Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Surlax OP t1_jack1ul wrote

Reply to comment by attofreak in The Fed is yet to catch up to the Taylor Rule estimate by Surlax

In addition to all of the above, it appears reasonable for the Fed to raise the “target CPI” up to 3-4% and call it a day

20

randompittuser t1_jacoz6p wrote

Powell said that’s not happening

26

TwoAccomplished t1_jae3104 wrote

He said 0.75 beep hikes were not happening either, then did it 4 times in a row.

−3

randompittuser t1_jae4u05 wrote

I'm convinced most people are incapable of comprehending nuanced language. Here's what he said regarding 75bps rate hikes in March 22:

"A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering."

And here's what he said about raising the target inflation rate:

"We're not considering that. We're not going to consider that. Under any circumstances. We're going to keep our inflation target at 2%. We're going to use our tools to get inflation back to 2%."

So, you see how the first statement wasn't a dismissal of 75bps rate hikes? But rather a statement about what's been presently considered? There's a lot less nuance in the second statement.

13

Due-Employee9272 t1_jaclqs7 wrote

Depends, the target has always been 2% and if the fed goes changing the target, it will be seen as moving the goal posts because you can't win. Fed would lose credibility quickly.

12

AdDiscombobulated234 t1_jact3dp wrote

Instead of this why wouldn’t the fed just rip the bandaid off and raise rates +200 bps in the next two meetings? Not being a smartass just actually a dumbass and don’t understand

7

BossKitten99 t1_jacvbcw wrote

1.) They don’t want to crash the real estate market 2.) Crypto is still a threat to the dollar

5

Terbatron t1_jad35sz wrote

People can’t afford homes, the housing market needs to crash.

19

BossKitten99 t1_jaddw72 wrote

I agree, but lets face it, people are still paying these ridiculous prices, both in sales of homes and rent. I really feel bad for the renters getting waxed. Perhaps that is why so many are desperate to purchase a home in order to at least “keep” the money they pay each month

4

Rough-Grape188 t1_jado3vx wrote

Fixing the real estate market will not fix the value of the USD. Still have to pay high energy costs, utilities, and insurance.

1

Random-Redditor111 t1_jae8gyw wrote

They don’t care about the people buying homes silly. They care about current homeowners having their home values rise to infinity.

1

BossKitten99 t1_jaed27e wrote

They only rise to infinity as long as demand is infinite. Jacking interest rates are to limit that demand. Too high, too quick and that demand dies . Home prices are not what they were in the 80s

1

BestAhead t1_jaejjf8 wrote

There is a shortage of homes. Isn’t it arguable that those who can afford them should have the homes?

1

Xavieros t1_jad1twh wrote

Who's going to want to hold crypto when you can earn a safe 5%+ per year on your savings acc?

12

SufficientTowers t1_jad2mr5 wrote

People worried about the longterm survival of the USD. It's status as the global reserve currency has never been threatened to the degree it's at today.

4

DigitalSheikh t1_jad8zwv wrote

Old news- we crushed Russia, rebuilt our alliance with Europe, and isolated an economically weakened China. We’re back to 100% secure for at least the next ten years, maybe longer.

7

SufficientTowers t1_jad9odt wrote

Europe was never the threat to the USD, it's moreso players interested in subverting the petrodollar (some of the BRICS countries and players in the Middle East). Without the petrodollar the inherent faith that props up the USD as a global reserve vanishes.

Russia is far from crushed, be mindful of propaganda. The real variable is whether or not China chooses to ally with them as part of an anti-Western axis or chooses to betray them while they're vulnerable.

11

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_jadcqwg wrote

Dawg, the US has 15 or whatever carrier groups.

The only currency is violence. If the Middle East fucks with the dollar, we will just kill them.

3

SufficientTowers t1_jadd4bz wrote

The US military hegemony is only as strong as its ability to fund that. Just printing an extra trillion dollars or so in a year has nearly broke the entire domestic economy, there's no way the US could mount a multi-front war at the moment.

Not to mention that such a conflict would rapidly increase the speed of adoption of US-alternate currency options.

8

Micheal_Bryan t1_jaf2kmz wrote

Like Hell we couldn't. That is our literal battle plan. You have no idea.

1

DigitalSheikh t1_jadvows wrote

Russia can’t even handle our second-line weapons being given in relatively small numbers to a country a quarter of its size. What we found out from Ukraine is that the Russian military is laughably weak in comparison to NATO, and that’s not even speaking of the US military. Poland could apparently solo Russia no prob, based on what we’ve seen in this conflict.

China has an even worse position, since any war with them would involve them needing to make a landing on a hostile country that has shitloads of missiles and the support of the largest navy in the world by 10x.

0

SufficientTowers t1_jadw677 wrote

That is the exact propaganda I am talking about. It's not actually true. But that very propaganda helps feed the narrative needed to keep supporting Ukraine financially.

If you don't believe me then set a reminder for yourself a year from now when Russia mysteriously emerges as the victor.

1

DigitalSheikh t1_jaeclhf wrote

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Lists of equipment losses and casualties supported by photos for every one are hard to describe as propaganda. Russia’s running up almost 2000 tanks lost- at least half their serviceable fleet if not more. Comparable losses in other equipment, usually a third of it was captured by Ukraine. That’s not what a competent power looks like, and no, they’re definitely not gonna win, unless maybe taking just the Donbas at the cost of 200-300 thousand people is a victory

1

SufficientTowers t1_jaee7a4 wrote

That's a data point in isolation. You haven't heard the alternate explanation for those things so it's natural that you would see those as justifying your worldview - that is exactly how good propaganda works.

Look up Russian military tactics, going back 80 years. They use the attrition model of combat. They send overwhelming numbers (using their most expendable soldiers and equipment) knowing that statistically an opponent of even half the population cannot win against those tactics (this is well established military doctrine in the US as well, btw). In the West we don't consider such tactics ethical but they do in Russia.

If you don't believe me go look up Russian losses in WW2, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. They all used the same tactics.

I want you to keep this conversation in the back of your mind for a few months from now. You will be confused how Ukraine "suddenly" lost. The MSM will have an explanation for it that you will likely buy into. Think about how I know all this before it's happened.

−1

Micheal_Bryan t1_jaf2tj0 wrote

you keep telling everyone to nOt LiStEn 2 PrOpoGaNda, but all you spout are anti-American russian sound bites, and it is so blatantly obvious that i am reporting you for that.

1

GhostReddit t1_jadfh9a wrote

No one without brain worms is more concerned with the longterm survival of USD than a highly manipulated speculative asset.

0

SufficientTowers t1_jadfwnt wrote

All currencies are highly manipulated speculative assets (George Soros famously got rich by playing the GBP).

The only difference right now is that cryptocurrencies aren't treated as currencies...yet.

1

BossKitten99 t1_jadegj0 wrote

5%+ means nothing when inflation is currently above and steadily outpacing that figure

4

exotic801 t1_jaddpi9 wrote

First point, as someone going into the labour market, sounds fantastic. Iz crypto really that much of a threat still? I thought it was pretty clear that it was a largely unregulated market and that it would need some major changes to become valid currency(I could be very wrong)

4

ACiD_80 t1_jadfndo wrote

Its unstable and thus a gamble.

The negative sentiment towards crypto is growing fast.

Crypto is great if you want to hide shit.

3

Micheal_Bryan t1_jaf3ab3 wrote

if you want to hide shit, do not do it on a permanent ledger...that is the opposite of hiding...

4

Javier-AML t1_jaejoh8 wrote

So it's useful if you are a warlord, drug dealer or a billionaire.

2

Micheal_Bryan t1_jaf369u wrote

don't listen the guy that is predicting russian victory, and that the American military can't fight, he is obviously a russian shill.

I reported him for misinformation, and you should too.

2

BossKitten99 t1_jaee3l7 wrote

The instability you mention - is that related to the recent debacle of FTX? These kinds of negative publicity stunts are manufactured as a way to dissuade the laymen. Actual blockchain/crypto currency can’t help but be stable

0

exotic801 t1_jaek4kl wrote

Not just ftx, the market in general seems to have a lot of fraud and as of now it seems like it's too easy to magically make money appear(hyperbole).there's also that most stable coins that I know of are backed based on usd or some other currency, which is a problem when talking about cryptocurrency becoming the new global currency.

I also personally dislike the technology and the people leading the charge, I don't think privatized currency would be a good thing for most people, so in my view a govvy run cryptocurrency just seems like worse money.

Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong though, I've done enough research to form opinions but not enough to be sure about them

1

Micheal_Bryan t1_jaf3jvx wrote

what hopium are you taking? there have been a series of hacks, and entire companies dissolving, and you claim it is all a show?

Tell that to Sam bankman...freaking idiots here eating that tripe...

0

paradox246 t1_jacx1gc wrote

Because they only pretend to fight inflation, think for a moment who created this inflation in first place.

1

randompittuser t1_jacoytd wrote

Powell said that’s not happening

3

Surlax OP t1_jacphie wrote

Isn’t it the same guy who assured the public that inflation is only transitory?

5

Rich4718 t1_jacrmum wrote

It is, transitory means not permanent. Since the end of time hasn’t been witnessed yet if it ends anywhere before that, it was technically transitory.

12

Surlax OP t1_jacsfsu wrote

Technically correct, best type of correct

8

Qzy t1_jad85f2 wrote

In before inflation persists through the end of time.

Muhahahaaa.

0

RtardedAPE t1_jadangb wrote

This is the dumbest argument I've ever seen.

0

Rich4718 t1_jadbg0e wrote

Yet it is correct.

2

ACiD_80 t1_jadg3gv wrote

Stupid people find shit they dont understand dumb. Thats why they're dumb.

1