Submitted by filosoful t3_ygmcfa in Futurology
WillBigly t1_iu9erg0 wrote
The balance of power will eventually swing to Africa, notice how they can effectively skip certain steps in industrialization such as going straight to renewables and nuclear rather than fossil fuels. This will slowly stack up to an infrastructure advantage while old world powers struggle reforming their entrenched systems
ChrysMYO t1_iu9hsd1 wrote
There is immense challenge with desertification. Its sort of what the Sahara does as a default part of its history. There is also a water challenge for agriculture.
A real key that could change them into a power is more trade within the continent as opposed to extraction and immediate trade off the continent.
No_Breadfruit_2639 t1_iucwb5i wrote
If the investors are foreigners. That will be a problem. France for instance has aquired a large land and currently a huge banana plantation is on going in Ghana. Forgive me I will get u the source
goodsam2 t1_iudpsm7 wrote
I mean having a massive desert how far away to put up some solar panels and transmission lines for basically free electricity 12 hours a day.
Million2026 t1_iu9f1mg wrote
No. Africa will just keep being exploited.
Jahobes t1_iu9mhxx wrote
History says no region just keeps being exploited. We go through cycles.
Dantheking94 t1_iua7y8c wrote
And the trend is leaning to The Arctic Regions being exploited next.
Southern-Trip-1102 t1_iucnsal wrote
We don't go through cycles.
Jahobes t1_iudwo5d wrote
We definitely do. Italy once ruled the entire Mediterranean and parts of Britain.
Back then the Celtics tribes of Britain were barely cavemen. A thousand years later and the roles have reversed.
This has basically happened to China a dozen times.
Southern-Trip-1102 t1_iue4w3j wrote
The Roman empire and britan and no where near similar enough to be some cycle. For a cycle to 3xist there has to be some driving mechanism which there js not.
KmartQuality t1_iuagbam wrote
Africa is big and cycles break
Jahobes t1_iub2kkj wrote
This is human nature tho. It's like saying we can create a government that rules for eternity.
CuttyAllgood t1_iu9n7mh wrote
You’re assuming that they will have stable enough governments to develop infrastructure such as this.
YnotBbrave t1_iu9nxon wrote
Not likely
The value of the old world infrastructure may decline and instead of being worth 30 trillion it will be worth 10 trillion in 30 years with 30 trillion replacement cost
But the old world economies generate an excess of trillions over Africa, unless this changes, Europe and us economies will still dominate over Africa. Not sure about China
lughnasadh t1_iu9vblo wrote
>>But the old world economies generate an excess of trillions over Africa,
Actually it seems the opposite is true, at least according to this Australian research.
It says Africa's economy will be several multiples of what America's and Europe's are in 2100.
kavkava t1_iua2w0e wrote
The paper you are listed is terrible in its assumption and therefore conclusions. It’s basically boils down to gdp per capita will level worldwide, and since population growth in Africa go brrrrrr Africa will eclipse the rest of the world.
YnotBbrave t1_iuac7q6 wrote
That’s my read too They predict in 2060 to 2100, up gdp will only double while Africa gdp will go 10x, because “reasons”
Maybe. If there is fails to maintain a high gdp growth, it will not be a leading power. But there is and eu are poised to best improve their gdp, so the prediction here is that the west would have stupid leadership in the next 80 years. Maybe, but hopefully not
lughnasadh t1_iuaolp3 wrote
>>because “reasons”
Africa's population will go from 1.3 billion today to 4.3 billion in 2100, while the US's will only increase by 100 million.
Emu1981 t1_iucbdh0 wrote
>Africa's population will go from 1.3 billion today to 4.3 billion in 2100, while the US's will only increase by 100 million.
This assumes that current population trends will continue for the next 80 years though. COVID-19 has already changed the projected population growth to peak at 10.4 billion in 2080 before dropping off. It is going to be a bit hard for Africa alone to increase it's population by 3 billion when it is projected that the entire world population is only going to increase by 2 billion.
goodsam2 t1_iudq5w7 wrote
Population projections for most of the world are rising too high. They keep projecting the natural amount of kids people will have is replacement level which is ~2 but from what I've seen the answer seems to be quite a bit lower. I don't think the world population crosses 9 billion but basically all the growth is in Africa.
Rickard403 t1_iu9oqao wrote
Many things have to go right for this to happen though. It'll need the proper infrastructure to maintain itself and future growth, energy, roadways, etc. I imagine increasing their GDP will help as well, along with a developed military. Their government can make or break this. India blew up and no shift in "power" took place. High population doesn't always translate to a power shift.
Dantheking94 t1_iua7p72 wrote
If they can push the African Union into being more like the EU they’d accomplish so much more!
Mackheath1 t1_iu9pu2c wrote
Sort of a technology skip. Much of subsaharan Africa went from no landlines to all mobile phones (hyperbole, obviously, but you know what I mean). I know there's a term for it, but can't think of it.
No electricity grid to all micro-systems: solar/hydro (again, hyperbole).
theoncomingnoob t1_iubl9lr wrote
the term is leapfrogging
jacksontripper t1_iu9uvz0 wrote
ELI5 - How does that give them an advantage in a swing of the balance of power?
Jahobes t1_iua15pz wrote
Because a new system is always more efficient than an upgraded system.
Going from no phones to easily accessable cell phones means no money was spent building then replacing the intermediate infrastructure.
WouldntBPrudent t1_iua5qib wrote
I get your point. This is what happened with the Japanese Auto Industry, they leap frogged the US manufacturing process. Legacy systems can be a big deterrent, like the phone/catv systems in the US which are stifling the expansion of broadband. The advantage of leap frogging to new technologies tends to be short lived when talking about private enterprises. I hope Africa gains a leading role in world affairs but, leap frogging existing technologies will not do it alone. Wise investments and social/political change will be big factors.
KmartQuality t1_iuag91l wrote
That brings the best mobile phone system, for a while. It doesn't bring modern requirements for technology innovation.
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