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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7vnvsl wrote

Reply to comment by SurroundSwimming3494 in Generative AI comes to User Interface design! This is crazy. by RegularConstant

Your response to UBI is necessary in 2-3 years is to say look at the current employment rate? This doesn’t address at all that we are in the slope of the exponential curve now. Just look how fast GPT is being incorporated into MSFT. Even if you assume that process started with GPT-3 in 2020 we are basically 2-3 years out from that. These advances are only accelerating and being adopted at an ever increasing pace. I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

This forum generates a lot of this discussion because it has attracted people who have thought a lot about this topic and see where it’s headed and how quickly.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j7vs4gv wrote

>I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

If I had to hazard a guess, most AI researchers and economists would very much disagree with this take.

And I think you're underestimating the complexity of those jobs.

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Lawjarp2 t1_j7ydz0s wrote

People confuse full replacement with unemployment. You don't need AGI if you don't replace everyone. There will be large unemployment by end of this decade. Large enough to make governments do something about it

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FattThor t1_j7vycf3 wrote

You’re making a huge assumption that these technologies will result in unemployment with no actual evidence. It could just as easily turn out that instead of using current “manual” framework stacks to build apps, SWEs adapt to use an AI stack and just build more apps better and faster.

I’m all for UBI if it turns out it’s actually needed because we ended up creating cornucopia machines. But while unemployment is single digits its pretty silly to call for it.

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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7w0ki0 wrote

Sure, I’m extrapolating and using my knowledge of economics, business, AI, human psychology, etc. It’s a hypothesis based on the universe of facts that I believe relevant. It’s not an assumption out of thin air. It’s possible I’m wrong I will grant that.

However, I was taking issue with a post that seemed to think it was highly unlikely that UBI would be necessary in 2-3 years and the reasoning presented for that conclusion. I think it is certainly within a reasonable degree of probability that many jobs will in fact be displaced faster than others being created elsewhere and that could occur in 2-3 years.

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