Charlesinrichmond t1_iu9y1e7 wrote on October 29, 2022 at 6:27 PM

Reply to comment by DeviantAnthro in Rising mortgage rates will exacerbate the housing situation in RVA by BumbleBeeVomit

cyclical yes, but longer cycles than that. The urbanism trend will last all of our lifetimes I'd bet.

ttd_76 t1_iugot4s wrote on October 31, 2022 at 4:39 AM

I bet it doesn’t even last for the next ten years. I think could even buy an argument that it’s already over.

Charlesinrichmond t1_iuiekz1 wrote on October 31, 2022 at 3:52 PM

oh I completely disagree with you. And the data backs me up except for the covid epidemic, and it's showing a bounceback.

It's too early to tell, but look at pricing and sales. In 5 years it will be very clear which trend drives things.

But I'm sticking with Richard Florida here.

ttd_76 t1_iuiins5 wrote on October 31, 2022 at 4:19 PM

People were already trickling out of urban areas before the pandemic.

I’m not saying cities will become ghost towns. Just that the peak of urbanism as a trend is probably here or already past and we won’t see the kind of growth we saw from 2010-2015.

Asa small city, I think Richmond will probably stay fairly stable. We’ll gain some population from people moving out of larger, more expensive cities. But we will leak people out to the surrounding suburbs and exurbs.

Charlesinrichmond t1_iuiknh8 wrote on October 31, 2022 at 4:32 PM

All the data I saw up to the pandemic went the other way. Then the pandemic put up numbers backing your thesis. But if you look at urban rents and sales this year it showed high demand.

I continue to strongly think the drivers remain the same as the last 20 years. But current data is obviously muddled.

Cities remain amenity dense. The big flip is commuting time with wfh. Commutes used to drive a lot of urban moves way back. With traffic not an issue it's going to be interesting.

But think ex commute of why you live where you do and not say brandermill