Consensus has been systematically wrong about inflation decreasingSubmitted by Infamous_Sympathy_91 t3_yhkw4q in wallstreetbets
nvanderw t1_iuegp1z wrote
Reply to comment by Infamous_Sympathy_91 in Consensus has been systematically wrong about inflation decreasing by Infamous_Sympathy_91
So the real question is. is this time different from previous times? and in what ways?
I have I-bonds, but I also think it will only take 2-4 years this time to get inflation down to 2. We live in a different, more deflationary economy in 2022.
Evn-erl t1_iuemsc7 wrote
It is most certainly different for the simple fact that the world is WAY different.
5_minute_major t1_iuenm8w wrote
Wut?
Globalism is dying or is already dead. We can no longer rely on cheap labor from China to produce everything. The world is increasingly becoming fractured into spheres of influence. If anything, we live in a more inflationary environment than the last two decades.
numba1mrdata t1_iugnx48 wrote
>Globalism is dying or is already dead.
“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
5_minute_major t1_iui07ul wrote
It matters about where the world is headed, not what the numbers are right now. Biden is absolutely putting China in the crosshairs with his latest move to require licenses for chip technology.
numba1mrdata t1_iui34m5 wrote
The longer timeline you look at the more globalized we'll become. 5, 10, 20 years...borders are going to be a lot less meaningful. It's inevitable, it benefits too many people's pocketbooks to not happen.
ResponsiblePumpkin60 t1_iuf9yso wrote
Exactly. There is such a misunderstanding of what the inflation and deflation pressures are. Global trade was incredibly deflationary and it’s falling apart.
nvanderw t1_iueowz6 wrote
Well, I am pouring money into I-bonds just in case this is the new reality. Things can change quickly within 2-3 years though, and go back to the status quo of the previous decade. Time will tell.
babihrse t1_iuhygj0 wrote
China doesn't wanna work for pennies soldering cheap lights anymore China is also going through massive issues of its own. So stuff gets expensive quick. You've gotten it spot on. The best years are all gone behind us.
Deviusoark t1_iuete40 wrote
See I think the opposite. I think that since the debt to gdp ratio is so much higher that things could be much worse this time around. We truthfully don't know of inflation will continue to rise or not.
nvanderw t1_iuezxxl wrote
We don't. You are correct. So best to hedge.
ReserveFiatChase t1_iufuxv6 wrote
your right duck it, puts on apple!!
[deleted] t1_iuejtx6 wrote
Why?
RealMcGonzo t1_iufow62 wrote
There are a lot more headwinds. Instead of globalization, we have deglobalization. The first world has a population that has past its peak earning potential. Population growth worldwide is slowing.
babihrse t1_iuhypbc wrote
That's not a bad thing. It's catastrophic for pensions and retirements but on the whole the planet is having trouble sustaining people
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