>A mistake many of us have made is to see Russia as a rational actor and think they will do what they should do. Meanwhile they insist on doing these irrationnal blunders.

I addressed this in another response, but I'll paraphrase here.

I think it's a mistake to see Putin as irrational. His power is derived from positioning himself as Russia's protector and savior.

The Propaganda:

He saved Russia from the "Chechen terrorists" (which was likely a false flag operation, and which brought him to national attention).

He saved Russia from the chaos and grotesque freedoms of post-Soviet Russia (circa 2004, when he took over media, and restructured voting - during the 1990s, free expression flourished in Russia, and it disturbed many people who felt their reality was already crumbling).

He saved Russia from the oligarchs (he made a public display of going after disloyal oligarchs, and then installed loyalists).

He saved Russia from starvation and capitalists (life in 1990s Russia was the hardest it had been in decades, and for many, especially outside of Moscow, food insecurity was a really problem, caused by global capitalists trying to hobble Russia).

He's currently saving Russia from apostate Russians who have gotten into their heads that Ukraine is an actually identity, while embracing Nazism.

He has been playing on repeat for over 20 years that the Baltic states are ungrateful backstabbers who want to see Russians suffer, and only he can keep them at bay.

Any pain that Russia suffers is because it's enemies are relentless, and the only thing standing between those enemies and utter, complete annihilation is Putin himself. He can't stop all the pain, but he can hold of oblivion.

Because of how he's positioned himself, each pain suffered by Russia is turned into a reminder of the death that awaits each Russian should he lose power.

His power is at its zenith when Russia suffers.

As I said elsewhere, there's a limit to the suffering Russians will take, but we don't know where that limit is, and that's dangerous for us all.