arevealingrainbow

arevealingrainbow t1_iulzj0b wrote

Almost nonexistent. Most countries are thinking “either we and our allies develop AGI, or our adversaries do”; it’s basic game theory.

The only countries I could see doing this are backwards primitivist countries like Middle Eastern ones, and even then it is very unlikely. We see countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE who are very pro-development.

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arevealingrainbow t1_itflpo1 wrote

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arevealingrainbow t1_itdvnr1 wrote

We already have the answer we don’t exactly need a supercomputer to tell us how we stop climate change.

What they really help to do is model climate change predictions much more accurately. Predictions we wouldn’t need so much if we simply polluted less.

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arevealingrainbow t1_irdthee wrote

The energy crisis that Europe is facing is a temporary speedbump, like the oil crisis of the 70’s for the US. This will accelerate the transition to green energy. With this accelerating transition and Fusion research, I estimate that pretty much all of Humanity’s energy woes will be entirely eliminated by 2100.

I made my guess of 2060 as a general average of when experts thing that we will create a super intelligence. The “singularity never” crowd is a minority that really lateshifts that estimate.

In 10-20 years, yeah progress will continue to accelerate.

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arevealingrainbow t1_irdsjjj wrote

>Will progress always go up?

Likely no. Humanity will still be limited by what is physically possible. The exception is if we find a way to create new universes or travel to other ones. Then here likely is no roof to our progress. Either way, this progress cap is so far in the future it is on absolutely nobody’s radar.

>Are we really creating AGI and it’s not far away?

Hard to tell. I am in the camp that AGI will likely happen in the 2060’s because that is the scholarly consensus among machine learning experts. Likely we will achieve many things very early with AI that we wouldn’t have assumed was possible, but also be behind actually achieving AGI.

>Won’t the energy crisis bury the dream of the Singularity?

Probably not. Humanity’s ability to create and output energy is increasing all the time. Considering increasing energy output and a stagnating global population, it likely won’t be an issue. Especially since models are likely to become much more energy efficient.

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