Ah I thought you implied Falcon Heavy could do what SLS is doing, my error and I did say 2-3x when right now i am off by 0.3x until the block 1B launches. You are right 2 of the new RS-25s testing today haven’t flown before and use 3D printed parts along with parts that have flown on the Space shuttle, but it’s a little different than saying it doesn’t exist and they are completely hypothetical. Same goes for the SRBs. Two other conversations where folks didn’t understand NASA did try and see if Falcon Heavy could replace the SLS key payload to TLI needs several times, the last in 2018, and SpaceX said no and I may have crossed the threads in my head. Let’s hope HLS and the Starship booster and refueling will meet the SLS 1B on time how ever relatively hypothetical they are right now.

Okay so 16,000 kg to TLI is equal to 26-27,000kg TLI? I was talking about 2023 block Falcon Heavy, not starship, Vulcan, or New Glenn. I will give you it’s not 3x this month, it is 1.7-1.8x, and 2-3x neighborhood is designed and assembly lines with known manufacturing techniques operating right now and has been fitted to test stands. Falcon Heavy isn’t going to get another block in the next 2-3 years, we know that for sure as of Dec 2018.

Hypothetical also applies to starship HLS and its in orbit refueling, and at least one orbital HLS tanker.

I think they will do it, SpaceX and SLS, just saying we know SpaceX stopped investing in Falcon heavy performance because the math didn’t work for non-LEO missions in 2018. Falcon Heavy BFR is more hypothetical than a vehicle and 80-90% (may be more like 98% as the biggest changes to 1B is just more main tank and SRB fuel capacity segments) of its components that just launched on SLS that will be reused for the newer blocks, as well as the Starship HLS and tankers prototype testing in Texas hopefully kicking off next month. Though the first lunar orbital flight TBD, but hopefully when you suggest, but if we adjust for SpaceX delivery estimation historically 2027-2028 worst case for a crewed NASA lunar mission.)

Yeah I am not talking about including what food/water/re-entry/life support systems/cargo load for 8-10 days with crew of 4 in a red dragon would be, as SpaceX never produced anything except really rough mock-ups and no test vehicle specs.

I am comparing gross SLS block performance to gross falcon heavy performance to fast TLI (not month long one way insertion). SpaceX has told publications and NASA what the TLI would be. I would say trust SpaceX over some random stack exchange or Quora post (which are the only people I can find referring to your numbers). https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/amp/

Who are “folks” and why isn’t SpaceX updating their sales specs to show these performance upgrades to their customers? Updating SpaceX.com’s falcon Heavy page costs them nothing and the folks could update the Falcon Heavy wiki if they don’t have access to SpaceX’s webpage.

Want to add SpaceX stated with their last Falcon Heavy performance upgrade, 16,000kg TLI was the high end without much more significant Falcon Heavy R&D/investment/changes to get to 18,000kg TLI that were never studied or developed. SLS Block I 26,000kg to TLI perf isn’t intended to be used beyond Artemis II/III, and 1B will be 42,000 kg to TLI , so more than 2x compared to the max SpaceX said they could do with the most efficient planned production block then and now. SpaceX Falcon Heavy was optimized for different mission use cases than the SLS, and SpaceX told NASA and the press that publicly. That said SLS program will likely be the end of an era for non-interplanetary crewed missions, and private space flight by 2025/2030 will replace NASA except for cutting edge research/deep space missions like new nuclear drives and unproven engine designs too risky for private companies.

https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-heavy/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy

I was using the current SpaceX Falcon Heavy sales spec sheet, and given the amounts to LEO, GEO and Holman Mars transfer window kg hasnt changed from the April 2017 SpaceX website to today, it kinda follows. Now the turn around time per booster reuse has improved markedly with the newer blocks, but the fully disposable mode kg to optimal falcon apogee has not changed since they shifted focus to starship in the beginning of 2018. SpaceX abandoned the falcon platform improvements for the next Gen starship in 2018. If you can show me where on SpaceX’s site or elsewhere the fully disposable kg to LEO/GEO/solar/mars has changed since April 2017, I would be interested why SpaceX hasn’t updated the Falcon Heavy website but gladly concede your point that Falcon could deliver 26,000kg in 3-4 days to TLI.

HLS depends on LSS and a number of other starship tests beyond LEO, without at least LEO, I am curious how SpaceX will show NASA the HLS starship and in orbit refueling will be ready. You should definitely read the 1970 SLS NASA detailed proposal, it was close to that. It used the MULE/NERVA with 500-1000s ISP that had been tested on the ground and ready for the TLI dedicated lunar presence. There was a shuttle for LEO transfer (sadly dropped to the side of the tank and landable boosters were cut in the abandonment of the space race in 1972), situated on the top of a heavy lift booster, both of which reusable. Sadly it was cut due to the fact the Nixon administration considered the space race won, and the research and development money was better spent on Vietnam.

I don’t really care who wins, just that cost plus contracting is abandoned, and we keep the speed up now we have a Cold War like space race motivating politicians, and the western funding of human presence in deep space flowing to as diverse a basket of opportunities as possible.

Apologies, I was using short in reference to the maximum amount of time SpaceX allows unused Dragons to be docked in LEO to the iSS for 119 days before risk of radiation wear on systems violates crew safety risk parameters in powered down safety mode. Looks like one dragon’s ( maybe Endeavor?) panels maintained their solar production up until 210 days before failing threshold. Active use for dragon is 10 rated for 10 days in LEO.

Hey I love all the money invested in the commercial flight program and the possibility of 100 tons to LEO in a fully reusable vehicle even if it looks like it will take as long as the SLS to develop and test. Me pointing out Starship starting in 2015 and launching a fully crewed rocket and landing it reusably in 2023 is a compliment [Edit: Looks like Elon says crewed test launch of starship wouldn’t be until 2025 most likely but my point still stands]. SpaceX and the odyssey of Falcon Heavy to BFR and Red Dragon to Starship was great, just saying SpaceX steps on its own toes like NASA did when over promising timelines on unproven technology and manufacturing, and the public misses how much they truly moved the ball forward. Two steps forward, one step back and all that. My argument was with the statement that 3-4 day transit to lunar orbit with even a Block I SLS payload would never have worked with Falcon Heavy and it looks like the press and NASA asked SpaceX the same question and the response a few months later with scrapping Falcon Heavy and Red dragon completely for Starship’s 150ton and later once the raptors were proven, 100 ton to LEO platform which will meet SpaceX’s original price per kg/LEO goals back in 2014 or beat them.

SpaceX has had access to NASA’s data on hypersonic active cooling systems for decades, but it didn’t stop them from spending several years of Starship R&D on ablative cooling before abandoning it. I can’t explain the SpaceX admin avoiding building flame trenches and shockwave deluges systems for the largest rocket ever built when China, India and USSR all followed NASA’s Saturn V lead. All I can guess is they are gonna do what the executives want the engineers to do, and in that order. Good news is after all the partial fire pad damages in Starbase, SpaceX last week is shipping deluge and flame trench equipment on barges to Starbase hopefully before the full test.

I love the Falcon program and the Merlin’s, but they fell short for economic heavy lift reuse beyond LEO/ and limited apogee GEO kg to orbit/deltaV. Starship and Raptor economics for heavy lift and deep space crewed missions are money better spent than upgrading SpaceX 2010-2012 technology for NASA.

Please provide SpaceX’s claims that the Falcon Heavy could make TLI in 3-4 days fully crewed with 26,000kg? All the articles I can find when asked, SpaceX told NASA and the press in 2018 if they couldn’t replace the SLS/crewed mission scope, and that the fully disposable Falcon Heavy theoretical max payload to TLI was 18,000kg, but without serious modifications, 16,000kg for crewed 3-4 day TLI transit.

Fun fact: This is shortly before SpaceX publicly completely abandoned upgrading the Falcon Heavy (BFR/Red Dragon) program, and announced the new starship architecture and Booster heavy lift program keeping only the Raptor engines in the late fall early winter of 2018.

When approached by NASA in 2018 for potential SLS replacement, they stated to NASA and press questions that the best theoretical max for Falcon Heavy disposable TLI payload is 18,000kg, but only a realistic 16,000kg to lunar orbit for a crewed vehicle. The Mars injection is using the 6 month Holmann transfer window, and remember with crewed missions food/air consumption combined with minimum rad exposure is really important. This means flashlight style month long journeys to lunar orbit doesn’t make sense, and transits need to be between 3-4 days.

Wait so SLS doesn’t use the Artemis rad hardened crewed vehicle? NASA seemed to indicate the SLS launches Artemis to the moon.

I would re-read the latest SpaceX HLS submission to NASA, it included major changes including rad hardening (including moving tanks of water, supplies and fuel for radiation shielding of humans and key systems).

What orbit does the ISS station occupy? [Hint it’s inside the protection of the Van Allen belts at 240 miles. Max LEO orbit is 1,200 miles in altitude.]

SLS was always a place holder until the Obama commercial flight program investments for near earth exploration fully established themselves with their focus on self sustaining privatized profitability. SpaceX is awesome and should be celebrated for its speed, but so far seems to repeat the same missed self imposed overly ambitious timelines even with 50% NASA funding. Remember 6-8 years ago, SpaceX predicted that BFG and Red Dragon would be human rated and ready for deployment in 2020. It’s now 2023, BFR and Red dragon have been completely abandoned for Starship. And in 2023, with billions of NASA co-funding, SpaceX hasnt finished a test crewed vehicle, LSS, new lunar landing thusters, and are expecting to have a successful test launch this year to get to LEO, so figure SLS as something for SpaceX/commercial crewed systems to profit from, it has proved out the new high efficiency lunar injections, started the process of scouting base locations and new rad hardening technologies and permanent lunar presence locations SpaceX and others will use.

SpaceX and Wikipedia’s fact sheets would disagree with you. In fully disposable mode, Falcon Heavy can only get 26,000kg to Geosync orbit max, and much less to fast TLI. [NASA approached SpaceX for Falcon Heavy as an option in 2018, but SpaceX responded that slow cargo LTI would be 16,000, and maxed out at 18,000 for the theoretical max for the platform]. The block 1 27,000kg to TLI is like this month’s Starship test, no 100 ton test load to LEO, just an empty capsule with sensors and minimal load for proof of basic delievery and systems integration.)

SLS’s Artemis is rad hardened according to NASA and their results from their test mission.

SpaceX and other commercial crewed vehicles for short LEO mission are allowed to be exempted from Rad hardening using the redundancy you mentioned. Starship HLS will be Rad Hardened based on SpaceX’s latest submission to NASA, and will also use the Water and Fuel tanks in the lander for part of their Rad Hardening solution.

You said the Falcon Heavy was an alternative for SLS and it wasn’t going to work even if NASA dropped everything and paid SpaceX for everything. 7 years ago couldn’t meet basic SLS TLI payload/Delta V in full disposable mode means hasn’t ever been a viable SLS replacement for pounds to TLI, even if they had red dragon rad hardened at the time. Look at what SpaceX estimated the weight of Red Dragon, Falcon heavy couldn’t have delivered it to TLI fully loaded even for a reduced crew and scope, SpaceX was right to focus on using what they learned from the falcon Heavy’s failures and used the billions of Starship/Raptor NASA money on the next generation of Heavy Lift. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Red_Dragon

And the missing 2-3x of disposable Falcon Heavy mass to LTI? SpaceX could have funded the Rad hardened Dragon 7 years ago without NASA funding if they wanted to, but felt Starship was a better investment given the large expense and missing capabilities NASA required of its vendors.

You may have misunderstood why SpaceX abandoned the Falcon heavy upgrade to the BFR. SLS is Rad hardened certified can get 59,000 pounds to Lunar orbit, well in excess of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy in full disposable mode to fast LTI Lunar Orbit by roughly 3x. SpaceX dragon is human rated only for LEO and is not rad hardened for operation beyond the van Allen belts due to huge savings in R&D test facilities, time, and costs. This is why SpaceX has been spending 7 years and billions on Starship and the Raptor program instead of BFR/Falcon Heavy tech.

Got a reference? I think the early 1960s JSLAMM engine may have been canceled for that but the late 60s early 70s NERVA space test was axed by the Nixon Administration as part of budget cuts and descoping of the Saturn replacement down to just the shuttle/LEO. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NERVA

Nitpick here: Didn’t you say the last Hubble refit and boost mission cost a total of $900 million? We are talking large numbers but rounding up another $100 million is a bit unfair as a ballpark estimate for JWST, and argues against your point that refit is a value compared to another brand new telescope with proven current/2023 launch vehicles. Want to also point out that L2 orbital space is finite and without an easy way to gradually deorbit Sats there, is a highly valuable resource. This goes beyond a purely financial argument for refit.

You asked for context why Musk reference was relevant to Thai rescue divers, figured you didn’t understand the reference.

Hate to tell you Elon has called Thai navy and their assistants pedos before during rescues. Then hired a private investigator to try and avoid a defamation lawsuit. What ever your first guess may be around that event, it was even stupider than you think. (see flint water crisis, COVID response and other trending social media topics on twitter and Reddit)