TLT is one of the 600 tickers you can trade. I have same kind of data for SPX since 1962 when SPX started trading. I think 60 years covers all kinds of markets. I have had extremely good success with SPX using this strategy.
You are right that individual tickers, ETFs will have more risk than indices. For TLT never lost since 2002 equates to 1 in 5,040 chance and for SPX never lost since 1962 equates to 1 in 1 in 15,120 chance.
Plus this strategy is for short term trading only. 40 expiry days or less. It is not for short term trends or investing. So bear or bull markets are less important but daily volatility is.
manishmehta71 OP t1_ja6n8fa wrote
Reply to comment by RemindMeBot in What TLT Won't Do – Probably by manishmehta71
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https://preview.redd.it/9q2sqifappka1.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=975cc373077b1aef41b069781e6fa4d4768195f0
My returns from June 2022 till Dec 2022 using this strategy.