I have a question; for example the Netherlands. If I read this correctly the Netherlands will reach the quarter finals in 59% and the semi finals in 35%. That means that there is a 63% chance the Netherlands wins the quarter finals when reached.
But If I also do the same calculation for Argentina (66% quarter and 40% semi) they also win the quarter finals 60% of the times when reached.
How is it possible that Both the Netherlands AND Argentina wins the quarter final more than 50% of the time. When reached.
Also; if you sum up the possibilities of the 4 countries (the Netherlands, Argentina, USA and Australia) to reach the semi finals I get 107%. Shouldn't this be 100% since its only possible that one country out of these four reach the semi finals
fifaBeastFC t1_iyonp53 wrote
Reply to [OC] Results of 50,000 World Cup Knockout Simulations by mathsTeacher82
I have a question; for example the Netherlands. If I read this correctly the Netherlands will reach the quarter finals in 59% and the semi finals in 35%. That means that there is a 63% chance the Netherlands wins the quarter finals when reached. But If I also do the same calculation for Argentina (66% quarter and 40% semi) they also win the quarter finals 60% of the times when reached.
How is it possible that Both the Netherlands AND Argentina wins the quarter final more than 50% of the time. When reached.
Also; if you sum up the possibilities of the 4 countries (the Netherlands, Argentina, USA and Australia) to reach the semi finals I get 107%. Shouldn't this be 100% since its only possible that one country out of these four reach the semi finals