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EvilRayquaza t1_j0yet5t wrote

The one where aliens exist out there yet our presence hasn't nearly reached far enough for them to even know we're here, and vice versa. I wonder if aliens out there ponder the same thing...

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yfj8j wrote

Even with radio waves, over time they will diminish and just become a fuzzy mess, so yeah I see your point.

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Dry_Author8849 t1_j0yn60t wrote

And if you consider time in the equation, we also need to be in the same time frame. One million years before or after and we'll never met. Or a couple of thousand years.

We need to have a second home soon enough...

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Draviddavid t1_j0ynvpd wrote

I listened to a podcast the other day that suggested there could have been many intelligent forms on earth before us.

We'd only have to be gone for a few hundred thousand years for there to be no trace of us left and the next intelligent life be none the wiser to our existence previously.

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TheTimeShrike t1_j0yonkv wrote

That doesn’t sound right at all. We know about dinosaurs from millions of years ago, I don’t think all evidence of humanity with our ridiculous megastructures and plastic garbage islands the size of states are going to completely disappear anytime soon. But hey, I could be wrong.

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Draviddavid t1_j0yp20t wrote

Maybe it was 400 million years. But even that is a pretty short time scale in universe terms.

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quadriplegic_cheetah t1_j0yug6l wrote

No really. Thats a pretty substantial amount of time even relative to the time of the Big Bang. Especially when you consider how long it takes for life to form at random.

And even then, after millions of years, an advanced civilization could probably find traces of us on this tiny rock. Even after 100’s of millions of years.

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ridgecoyote t1_j0yubkh wrote

One theory is that former tech relied on biological advances rather than material advances.

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Optimal-Firefighter9 t1_j0yp813 wrote

We have fossil records of Oculudentavis khaungraae, which is a dinosaur less than three inches long that lived 100 million years ago.

If there were intelligent civilizations before us we would absolutely know.

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I_Also_Fix_Jets t1_j0ysgde wrote

That's something that gets me, too. No spear heads or metalwork in the fossil record? No landfills? No burried stone tablets from some random agricultural exchange? Plausible, but the burden of proof is still on the claim makers.

Edit: punctuation

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CalligrapherDizzy201 t1_j0yr7rp wrote

Maybe dinosaurs were intelligent. We don’t know.

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Optimal-Firefighter9 t1_j0yrj2h wrote

There are a lot of scientific reasons that we do know roughly how smart dinosaurs are, and the answer is the smartest dinosaurs were about as smart as the dumbest modern day birds.

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CalligrapherDizzy201 t1_j0yroy3 wrote

That we think we know. We don’t actually. We can only guess.

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Optimal-Firefighter9 t1_j0yxvdu wrote

That's not how science works. "We don't know anything," is some serious r/im14andthisisdeep material.

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CalligrapherDizzy201 t1_j0yziy0 wrote

So feel free to share some of these scientific reasons that dinosaurs at best were as smart as the dumbest birds of today. I’ll eagerly wait.

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Optimal-Firefighter9 t1_j11a1vc wrote

That falls under the heading of "common knowledge". We learn about it in grade school.

You're the one making the entirely unsupported claim that dinosaurs were an intelligent civilization.

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CalligrapherDizzy201 t1_j11bnhl wrote

I didn’t claim that. I claimed we don’t know whether or not they were intelligent and we don’t. How could we? We weren’t there.

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JimCon24 t1_j0yqgep wrote

200 Years it took months to contact someone on the other side of the world, now its seconds. We also have the full array of all known human knowledge available to us on the screens were looking at right now.

Wonder what communication is going to look like in 2323 :)

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I_Also_Fix_Jets t1_j0ysqf6 wrote

FTL comms? Today's science fiction is tomorrow 's investment opportunity!

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HollowVoices t1_j0yf7ye wrote

I firmly believe that complex intelligent life is INSANELY rare in the universe. Rarer than what the experts calculated. There are simply way too many factors that have to be exactly right to get to the point where we are. Other planets would need a somewhat similar set of events and requirements.

Goldilocks Zone, The right amount of iron/nickle in the core for a really strong magnetosphere, a stupid amount of water, plate tectonics to recycle the crust and prevent stagnation, a strong tide - which requires a large moon - (may or may not require a planetary collision), at least a few mass extinctions, and most importantly, millions of years of stability.

It's a tall order, and intelligent complex life on other planets may not require all of these, but they would definitely require the majority of these things.

We are a rarity, we should be treating our planet and each other much better than what we are.

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boundegar t1_j0ygg41 wrote

Another thing I haven't seen mentioned: We spent almost all of our million years in the Stone Age. What if there are a dozen species we would recognize as "intelligent" sprinkled throughout the galaxy... and they're all hunter-gatherers?

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Manarus t1_j0yh6lx wrote

Or due to distance we could only see the time when they were in the stone age or before

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escaai t1_j0ys8ct wrote

I think Fermi's Paradox talks about this. It would mean that the other civilization started almost at the same time as us (50-80k years is literally a second in the grand scheme of things). If they're behind us, it would mean that we're the first, hence we won't mean anyone until we discover them. If they're first, we would see the domination of their galaxy (if it's close enough to us). The first one makes it even more unlikely added to the other necessary things for life to begin (2 simultaneous life forms starting).

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boundegar t1_j110tid wrote

Well that's the way it is in Traveller - but that's TTRPG, not reality. All of the "Major Races" started colonizing the stars in about the same century, so that when they find each other, both sides are strong. That makes for a better game, but there's no reason it's likely to happen.

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AnotherClicheName96 t1_j0yhd85 wrote

Billions of years of beauty and blind luck and yet we still fight over petty little things. Really wish world leaders would open their eyes to how miraculous it truly is that we get to be here.

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FlunkStone t1_j0ykll6 wrote

Yet insanely rare can mean billions of planets that possibly have intelligent life. Universe is just too damn big.

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Till_Complex t1_j0yo8h2 wrote

Other theories are fun and nice, but this is my most feasible guess.

99.99% of all life in the universe could be basic microbes and that's still much, much more than enough for several other space-faring lifeforms to exist.

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HollowVoices t1_j0yonk5 wrote

I'm with you 100% on that. There's DEFINITELY life out there. It's just 99% or more are microorganisms, single celled dudes and their slightly more complex buddies.

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r55r44 t1_j0yoqyk wrote

Yeah the problem is we have a sample size of 1 for intelligent life, so trying to guess (with any actual degree of confidence) how many other planets have it as well is impossible. Maybe one day we'll have a much better understanding of every scientific field and will be able to offer a decent explanation, but we're nowhere near that.

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kyinfosec t1_j0yp02w wrote

I've read that our large moon intercepts many asteroids that would have stopped development and the same could be said that larger planets farther away planets like Jupiter and Saturn are also needed to keep asteroids away.

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returnFutureVoid t1_j0yqv4l wrote

Don’t forget Jupiter with its size and huge gravitational pull. The asteroid belt also.

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JimCon24 t1_j0yqs23 wrote

Depends, our concept of intelligence is extremely narrow, really we just base it on how good we are with tools and communication. There could be life out there that developed a completely different form of consciousness that we couldn't even recognize as life or intelligent.

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HollowVoices t1_j0yui76 wrote

Honestly, the scariest thing to me when it comes to intelligent life in space, is an intelligent hive mind.

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figl4567 t1_j10bw95 wrote

Hive mind civilizations would be amazing to study. I'm more scared of an galaxy devouring ai.

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androk t1_j0ystbp wrote

Also, why would evolution necessarily push towards a truly intelligent species? Humans were pushed to something like 30 breeding pairs (people theorize) If they had died the earth would have a vastly biodiverse set of life, but no civilization.

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MiamiMedStudent t1_j0ygwia wrote

You're looking at things with an earthly brain . Get rid of all the scientific facts because physics outside of our atmosphere is much different. So if you take your human created laws into that sphere you will be confused.

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HollowVoices t1_j0yoapd wrote

Scientific facts, physics, and laws don't really change if you're a different planet... That stuff's constant, bro.

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MiamiMedStudent t1_j196nk0 wrote

Actually thats completely wrong . Thats where metaphysics comes from. They noticed that in space the laws we know on earth aren't the same. I'm the dumbest guy but im sure that in space gravity changes. Therefore physics changes. Do you know what entropy is? How the fuck is there entropy with no gravity.

You're someone with a much better vocabulary then me id expect this to be low hanging fruit for you

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19429-laws-of-physics-may-change-across-the-universe/

Shoutout to the 3 idiots that upvoted you. Dont know how to disseminate information. Took 1 Google search

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Wash_your_mouth t1_j0yqmlg wrote

Yes. When people say something like "of course there are aliens, there are trillions of starts out there" I always think trillions is a very very small amount for that argument.

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CalligrapherDizzy201 t1_j0yrep2 wrote

Where’s this millions of years of stability you speak of?

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HollowVoices t1_j0yuu2x wrote

It's been pretty stable these last 64 million years. Otherwise we wouldn't be here. No catastrophic solar flares/storms, no additional asteroids/comets, relatively quiet volcanic activity... Really all we've had to deal with since the dinos are the cyclic ice ages.

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BigFatM8 t1_j0ysmca wrote

That's not a very open way to look at it though. What makes you so sure that an intelligent, complex species would need all those things at all? You can only say all that because your only sample is every species on earth.

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HollowVoices t1_j0yuzkl wrote

Because so far, we're the only example we have. Could intelligent life exist elsewhere in the universe that didn't have all that we had? Sure. Entirely possible, but not super probable based on what we know/understand.

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BigFatM8 t1_j0yx123 wrote

Understandable but does that really matter when we know so little?

It's like someone from an isolated Tribe saying it's not super probable to travel to the moon based on their info.

When we're talking about Space, we are probably even more clueless than that Tribe.

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coffeebonez99 t1_j0zbhek wrote

btw I watched like 3 videos and am speaking from what I remember so please point out anything that I share if its wrong

the natural way solar systems form and then settle over time is extremely rhythmic, consistent, and repeated on a scale that is almost infinite to us

been watching lex Fridman and saw a podcast of him speaking to an astronomer, I can't find it now but I'll try to soon and link it. his name was Bork or Bjork I think, and he's a white dude with a stylish haircut if u look at thumbnails to find him

I'll try to explain what I remember and some is going to be wrong, watch it though it was really good: he speaks about how during the course of every solar system, it starts out chaotic. collisions every second. as it settles, and more collisions happen, more settling also happens. eventually, all the asteroids and comets form an oort cloud around the solar system. an insane amount of massive rocks and fragments that are all moving right beside eachother- give it long enough and they find their own orbit around the sun that is collisionless. ours hasn't settled long enough for these asteroids to have found their own collisionless and synchronous orbits, and you see this twice a year when earth passes through the taurid meteor stream- where Earth's circular orbit aligns with 2 points on the oval-shape orbit of these asteroids. nasa just bumped a threatening taurid meteor actually

basically what I'm getting at is that, it sounds like, every solar system, over time, settle and fall into a kind of golden age in terms of the "chaos" that is space, the perfect amount of chaos for life to begin and thrive. the sun being at a life supporting temperature + having a long life span remaining, the planets have accumulated much of the material debris vis their own gravity/moons, and the outer asteroid belt has also settled enough(still millions+ of collisions happening out there every second but is fairly contained in some way or another, and maybe even acts as a filter for catching the huge stray objects that can hit the inner planets)

just makes u wonder, how many times has earth really been wiped out by a meteor/floods caused by meteors and covered up with earth? if u watch Ancient Apocalypse on Netflix, it's amazing how far back civilizations go, so much further back than I realized- Egypt even is so much older than we thought. could be hundred thousand years+ that humans have been building huge cities and being wiped out

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positive_charging t1_j0yed5u wrote

Space is really really big.

There are alien civilisations out there. However, the technology to traverse the distances in mortal lifetimes is very difficult to achieve

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RantControl t1_j0yfl1y wrote

Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggling big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space. Listen; when you're thinking big, think bigger than the biggest thing ever and then some. Much bigger than that in fact, really amazingly immense, a totally stunning size, real 'wow, that's big', time. It's just so big that by comparison, bigness itself looks really titchy. Gigantic multiplied by colossal multiplied by staggeringly huge is the sort of concept we're trying to get across here.

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positive_charging t1_j0yg0fi wrote

God bless you Douglas Adams

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DuncanGilbert t1_j0yn62o wrote

Every single time someone even suggests the word space and big together I see this quota and I'm over it

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yffye wrote

Its also basically impossible with our current tech. Traveling at the speed of light requires negative mass, which is impossible with current knowledge.

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ferrel_hadley t1_j0yjpjr wrote

It would take a couple of hundred thousands of years for self replicating machines to be at every star in the galaxy. Size of the galaxy only really applies to single points.

If they exist they are either already here or have zero interest in other societies.

The thing is whatever the answer is it has to be a general one, it has to be every technological society follows the same path and does not explore.

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Shorts_Man t1_j0ylk54 wrote

>It would take a couple of hundred thousands of years for self replicating machines to be at every star in the galaxy.

This is a reason that I think we might be one of the first technological civilizations in the galaxy. If we still exist as a species in 100,000 years we will have undoubtedly spread to other star systems while broadcasting obvious techno signatures to any species with at least our current technology. 100,000 years is a blink of an eye in cosmological terms. If there were previous intelligent civilizations you would think that one of them would become space faring and we would have observed something unnatural by now.

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hilberteffect t1_j0ys9na wrote

Your argument has multiple fallacies and makes assumptions that may not hold.

- Anthropocentrism and convergent evolution. Why should extraterrestrial civilizations resemble ours in any way? Their neural architecture, senses, communication methods, technology, culture, and prime directives could be as unrecognizable to a human as humans' to a fruit fly. Maybe they evolved on a planet bathed in radiation from numerous sources and have sense organs that allow them to communicate with each other by transmitting and receiving X-rays. What if this radiation prevented them from making accurate astronomical observations beyond their planet, thereby severely limiting their scientific progress? Or what if the particular operation of their brains makes them completely disinterested in space exploration? We can't rule anything out. On a related note, you seem to assume that the development and use of specific technologies for broadcasting signals to the universe is inevitable for any intelligent civilization. There's no reason to suppose that. Aliens could be using different bandwidths than we do, or a different technology altogether.

- The cosmological timescale argument cuts both ways. We've had the technology for detecting non-visible astronomical radiation for less than a century. This is a vanishingly small window of opportunity. The last signals from an extinct civilization could've easily passed our planet eons ago - or conversely, may have yet to arrive.

- I don't think you fathom how large space really is. There could be thousands of space-faring civilizations zipping around the Milky Way, and the odds that any one encounters another during their existence overlap window would still be infinitesimally small. For all we know, a civilization near the center of the Milky Way could have developed near-light speed travel 20,000 years ago, packed their bags, and took off in our direction. If so, they've still got another 6,000 years to go (from our frame of reference). And unless their heading is reallllllyyy precise, they could easily overshoot our humble Solar System with neither civilization ever being the wiser.

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seanrm92 t1_j0ysff0 wrote

The implicit assumption is that not only does a technologically advanced society exist, but they also have the ability and desire to create space-faring self-replicating robots. So, on top of the other restrictions involved with the Fermi paradox, you're adding: Being on a planet where the gravity isn't too strong for space launches using available materials. A society that wants to spread out into space and has the technological, economic, and political will to do so. And also having self-replicating robots that actually succeed at their mission.

This would be miraculously rare. Maybe something on the order of one in every few thousand galaxies has such a society. There's no guarantee that even we humans would be able to achieve that.

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JimCon24 t1_j0yr6ij wrote

Depends on how we look at it. There was a time ships always stuck to the coast line because the ocean was too vast and dangerous. Modern ships just sail right over the waves. Deserts use to be impassable, now we just fly over them.

The universe is going to get a lot smaller when we have billions of self replicating space folding probes traversing the galactic mega clusters.

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_islander t1_j0ykevc wrote

That’s because we’re thinking in mortal lifetimes. I believe we humans are not too far -relatively- from trans humanism and eternal life, which would remove some of these obstacles

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shauny2807 t1_j0ydtse wrote

Dark forest but that’s the scariest option. I hope it’s more rare earth

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Shorts_Man t1_j0yk6rt wrote

The dark forest hypothesis is terrifying. Maybe one day being a violent, defensive nuclear species will pay off if some local bullies decide to try us.

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Elongated_Mayonnaise t1_j0yonjz wrote

It is very scary to think about regarding that we are the ones screaming while everyone else is silent (or at least we can't detect their screams) but also exciting!

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BangAverage90 t1_j0yew9z wrote

With the Universe constantly expanding coupled with the fact it take a extremely long time to travel vast distances.. other life forms in the universe wouldn't even be observing us due to the fact they be seeing us millions of years ago or even more.

Could be a space civilization out there that's observed earth but the light could be say 600m years old

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ferrel_hadley t1_j0yiaui wrote

>With the Universe

The only aliens we will ever contact will be in this Galaxy. Its the only place that is plausibly close enough. If they are frequent in the Galaxy, they are frequent everywhere. If they are infrequent in this Galaxy they are likely so many galaxies far away that their messages would only reach us from a long long time ago and be beyond faint.

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BangAverage90 t1_j13bmr8 wrote

With our own galaxy being 52,000 light years across ( rough estimate), it bring me back to my point.... roughly 5,875,000,000,000 miles is a light year so to speak, if there is anything in our own galaxy, they wouldn't be observing us let alone the human race. So I fully doubt we will ever make contact with another life form.

If we were to, I doubt it would end well for either.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yfvsj wrote

True, but you aren't accounting for the planets within >20 light years of us. They could probably observe us. Possibly even reach us.

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DraMaFlo t1_j0yj6nq wrote

There's only 25 or so exoplanets within 20 light years of us.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yqwx2 wrote

most of which are most likely habitable. Like proxima centuari B (I think) which is said to have oceans and is a rocky planet. However it may be tidally locked.

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BangAverage90 t1_j13bqr7 wrote

5,875,000,000,000 miles roughly in a light year. So pretty much anything within those 20 light years would not be observing us.

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JimCon24 t1_j0yrnvh wrote

Maybe, but, drones are a thing, so is data storage, space folding is a theory and self replication is possible. At some point in the future, trillions of self replicating probes traversing the galactic mega clusters giving us live updates on what's going on in the universe.

But that's just form the merger minds of the early 21 centaury, who knows what ideas are to come.

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BangAverage90 t1_j13b4re wrote

Space is a vacuum.

No air, drone rotary blades would have zero effect.

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Fcbp t1_j0yex8f wrote

If they have the tech to find us, they would be searching for advanced civilizations and not one thats still in the oil age...

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yfs6j wrote

But then in this scenario they would still exist I'm guessing. Wouldn't they just wipe us out if we become too advanced tho?

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Sassycatfarts t1_j0yhquw wrote

If you're an interstellar species there's no reason to wipe out another preemptively. There's just so much room that there's nothing they would have in their tiny sphere of control that you couldn't get elsewhere. An interstellar civilization like that would be post-scarcity, and they would be more interested in talking than destroying.

But let's change the scenario and say there's a whole community of interstellar civilizations that are much older and shared their "warp" tech with others. Perhaps they're much closer to each other like near Sag A*. If more civs have access to this tech sooner then they may have not worked out their primal tendencies and be much more warlike.

Truth is we're in a pretty safe neighborhood of the galaxy. It's more like the stix, and we're a tiny tribe that you can't even hear deep in the jungle. Hell, some explorers may have passed a few hundred light years from us prospecting and neither of us would ever know.

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galspanic t1_j0yeewc wrote

Distances are too far. And, we are about a billion years too late to see signs of advanced civilizations.

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1224rockton t1_j0yf1ri wrote

It’s interesting that some scientists aren’t keen about us showing our location on the Voyager satellite. But then, it’s going to be on a journey long after Earth perishes.

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jose255 t1_j0yhaxd wrote

The Theory that we may, in fact, be the only Aliens out there.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0ypqmv wrote

Being alone in the universe is quite frightening honestly. Exciting tho at the same time.

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TickletheEther t1_j0yhjri wrote

It fucking sucks to think we can’t bend space time or do FTL travel without that we and aliens are fucked. Unless we got multigenerational ships

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0ypzj0 wrote

ftl is basically impossible too, you need negative mass to just reach the speed of light, and therefore the mass needed to go faster is just out of the question.

FTL may be possible with a warp bubble tho. Scientists have successfully created one.

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hiricinee t1_j0yk0xx wrote

Rare Earth+ Fermi Paradox. Life exists only on Earth as far as we know so far, anything else is speculation. I like it as the "Very lucky gambler" phenomenon-- a guy buys a lottery ticket 15 times and wins 10 million dollars 15 times. He then assumes that other people can win the lottery just like he did.

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JohnCena_770 t1_j0yfgow wrote

It sounds weird but the reason why there probably is life outside of earth is the exact same reason we probably will never find it....at least not in our life time: space is big. Really big. Pretty damn huge to be more precise. Even if there are a billion civilizations more advanced than humans just in the observable universe, it would still be very unlikely to ever find one of those civilizations.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yfn0s wrote

We may not even be communicating with the right stuff. Heck communication through neutrinos is possible, who knows what else also exists.

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Altaira99 t1_j0ygbvd wrote

  1. They exist somewhere
  2. We'll never encounter them
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blankbeard t1_j0ygkh9 wrote

I think aliens may more likely exist in different dimensions

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Cognitive_Spoon t1_j0yo0xa wrote

Same thought.

The way that almost all UAP sightings describe craft that "defy physical limitations or understanding of aerodynamics" is kind of a hint.

The UAP isn't the whole thing, it's the but that extrudes into perceivable dimensions. Like the top of a shark fin breaking the water.

The fin isn't the fish, it's the bit we see because we don't live under water.

Interdimensional also allows for breaking "the rules" of speed and time in 4 dimensional space, because they can dip in the way you'd dip your pinky into a fish tank.

To a fish, when you put your hand in a fish tank, a strange five legged creature has just descended from heaven.

You pull your hand out of the tank. Poof! The five legged creature disappeared!

You put your hand back in the tank behind the fish. Poof! It's back!

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0ygqo9 wrote

Interdimensional? That honestly just doesn't seem "realistic" with our current understanding of physics.

That would mean that they exist in a 4th dimension with an extra "measurement" like depth distance etc.

It really doesn't seem plausible.

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blankbeard t1_j0ygwdl wrote

The 4th dimension is time so it would be beings who exist outside of our perceived linear timeline or an even higher dimension.

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SentientThermostat t1_j0yjj40 wrote

Implausible? Remember you’re coming at this with our current understanding of physics, which is barely even scratching the surface on the quantum level.

You’re looking at this from a human’s earthly perspective.

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palebluedot365 t1_j0ykj0t wrote

Exactly! I think we flatter ourselves too much that we are a sophisticated civilisation.

If true extreme intelligence exists, would it even be physical in the sense of that word that we ‘currently’ understand?

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SentientThermostat t1_j0ykl43 wrote

Also I fully agree with the other commenter. I highly recommend psychedelics if you want to reanalyze your view of yourself, (and) the universe.

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Kezly t1_j0yj6u5 wrote

They're too far away to notice.

A star two million lightyears away could have developed broadcasting technology one hundred million years ago, and we wouldn't see evidence of it for another million years.

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The_Vanquish t1_j0yk34t wrote

We’re not separated by distance. We’re separated by time.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yr5x6 wrote

Both which correlate. Our closest neighbour is centuari, 4 light years away. That's 4 trillion km. So distance does separate us, and it would also take a long time to get there too. Even at the speed of light it's 4 years back and forth, 8 years total. That's also accounting for the need for food for an entire crew etc. Best bet is probes.

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dundai t1_j0ylfue wrote

First of all, I think there are plenty of life forms in the Universe and probably in our Galaxy as well. But life doesn't mean to be intelligent, it can be just wild animals and plants on a random planet.

Just think, what allowed hominids to evolve and become what we are now? Just a random thing - asteroid have killed big predators and cleared all the way for small mammals. What I'm talking about is life shouldn't necessarily be intelligent, contrary it has a very low chance for it.

Then, if we have a few luckers in the Universe to achieve the level of life form that at least allows to ask questions like we do in this thread, they have to exist at relatively same time and close to each other so they could have a possibility to contact. Is this real? In theory, yes. But practically it lowers chances (again) too hard that it might be an extremely rare thing in all universe.

And the last thing is interstellar traveling. We should turn to relativity theory again. We can't reach far distances now and we won't in the future just because speed of light is our limit. Warp drives, wormholes, quantum teleportations etc still stay fiction and there is no guarantee scientific progress no matter how high it is may open interstellar travels for us even in the far-far future.

That's why I think alien contacts are rare in the Universe, but primitive (simple animals, microorganisms, plants) or isolated life forms might be pretty common. Maybe we even can't imagine how it's common.

TL;DR: Intelligent alien contact might happen if:

  1. Life has to be born on a planet with required conditions.
  2. It has to reach a high level of intelligence.
  3. At least one another intelligent alien civilization should also exist in closest distance.
  4. Both should appear relatively at very same time .
  5. At least one of them should have technological advances to reach closest planets and stars or opportunity to send the message.
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Knatter t1_j0yo65k wrote

I think the first question we should as ourselves is, what is reality? My favorite Fermi Paradox that isn't discussed much is based on the simulation theory. If reality is, for lack of better words "simulated", we might be the only ones in this "simulation", together with all other living things on earth. Intelligent beings outside of earth? Not properly simulated yet, but maybe in a future upgrade. ;)

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IncreaseLate4684 t1_j0ydxvf wrote

I think it's Great Filter, considering there is a lot of prerequisites for interstellar civilization.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0ydzwm wrote

Do you think others have become interstellar yet or not?

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[deleted] OP t1_j0yey1z wrote

It's possible. Or they will someday. There's not enough data to tell the difference. But we're not just separated by space, time is just as vast. We might exist billions of years after them or billions of years before. Or they might be millions of light years away. The same odds that make it likely that we're not alone also mean that it's unlikely that others exist in a time and place where we will ever interact, even in the form of radio signals

If we ever do, that interaction immediately changes the odds to mean that they must be very widespread. And that has its own disturbing implications.

What makes the most sense is that each sentient species flares like a tiny little firework. It rises up, tells its stories, and then fades away. It doesn't really matter if it happens on a single planet over a few hundred thousand years like we're likely to or they beat the odds and spread to thousands of solar systems over millions of years. At the end of it all they'll only have existed in a tiny little place in space for the blink of an eye in the long life of the universe. If they ever meet another civilization it most likely will be in the form of ruins. It sounds bleak but it's beautiful in a different way.

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spornerama t1_j0yfugg wrote

I quite like the simulation theory - whoever is running the simulation hasn't bothered adding aliens in.

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jussius t1_j0yhque wrote

I always thought that it's very likely that once a civilization starts advancing technologically, the rate of expansion and technological evolution will inevitably be so fast, that it only takes a blink of an eye (i.e. maybe a million years or so) for it to have completely transformed every corner of it's galaxy in ways we can't possibly imagine, but that will definitely make it impossible for other lifeforms that may exist to be independent of them.

So my point is that even if there are a lot of planets in the milky way where technologically advanced species' might eventually develop, the chance that one of them has developed and become technologically advanced at almost exactly the same moment than us is very unlikely. And if they had become technologically advanced earlier, we wouldn't be here, or at least milky way would look very different, full of all kinds of crazy stuff.

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awesomewealthylife t1_j0yil25 wrote

The universe is huge and old, the simple fact is Earth was likely given life via pansperma, and aliens most likely have been visiting for hundreds of millions of years.

The sun is only like 5 billion years old while earth is 4.5b. The universe Is 13b years old and likely has has had a trillion different species come and go. The number that could create spacecraft have probably been in the hundreds.

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WontStopAtSigns t1_j0yjba4 wrote

Dark forest, but not because of the half-crap game theory explanation, but because others would have to actively be trying to get noticed, all the time, for any other civilization to spot them. This and the beacon they would have to build to come out of the dark would be a huge drain on their resources to build (probs). Alternatively, they would have to be searching for us already, which invalidates the dark forest business on a variety of points.

We exist. That's the only real data point here, so... what we find would most likely be similar to us. We are not noticeable, and would probably have leadership freak-outs if approached, so it still works for me as an explainer.

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JuliusPepperfield t1_j0yk09v wrote

The universe is just far too massive. It’s a statistical improbability that of the hundreds of billions of stars in each of the hundreds of billions of galaxies in our observable universe alone, not a single one harbors intelligent life.

Not only the vastness of space, you also have to consider time.

We not only have to be close enough for space travel, we have to be in the same timeline on a scale of billions of years.

Life is probably abundant in the universe, it’s just too big and too old.

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ZazaB00 t1_j0yk4q3 wrote

As much as I want it all to be true, the time it’d take for communications to occur, either civilization could long be gone. Millions of light years apart and we can’t even fathom how to travel at the speed of light.

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killroy_4703 t1_j0ykiqs wrote

Aliens are out there, but we won't meet them in this lifetime

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yrc3l wrote

Most likely we won't. I have some hope. It's either they come to us or we just need to reach the technological singularity.

This is projected to be reached by 2040/50, where AI will be able to produce technology at an ever increasing rate. That includes space travel.

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Obi_Sirius t1_j0ylibi wrote

The Fermi Paradox is no paradox at all. Seti can only detect a civilization like ours out to about 32 LY. That's just general radiation going out in all directions (google it). At best we could detect out to 2000 LY but that would have to be a REALLY strong RADAR type signal pointed directly at the receiver. They are not hiding, we are simply blind and deaf. SETI is basically a waste of money unless we are looking for really close neighbors. And on a galactic scale even 2000 LY is close.

All these other theories are based on a false assumption.

Rare Earth assumes there is something unique about Earth. There is nothing to indicate that the very same physical processes that happen here on Earth are any different than what goes on in the rest of the universe.

Dark Forest? See FP above. Just because we can't see them doesn't mean they are hiding. Though if they got to know us they might want to back away slowly.

Great Filter. Now there's a real possibility. Though even the entire galaxy has a Goldilocks zone. There are very large areas of the galaxy that probably have no life but our GZ is enormous. IIRC it starts about 1/3 of the way out from the galactic core and only ends at the very fringes. It's not just radiation but the chemical make up of the area. I forget the specifics.

Are we alone? The odds are very much against it. Can we detect them? The odds are also very much against it. And even if we keep on using RF for another thousand years that is still a very small window of opportunity to spot us. I use us as an example because we are basically looking for someone like us, technologically speaking.

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CuriousCatAri t1_j0ymooe wrote

Maybe by the time a civilization becomes tech advanced enough to travel thru space there isn’t really a civilization left. Only AI. No deep seated quest for exploration

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PrimearchClaire t1_j0yn6qc wrote

Great Forest unfortunately always made the most sense to me

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amitym t1_j0yo1sb wrote

>Which theory about aliens is the most likely?

The theory where there's nothing that needs to be explained, because statistically speaking we haven't been listening for any length of time, and haven't been anywhere.

Asking which exotic theory is most likely is like growing up on a remote homestead somewhere, where you've never been anywhere else and never seen anyone else, and speculating about what apocalyptic scenario killed everyone and destroyed everything.

It's jumping to a conclusion. Let's try leaving the homestead and spending some time somewhere, before we conclude that there's no one out there.

(Technically I guess that's a form of Rare Earth, where "rare" is defined uselessly as "less than ubiquitous.")

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JimCon24 t1_j0yq72k wrote

There's a theory that says that life didn't even start on earth.

We found a bacteria that can survive being completely frozen, and can survive extremely high temperatures and high levels of radiation. We've also found Mars rock that may have contained microscopic bacteria fossils on Earth. Basically there's a good chance that the universe is filled with meteorites full of single-celled organisms are just waiting to crash some sort of planetary body where they can start dividing again.

3 billion years ago one of those meteorites hit Earth and that's why we're all here right now.

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Netsrak69 t1_j0yfhml wrote

I assume 1 race per galaxy. So we are likely alone in the Milky-way galaxy.

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roxeal t1_j0yfv9o wrote

Did you ever think that we seem just as alien to them, as they do to us?

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yfyff wrote

Yeah. Language completely different and so on.

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MrMooey12 t1_j0yik5k wrote

The scariest thing would be if they also spoke English or another language of the human race

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yqtns wrote

That would only be if they lived amongst us, or studied us enough. They would probably only sound like a new English speaker.

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ausrandoman t1_j0yfvqa wrote

That the lifetime of a civilisation is such a tiny fraction of the time required for a signal to reach another civilisation that none of them will ever find another.

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jjbananafana t1_j0yh01i wrote

All theories are probably correct in one way or another. Universe being infinite, leads to infinite chances at intelligent life. Which also leads to infinite scenarios determining a civilizations fate. We also might be early to the game as well, universe isn't that old.

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Themicroscoop t1_j0yhge3 wrote

Interdimensional is more likely than interstellar travel. Aliens are more likely to be from another universe rather than from another star system.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yps8h wrote

How would that work tho? Again this is getting to theoretical stuff, but how would you travel across dimensions?

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ferrel_hadley t1_j0yi2kc wrote

Rare Earth hypothesis. Early on in this people realised that if aliens exist they would have been here long time ago. Science fiction authors like AC Clarke wrote books about aliens leaving watchers (The Sentinel ) and scientists like Fermi asked why they were not here with von Neumann machines.

I think that all other explanations have to have additional parameters such as a generalised desire not to communicate or a generalised desire to leave some societies isolated. It just violates the principle of parsimony for anything else to be the most likely explanation.

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GavrielBA t1_j0yllni wrote

This: https://youtu.be/F6Bl9GOAncs

Basically they're all around us and really want to reveal themselves to the whole planet but humans ATM are scared violent little shits so they're waiting for when we finally advance, as a humanity.

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MoogProg t1_j0yn5yk wrote

That we are the first advanced technological life in the Universe. Fits the facts in evidence and the only arguments against it are statistical, and so they do not rule out us being the only life.

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JR2005 t1_j0yo67c wrote

What if aliens were the ones to hold the key to human's continued existence? What if they were far more advanced and could lend their technology so we could escape to another planet they know of?

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OhHowdyDoody t1_j0yp1bq wrote

If there are aliens out there and they have the physical form and ability to travel unthinkable distance, i would assume they would WANT to contact us. Everything on this planet be it nature or human technology would be THE GOLDMINE for any alien species traveling great distance. They wouldn’t want to just kill us all off, they probably spent the last 10million years attempting to find life. Also that makes me think that IF they had the technology to travel, they may very well have the means to detect life from far away as well. By far i mean way farther than any distance we can imagine. Otherwise it truly is a pointless mission to just launch away into space even with the ability to. So who knows

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yrss4 wrote

Not necessarily. We may just people little annoying political monkeys who destroy themselves. They may only contact us once we've settled all our socio-political issues.

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slickhedstrong t1_j0yp2je wrote

great filter and fermi paradox are basically the same thing

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Petal_Chatoyance t1_j0ypkhg wrote

I used to think it wrong, but I am increasingly convinced of the Rare Earth Hypothesis - that life is exceedingly unlikely to occur, and when it does, even more exceedingly unlikely to develop into a technological species. So very many incredibly unlikely things have to be just precisely right for a tech species like humans to rise up. I find it more and more reasonable that earth may literally be the only planet with advanced life forms in the entire cosmos.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0ypo6a wrote

rare earth is a good contender, I would also agree, but doesn't that mean that there's still a possibility of an advanced species?

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Petal_Chatoyance t1_j0ysfhw wrote

If by 'possibility' you mean a '1' divided by a number greater than Graham's Number, then sure. By 'rare', I mean desperately rare. Rare beyond human imagination. Rare enough that quintillions of universes could bloom and only one have a species capable of technology.

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nine8whatwhat t1_j0ypu0x wrote

None have figured out wormhole tech, which isn’t surprising since relativity is incomplete so there be restrictions in the complete theory

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yqe3p wrote

Wormholes would mean space-time being sort of distorted in a way, in the process allowing visible light to be seen on both ends, and allowing physical objects tk pass through. It seems very theoretical at this point.

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Yamidamian t1_j0yrsav wrote

Great Filter.

To go interstellar, you need very powerful energy generation and storage. The kind of tech that can do so can be easily repurposed into making really big bombs. Therefore, any potentially spacefaring civilization definitionally has access to at least nuclear scale weapons.

I believe the great filter is ‘can we use this technology to get off this rock before we use it to blow everyone up.’ Which, considering that our Cold War came dangerously close on several occasions, and we haven’t had them for that long, I don’t hold out much hope for ourselves or any other civilization.

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[deleted] OP t1_j0ys0ut wrote

[removed]

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jmatty74 t1_j0ysils wrote

Sorry about the typos.. it's clear they surpassed burning fossile fuels a million years ago.

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kaip629 t1_j0ysd6d wrote

The rate of technological development and intelligent life does not outpace the rate of universe expansion. And we simply will not be able to reach our nearest neighbor

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androk t1_j0yshp3 wrote

We're one of the first in the Milky Way. Other potential competing planets were wiped out by all sorts of cosmic crap. Right place; away from more crowded star environs that are more likely to have nearby novas and such. Right time; relatively fast evolutionary scale on earth that allows us to be one of the first. That's my theory.

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Incredulouslaughter t1_j0ysma7 wrote

I reckon the universe is just teeming with life and we haven't been contacted yet as we are too lowly. We leave those guys on the islands alone and that's what aliens do to us. It only takes one civ to get to ai level representation, which is pretty much immorality.

Given not only the size of the universe but also the length of time it's been around I think we would be foolish to think we are alone.

There could be a point where we "discover" that everyone else lives in a city and we live on a tiny island.

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shaggellis t1_j0yud55 wrote

Jesus was an alien. He just went home because everything was a shit show. He hasn't decided to come back yet.

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soon-it-will-be-2030 t1_j0yuhxx wrote

bro he was crucified 💀 and resurrected He didn't leave earth He returned to heaven for the time being

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Gripegut t1_j0zcl6m wrote

My theory is that there are worlds without number of intelligent beings in the universe....and they are all human.

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mangalore-x_x t1_j0yoh2n wrote

Imo what is missing is that physics makes contact impossible given rarity and how scattered across time they/we are.

So even if life is more abundant than believed physics might still put harsh boundaries to any contact and interstellar technology flat out not existing, together with all the other factors.

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[deleted] OP t1_j0ylhtc wrote

[removed]

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bnogal t1_j0yhrwu wrote

Other alien civilizations were unable to leave their planet because they had a capitalism system that allowed the child of rich mining bussiness owners to fill the space around their planet of garbage

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Patrick26 t1_j0ydve1 wrote

The silence that we hear is the silence of an empty field. We are alone.

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PoppersOfCorn t1_j0ye1hj wrote

In the whole infinite(pretty likely) universe or that we will ever make contact with?

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Patrick26 t1_j0ye983 wrote

Well, we can only say for sure about what we can see and detect, not off to infinity.

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