compounding

compounding t1_je7g0uy wrote

Not in particular to stats, no, but I also haven’t really looked for something like that.

Maybe the only place I know that might have a higher than usual concentration would be /r/slatestarcodex, which has some small overlapping interest in Bayesian reasoning and is generally more interested than other communities in using stats accurately rather than just as a tool to prove pre-determined point (sometimes).

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compounding t1_je6a9wj wrote

That’s one case, yes. Think of a situation where the causal effect is only responsible for a small portion of the observed outcomes, so the gross correlation could even run backwards due to other factors despite known causation in part of the sample.

Or there could be other causal factors stemming from the original cause that push back the observed correlation which need to be accounted for. Certain genes are known to cause breast cancer at such a high rate that everyone who screens positive for them might choose to get double mastectomies, causing breast cancer rates to actually fall among that group. I don’t think this is actually true, but it’s a hypothetical example of a case where no or even reverse correlation might exist despite known and strong causation.

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compounding t1_j6h2bcb wrote

Expanding foam will split the door if you even slightly overfill any given compartment.

You might be able to use just a spritz of foam to connect the sides and and reduce some of the “drum” vibration of the door, but you realistically aren’t going to fill up significant space with foam unless you are exceedingly slow and careful and go in many many steps.

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compounding t1_j273tr0 wrote

Ya, that’s fine. The cash from selling the item later is part of the gift your brother gave you as long as it didn’t appreciate in value since then.

He can give you up to $13k worth of gifts per year without any tax implications at all and just file some record keeping forms for up to millions after that.

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compounding t1_j0v16tl wrote

Anything ionic will likely have a sodium ion. That includes the coloring and natural flavors. Keep in mind that there is only 0.01% sodium by weight according to that label, even the smallest additives can easily account for that.

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compounding t1_j0uybl1 wrote

Sodium comes from many additives, including from salt directly which is common to counter balance the sweetness. Baking soda is not some hidden ingredient and would actually just react with the acids they put in for the taste.

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compounding t1_j0tsqj2 wrote

Soft drinks don’t contain sodium bicarbonate.

That was used in the old days to make soda water, and thus became the colloquial name for all carbonated beverages when soft drinks became popular. But CO2 is added directly to modern sodas, no bicarbonate reaction required.

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compounding t1_iwrhsi8 wrote

Still doesn’t fix the fact that it shifts the incentives towards buying tires with low wear but worse traction (because the rubber is less pliable). You can buy some tires that have over 100k tread life, but winter/ice tires only last 3-5 seasons (less than 1/4 the lifespan at best). Making the safer choice significantly more expensive is terrible incentives for a tax scheme.

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compounding t1_iwrgkvo wrote

In the US too. Still bad to set up artificial incentivize people to go all the way to the minimum in conditions they might not otherwise. For example, “all weather” tires essentially become summer only by half tread, and by legal minimums they aren’t performing great in wet weather either. Many don’t go completely to minimums because it’s not smart to let traction/control get the their literal smallest amount the government considers safe, but more will if you put a heavy tax to account for the entirety of the vehicle impact. Not to mention it severely disincentivizing high-wear high-traction tires like winter/ice ones entirely.

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compounding t1_iwqsi6d wrote

Tax schemes need to consider the incentives they create. Pushing everyone towards not replacing tires as the tread wears down and becomes less effective is a legitimate safety issue.

And there are tire types that wear far more slowly, such as summer tires over winter… so this would essentially create a large subsidy of the former over the later. Not to mention that companies can capture an arbitrary amount of that tax if they can just make more durable tires that are more expensive but still extend the lifetime of the tire enough to reduce the cost of the tax.

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compounding t1_iwiuwdc wrote

At this scale, they are claiming/aiming for a levelized (all in 30y lifetime) cost of ~$50\MWh, which would be substantially better than the best existing options.

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