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Deluxe78 t1_j25gg7z wrote

It could have supernova’d yesterday we wouldn’t know until 2,664

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TiredOfRatRacing t1_j25jje8 wrote

Or it supernova'd in the last 600 years and the light hasnt reached us yet.

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Xaxxon t1_j25lalm wrote

That wasn't the question. If it already supernova'd then the chances of it doing it in the next 100 years are 0.

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TiredOfRatRacing t1_j25opa1 wrote

But if it already supernovaed, and we havent seen it, then from our perspective, we dont know that it has or will soon. So the chances of our seeing it are unknown since we are unaware it may have happened already.

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Xaxxon t1_j25qri6 wrote

stars don't just randomly go supernova. There is a long and predictable lifecycle of stars that lasts way longer than 500ish years.

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tempejkl OP t1_j25u61g wrote

Well yeah. Betelgeuse is nearing the end of its lifespan. That’s why I asked.

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