Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

anon57842 OP t1_iu9ltqm wrote

fed vs fundamentals

fed retreat to 3% target getting priced in, then shift in focus to earnings

1

Goojus t1_iu9o8d5 wrote

Wait, are you serious? Is it priced in to the expectation that they would decrease it by .25?

3

Joecalledher t1_iu9t3qg wrote

Fedfunds futures are not indicating that. At close it they were pricing a roughly 30% chance of a 50bps hike and 70% 75bps.

3

[deleted] t1_iu9xppk wrote

[deleted]

1

Joecalledher t1_iu9ywwf wrote

Also, I don't agree that any of these rate hikes are priced in. Market rallied on hopium and opex to the 20wk average. There's still a lot that needs to come out of risk assets before a 4.75-5.0 fedfunds is priced in.

3

Joecalledher t1_iu9yj66 wrote

Those numbers are accurate now. I looked between 4-5pm in NY on Friday and it may not have been updated.

1

anon57842 OP t1_iu9xa6u wrote

3% long term inflation target

graceful way to fold without necessarily abandoning short-term rates

−1