Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario, zooplankton- by 15%.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceanshttps://

www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

But that is not anywhere near the area discussed in the article?

Except they're wrong.

​

>The IPCC infamously fails to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and their associated tipping points when setting their own emissions targets.

Then why are climate models used in previous IPCC reports so accurate and have predicted the pace of warming so well? Observed warming tends to track middle-of-the-range estimates from previous IPCC reports.

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right

You probably should listen to what actual climate scientists say on the matter-

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/new-york-times-op-ed-claiming-scientists-underestimated-climate-change-lacks-supporting-evidence-eugene-linden/

There were some models for the recent ipcc report that overestimate future warming and they were included too

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2

There is no evidence for projected warming <3-4C of any tipping points that significantly change the warming trajectory. Read ipcc report and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating:

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1495438146905026563

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1571146283582365697#m

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/2c-not-known-point-of-no-return-as-jonathan-franzen-claims-new-yorker/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#tippingpoints

"Some people will look at this and go, ‘well, if we’re going to hit tipping points at 1.5°C, then it’s game over’. But we’re saying they would lock in some really unpleasant impacts for a very long time, but they don’t cause runaway global warming."- Quote from Dr. David Armstrong Mckay, the author of one of recent studies on the subject to Newscientist mag. here are explainers he's written before-

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/01/climate-tipping-points-fact-check-series-introduction/ (introduction is a bit outdated and there are some estimates that were ruled out in past year's ipcc report afaik but articles themselves are more up to date)

&gt;www.climaterealitycheck.net/download

David Spratt and Ian Dunlop- authors of this "report" are the same people who have written the report which was panned by scientists who fact-checked it- https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

&gt;The IPCC infamously fails to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and their associated tipping points when setting their own emissions targets.

Then why are climate models used in previous IPCC reports so accurate and have predicted the pace of warming so well? Observed warming tends to track middle-of-the-range estimates from previous IPCC reports.

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right

You probably should listen to what actual climate scientists say on the matter-

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/new-york-times-op-ed-claiming-scientists-underestimated-climate-change-lacks-supporting-evidence-eugene-linden/

There were some models for the recent ipcc report that overestimate future warming and they were included too

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2

&#x200B;

There is no evidence for projected warming <3-4C of any tipping points that significantly change the warming trajectory. Read ipcc report and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating:

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1495438146905026563

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1571146283582365697#m

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/2c-not-known-point-of-no-return-as-jonathan-franzen-claims-new-yorker/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#tippingpoints

"Some people will look at this and go, ‘well, if we’re going to hit tipping points at 1.5°C, then it’s game over’. But we’re saying they would lock in some really unpleasant impacts for a very long time, but they don’t cause runaway global warming."- Quote from Dr. David Armstrong Mckay, the author of one of recent studies on the subject to Newscientist mag. here are explainers he's written before-

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/01/climate-tipping-points-fact-check-series-introduction/ (introduction is a bit outdated and there are some estimates that were ruled out in past year's ipcc report afaik but articles themselves are more up to date)

&#x200B;

&gt;www.climaterealitycheck.net/download

David Spratt and Ian Dunlop- authors of this "report" are same people who have written the report which was panned by scientists who fact-checked it- https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

&gt;I will not be replying anymore

&#x200B;

It's funny how you can just do that on the internet(on top of having no proper punishment or any consequences for disinformation whatsoever).

Yes, models aren't 100% accurate and there are uncertainties, please answer how does that justify your assumption that they somehow underestimate future warming? It's not a fair assumption to make, since warming tends to track middle-of-the-range estimates, climate models in previous ipcc reports neither systematically overestimated nor underestimated warming over the period of their projections.

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti_ETH/status/1554473710404485120

Climate policy changes have already reduced projected warming from >4c to <3c by the end of century. That's a current policy scenario, it's even lower if you count in pledges and commitments.

climateactiontracker.org

&#x200B;

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1511018638735601671#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/KHayhoe/status/1539621976494448643#m

I literally pointed out where you are wrong multiple times. You did not read all of the links I sent you which is your problem. You should listen to actual climate scientists instead of morons from r/collapse.

&#x200B;

&gt;I treat the models like they're supposed to be treated, as a good reference and solid idea on how things turn out.

I repeat, you literally made the assumption that warming is going to be worse than what models project when it can go both ways. There is little evidence that climate change is worse than we thought, nor that assessments are downplaying the risks.

You also claimed that models "don't account for permafrost thaw or dynamic vegetation feedback" which is not true because they do account for these things.

"climate panel agreements" Yeah, you totally can not read. I was talking talking about current policies(as in, policies that are already implemented, not pledges made at COPs).

"Also in those articles those scientists talk about how they have LOW CONFIDENCE" You just took words out of context. Point me to the article and paragraph where these words are.

Why are you spreading misinformation that's not in line with ipcc report scientific consensus? You know that it's an irresponsible thing to do.

But you literally made the assumption that warming is going to be worse than what models project, and that agw "will probably be worse than the Permian extinction event. ".

&#x200B;

Do you think you know more than the climate scientists I've linked? Our emissions are projected to peak and start declining around 2030 in current policy scenario.

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/KHayhoe/status/1539621976494448643#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1511018638735601671#m

https://climateactiontracker.org/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

You don't understand what you've read. And I suspect that you did not read everything I've linked.

Why didn't you read any of my links? Don't talk to me unless you'venread every single one. You don't understand what you're talking about.

&#x200B;

There is no evidence for projected warming <3-4C of any tipping points that significantly change the warming trajectory. Read ipcc report and read what scientists say instead of speculating.

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1495438146905026563

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1571146283582365697#m

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/2c-not-known-point-of-no-return-as-jonathan-franzen-claims-new-yorker/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#tippingpoints

"Some people will look at this and go, ‘well, if we’re going to hit tipping points at 1.5°C, then it’s game over’. But we’re saying they would lock in some really unpleasant impacts for a very long time, but they don’t cause runaway global warming."- Quote from Dr. David Armstrong Mckay, the author of one of recent studies on the subject to Newscientist mag. here are explainers he's written before-

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/01/climate-tipping-points-fact-check-series-introduction/ (introduction is a bit outdated and there are some estimates that were ruled out in past year's ipcc report afaik but articles themselves are more up to date)

Did you not read all of my links?

https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/hausfath/status/1572317492781125632#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603

There's not enought available fossil fuel resources to match the total amount emitted during that event. Do you think we will keep emitting at current rate for many more hundreds of years?https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22298-7

https://eos.org/articles/how-modern-emissions-compare-to-ancient-extinction-level-events

https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/hausfath/status/1280282554889760768#m

There's not enought available fossil fuel resources to match the total amount emitted during that event. Do you think we will keep emitting at current pace for many more hundreds of years?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22298-7

Then why are climate models used in previous IPCC reports so accurate and have predicted the pace of warming so well?

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right

You probably should listen to what climate scientists say on the matter-

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/new-york-times-op-ed-claiming-scientists-underestimated-climate-change-lacks-supporting-evidence-eugene-linden/

There were some models for the recent ipcc report that overestimate future warming and they were included too

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2

&#x200B;

What about all the times it's been slower than expected and wasn't reported in media outlets?

You did not even read the article. tldr- (https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/106tuzk/comment/j3lh3nb/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

&#x200B;

Also,

Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceanshttps://

www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

&gt; worse than the Permian extinction event.

&#x200B;

Read IPCC report on impacts and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating-

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097

https://nitter.42l.fr/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceans

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

It is likely that the proportion of all species at very high risk of extinction (categorised as “critically endangered” by the IUCN Red List) will reach 9% (maximum 14%) at 1.5C, 10% (18%) at 2C, 12% (29%) at 3C, 13% (39%) at 4C and 15% (48%) at 5C, the report says.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#land

Read IPCC report on impacts and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating-

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097

https://nitter.42l.fr/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

&#x200B;

Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceans

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

&#x200B;

It is likely that the proportion of all species at very high risk of extinction (categorised as “critically endangered” by the IUCN Red List) will reach 9% (maximum 14%) at 1.5C, 10% (18%) at 2C, 12% (29%) at 3C, 13% (39%) at 4C and 15% (48%) at 5C, the report says.

&#x200B;

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#land

Read ipcc report on impacts and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/RARohde/status/1589582760079159296#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097

https://nitter.42l.fr/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m

&#x200B;

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

Where did I say or link anything that said that these are inconsequential? Do you know what nuance is?

Besides, effects are already hurting humanity.

Read ipcc report on impacts and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/RARohde/status/1589582760079159296#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097

https://nitter.42l.fr/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m
https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

Then why climate sensitivity(how much the world is expected to warm if CO2 levels double compared to pre-industrial levels) estimates haven't changed for the past 40 years?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Estimates-of-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity-IPCC.png

&gt;waters going barren of life

Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% in worst-case emissions scenario.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3

Where did you read that there will be more than a billion(upper end estimate) refugees?
Read IPCC report on impacts instead of speculating-
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

Read IPCC report on impacts and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating-

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097

https://nitter.42l.fr/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664#m

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m

https://nitter.42l.fr/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/