FredTheLynx

FredTheLynx t1_ja5x9ny wrote

For what is is worth, I am not an expert in much but I am an expert in a couple of areas frequently brought up in this sub and.... much of what people discuss here is simply not the reality.

Societal collapse in the modern sense is something akin to the breakup of the USSR, or the Balkanization of Yugoslavia. Yes these are big history writing events, but Humanity is not going back to the dark ages.

Yes the economic outlook for someone in the US at least who is ~25 today is objectively worse after accounting for inflation then it was for someone who turned 25 say 40 years ago. However what is not commonly brought up is that someone who turns 25 tomorrow still has a longer life expectancy and higher standards of living than someone who turned 25 40 years ago.

AI is not what people think AI is. A good analog for AI would be the Industrial Revolution. Things that used to be extremely expensive and could only be made by Artisans suddenly became very cheap and available because mass production brought down costs. AI is going to do the same thing but going to do it instead for things that are today created on computers by white collar workers. Things like graphic design, simple software, scheduling meetings, writing help documentation, etc. etc. We are so far from a general AI that can replace a human wholesale that it is really not even worth thinking about.

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FredTheLynx t1_j8gpjt1 wrote

That's the thing though, that is the fundamental limit of these kind of natural language AIs. They learn by volume.

Chat GPT writes really good cover letters for Job applicants for example. Because there are tons of cover letter examples out there for it to ingest and learn exactly what it is that makes a good one.

And that means two important things.

  1. They cant teach themselves anything.
  2. For anything obscure enough that sufficient volume and variety of material doesn't exist they aren't that great.
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FredTheLynx t1_j8fwkis wrote

Chat GPT automates the process of someone with zero knowledge on a topic looking online for the information on that topic and learning just a tiny tiny bit enough to get the job done.

So if your job can be learned exclusively by a relatively intelligent person spending 20-30 minutes googling... well your in trouble.

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FredTheLynx t1_j1zims7 wrote

No one knowledgeable is saying they will run out in the sense they have to stop fighting because they have no ammo.

Some people are saying they will become constrained in terms of what they can do, when and at what scale because they will become more reliant on new production and less able to draw down from preexisting stocks.

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