority to say what is needed for self driving? Get over yourself
cesvilmal t1_j6lrvdc wrote
Just look at literally anyone else who is trying to solve the fsd problem and tell me if they're exclusively using cameras. It's not just me saying it. The absolute fanaticism for Tesla really blinds people to the fact that not every incredibly brilliant individual works for Tesla. And btw, I am not including myself as an incredibly brilliant individual.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6ltjap wrote
Tell me one company who has access to the sheer amount of data required to pull off Tesla’s approach. There is a reason no one is even attempting to brute force their way to autonomy like tesla is… its a complete lack of training data
mlamping OP t1_j6ltyeo wrote
No, it’s that all the tech they built in 2008 to do it is outdated and they have to continue because they spent billions on lidars and other expensive sensors.
How I know? I know ppl at some of these top fsd contenders. Using LiDAR or camera to sense the world are so close in efficiency that the cost for LiDAR etc is stupid. That’s why many LiDAR based fsd companies are old and the new ones are all camera based.
LiDAR main advantage was distance and range sensing. 5 cameras, and video stitching along with the software solved that 5 years ago. Hence why the talk of fusion multiple sensor types together is stupid. You can do range and distance with cameras pretty well
opAnonxd t1_j6m22to wrote
i thought he was going to put a mix of lidar and cameras... for the moments the camera cant pick up the lidar can.
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edit: stated older models wont get fsd due to this.
cesvilmal t1_j6luiqy wrote
No company has as much data as Tesla, and yet, fsd is still not working... I'm sure it will soon though, any day. It's definitely not the sensor hill they decided to die on.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6lv1yb wrote
They started really collecting data 2 years ago with 2000 beta testers. They collected 90 million miles by the end of the second year. Thats pretty damn epic and the improvements have been impressive. But fsd won’t be anywhere near perfect till they hit billions of miles. I think elon has been quoted as needing 6 billion miles and i wouldnt be surprised if it’s more… with 400k beta testers, we are years away. It will be gradual and iterative but the point is, it’s a matter of time. Is fsd anywhere near perfect? Hell no. Is the improvement progressing as needed to solve fsd within the next decade? Hell yes
mlamping OP t1_j6ltk6u wrote
No, it’s that all the tech they built in 2008 to do it is outdated and they have to continue because they spent billions on lidars and other expensive sensors.
How I know? I know ppl at some of these top fsd contenders. Using LiDAR or camera to sense the world are so close in efficiency that the cost for LiDAR etc is stupid. That’s why many LiDAR based fsd companies are old and the new ones are all camera based.
LiDAR main advantage was distance and range sensing. 5 cameras, and video stocking along with the software solved that 5 years ago. Hence why the talk of fusion multiple sensor types together is stupid. You can do range and distance with cameras pretty well
mlamping OP t1_j6ls9cv wrote
Exactly, dude came on here saying “single modality sensors”. As if humans that are deaf can’t drive with just their eyes. Humans have been doing it with 2 cameras for a century (2 eyes).
He probably works at a startup as an intern or junior ai engineer.
Tesla sticthes like 5 cameras. The problem isn’t object detection, or localization it’s decision making (path finding and planning) to get from A to B that is the hard part.
He has no clue
That-Whereas3367 t1_j6mbj9m wrote
A human brain literally has >10 orders of magnitude more processing power than an 'autonomous' vehicle.
Anybody who thinks FSD is is just a matter of more data and lines of code is a fucking idiot.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6lt1m2 wrote
There is no way he is a junior ai engineer. There is no way he is a ai engineer period
mlamping OP t1_j6ltmk3 wrote
🤣
mlamping OP t1_j6lm119 wrote
I think you’re an idiot.
The best ai minds (Andrew ng, Andrej kaparthy, bunch of open ai engineers I know) all have Teslas and all believe Tesla is poised to solve full self driving first.
“Single modality” 🤣 F off, stop trying to talk like you know any of this. Sensing is done, and is already agreed upon in the industry, cameras aren’t the problem. Decision making is the problem, ie neural nets and if you had a Tesla and the latest beta, you’d know they’re fucking close
I hate it when people try to act as if they know anything
cesvilmal t1_j6lns1x wrote
It's 100% a sensing problem. I work in the industry. But I guess no use arguing with a fanboy who thinks "single modality" is an outlandish term but unironically says "neural nets"
I'm sorry Elon took you for your pre paid fsd.
Disclaimer: I hold no positions, short or long, in that dumpster fire of a company.
mlamping OP t1_j6lord0 wrote
If we battled credentials, I’d bet you wouldn’t hold a candle to me.
But I digress. “Single modality” sounds like 2008 wants their machine learning and hand crafted features selection. Assuming you meant the use of different types of senors. Because Tesla neural network stack is a multi modal, multi task, multi net. But I’m assuming you know that already because “you work in the industry”.
We both here, so we’re both regards, so to anyone reading this wondering who is right, google Andrej kaparthy or any ai expert like lex Friedman.
And don’t believe idiots like above
cesvilmal t1_j6lpziy wrote
Well autonomous driving and computer vision are literally what I get paid to do every day... And weird you keep flexing other people's achievements...
It's not a matter of machine learning, the world mapping required for fsd is simply not possible with 2d pixel maps. It doesn't matter what algorithms or AI you have, the data you are feeding it is inherently not enough. Both waymo and cruise realized the gigantic blindspot of cameras a long time ago, are you really going to deny they are the leaders in autonomy?
Anyway, you keep at it bud, I'm sure Elon will reward the most loyal of his cultists when he inevitably takes over with his army of Tesla robots. Oh wait, those were a fucking fraud too.
mlamping OP t1_j6lqeuo wrote
2d pixel maps?
What are you even talking about? Tesla does video stitching of multiple cameras, 3d video into the neural net. You don’t even know what your talking about.
They’re close to end to end models and have the training data for training this, which will be their next release. Including path finding in the neural net versus A* search, which every self driving startup is doing
You still in 2d images doing classification, I learned that shit in 2012. Catch-up. Object detection is near 99.999% hence why your original comments show how out of touch you are, or that you really don’t know what you’re saying
cesvilmal t1_j6lr3yj wrote
Oh boy... You've listened to a few too many podcast and clearly don't understand the state of the art in sensors and sensor fusion. Good luck bud.
mlamping OP t1_j6lrlx0 wrote
If you believe sensing is still a problem in self driving and it’s not the decision making, like I said, you need good-luck.
How is anything I said a podcast? What podcast talks about this stuff?
Again to ppl reading this, all you have to do is search the current ai leaders and see what they say. That’s it. Or read papers that are freely open on the internet of current ideas
Don’t believe this FUD. He probably has puts.
Also don’t believe me either, all this information is freely available.
nhaodzo t1_j6lvq9g wrote
I believe you. That dude sounds outdated. I believe decision making is the problem for fsd currently.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6lqm2j wrote
Hmm… what do you do exactly? Got a link to your github?
cesvilmal t1_j6lrd8s wrote
Not trying to dox myself. My primary focus is on calibration for sensor fusion.
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6ltcl0 wrote
I mean with that description, you could be a 15 dollar an hr tech. What experience do you have with machine learning? What experience do you have with modeling and training?
cesvilmal t1_j6ltwfr wrote
No, actually I'm just the janitor at the kombucha bar that the engineers frequent. But I overheard them say that Elon bad so here I am.
mlamping OP t1_j6lsgo8 wrote
Haha nice one
Dear_Ebb_5181 t1_j6lt4xm wrote
Ha.. im genuinely curious as to the work he has done to be such an authority
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