Estimates based on a model vs actual numbers is a forecast or an estimate... a best guess scenario.

This date is guessing this us how many lives the shots might have saved.

I live a good forecast but estimating hiw many people didn't get killed is a bit of an odd thing to measure.

It's also interesting to me that all flu deaths were covid related for about 2 years.

Always verify and question the validity and methodology of the date collection.