100percentwhey t1_j6dbcc4 wrote
Wouldn't the government be overthrown if the conscripts deserted?
Core2score t1_j6dh83t wrote
Very likely, and Lukashenko knows it which is why he doesn't want to be dragged into Putin's ugly mess in Ukraine.
DeekALeek t1_j6dnc18 wrote
Not to mention: Lukashenko didn’t even win re-election and he knows that he’s extremely unpopular as a result of not honoring the election. If Belarus is dragged into Ukraine by Russia, the people of Belarus will revolt and the government supporters will be vastly outnumbered. It’ll look like Iran except with snow and ice.
Core2score t1_j6dtc1x wrote
And with a much smaller military than Iran iirc
IngsocIstanbul t1_j6eg6rp wrote
And this time Russia doesn't exactly have as many spare troops to help with
Temporary-Priority13 t1_j6ekuln wrote
Russia has more than enough spare troops to assist just over a third of their overall force is tied up in Ukraine, but a situation like that would be dealt with by their security forces as they did in Kazakstan.
CyanConatus t1_j6enlkj wrote
Depends how much mobilization the Russian population will tolerate.
They are already signs of internal issues with a mere 0.4% mobilization and that will get worse with time.
Could they do more? I'm sure they could. I'm just not sure how much higher.
Temporary-Priority13 t1_j6eo77w wrote
What I was getting at is military Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus, but that task wouldn’t fall down to the Military it would fall on Russias many internal security agencies which are all essentially military forces.
Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries, thousands more will go to their deaths in Ukraine and in the end the Russian people will celebrate it as some second patriotic war against fascism. I’ve had many great friends from Russia over the years but their mindset is just something else, it’s like an acceptance that they will do as they are told when they are told and there is no other way.
CyanConatus t1_j6eqzqa wrote
While I agree with you the most part. I just want to point out this part you said.
"Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries"
Not really. There have been a few revolutions, including one that wiped out the entire family of Tsar. And I'd wager that Putin has less authority than a Tsar with "Divine ancestry"
All I'm saying is that there is historical precident that would conflict when you say "centuries"
Now since ww2? Sure maybe
Phage0070 t1_j6feux7 wrote
> Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus
It is important to realize that not everyone in the military is a grunt with a rifle. There is a bunch of supporting apparatus behind the front line military troops so you can't just say "1.3 million - 500k = plenty left to suppress a rebellion". You aren't going to send the logistics department to go fight rebels.
Areat t1_j6ehh4w wrote
Iran sadly failed, though.
Killgore122 t1_j6ho92j wrote
No it hasn’t, go to r/NewIran, and you can see it hasn’t stopped.
durz47 t1_j6eq4z0 wrote
But what if he was offered the rank of colonel?
MrCartmenes t1_j6h2wwf wrote
Putin’s Ugly Mess is the name of Lukanhesko’s sex tape
Hour_Landscape_286 t1_j6erdhr wrote
Also, after seeing what Ukraine has done to Russia, I doubt if he wants to open that can of whoop-ass.
webs2slow4me t1_j6dkdsy wrote
The problem is the country current has a ton of Russian military in it. They might be able to prop up the regime, but it would at least be a distraction for Putin.
Core2score t1_j6durp1 wrote
I suspect it would be more than just a distraction for him seeing how he needs all hands on deck in Ukraine, but even just a distraction would be disastrous for Putin. The only reason he might want Belarus fighting with him is to keep some Ukrainian forces tied up and away from the main theater in donbas.. I mean even Putin isn't stupid enough to think Belarus could hope to occupy Kyiv.
So if it backfires, and he ends up being the one needing to divert troops to quell a popular uprising in Belarus he would've found yet another way to screw himself.
ArthurBonesly t1_j6ed1uv wrote
It would be an incredibly expensive distraction that Russia can't afford right now. Not to mention Poland and the Baltics (independent of NATO) would proudly fund a resistance movement just to piss off Russia while having the international plausible deniability to say "what you gonna do about it?" Every step of the way.
agwaragh t1_j6g6vtr wrote
They have some staging areas but they don't control any territory or supply routes. If push came to shove, they'd be easy pickings for the locals.
[deleted] t1_j6f0jrn wrote
[deleted]
FM-101 t1_j6f3r4w wrote
Yes. Even people in top military positions have said they won't fight Ukraine. They fucking hate luka and he knows it. That's most likely why putin has flooded the Belarusian military with russian troops.
[deleted] t1_j6dmyol wrote
[removed]
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments