kavkava t1_iua2w0e wrote on October 29, 2022 at 7:02 PM

Reply to comment by lughnasadh in Megalopolis: how coastal west Africa will shape the coming century. by filosoful

The paper you are listed is terrible in its assumption and therefore conclusions. It’s basically boils down to gdp per capita will level worldwide, and since population growth in Africa go brrrrrr Africa will eclipse the rest of the world.

YnotBbrave t1_iuac7q6 wrote on October 29, 2022 at 8:09 PM

That’s my read too They predict in 2060 to 2100, up gdp will only double while Africa gdp will go 10x, because “reasons”

Maybe. If there is fails to maintain a high gdp growth, it will not be a leading power. But there is and eu are poised to best improve their gdp, so the prediction here is that the west would have stupid leadership in the next 80 years. Maybe, but hopefully not

lughnasadh t1_iuaolp3 wrote on October 29, 2022 at 9:38 PM

>>because “reasons”

Africa's population will go from 1.3 billion today to 4.3 billion in 2100, while the US's will only increase by 100 million.

Emu1981 t1_iucbdh0 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 6:27 AM

>Africa's population will go from 1.3 billion today to 4.3 billion in 2100, while the US's will only increase by 100 million.

This assumes that current population trends will continue for the next 80 years though. COVID-19 has already changed the projected population growth to peak at 10.4 billion in 2080 before dropping off. It is going to be a bit hard for Africa alone to increase it's population by 3 billion when it is projected that the entire world population is only going to increase by 2 billion.

goodsam2 t1_iudq5w7 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 3:38 PM

Population projections for most of the world are rising too high. They keep projecting the natural amount of kids people will have is replacement level which is ~2 but from what I've seen the answer seems to be quite a bit lower. I don't think the world population crosses 9 billion but basically all the growth is in Africa.