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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1p4rb3 wrote

Reply to comment by Sieventer in What sector are we going to see a big "anti" movement in next after art? by Crush4885

Maybe some will express annoyance/displeasure with chatbots, but thinking that AI will be threatening to replace them as early as next year is an overreaction, in my humble opinion.

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MarginCalled1 t1_j1p8ia8 wrote

Exactly the kind of opinion that someone who isn't watching closely, or working in a related field would express.

This technology is advancing incredibly fast, we are at an exponential level where every 6 months the technology doubles in ability, which is faster than Moore's law by a factor of 4.

Gasparov and Deep Blue were only facing each other 23 years ago, and someone had to provide physical input of the moves that had happened. (For the younger readers: The original 2D Grand Theft Auto was made the same year, now go watch a 4k YouTube video of graphics modded GTA V)

Now multiply that pace by 4. Welcome to the AI decade.

Semiconductor, memory, and GPU companies have all started installing/using AI to help with chip research, design, materials, processing, factory/laboratory/fabrication physical designs and suggesting novel and promising ideas on all fronts.

More of any of those and AI power increases, which can drive faster, more precise research into AI continuing the multiplicative circle.

At a certain unknown point the AI will be able to read, write, bench, debug, and improve upon itself. These are all tasks that AI is doing at a lower level today. When AI can do all of this, we hit what many people suspect is the singularity, a point in time where we can't predict what will happen after due to the speed of technology advancement.

We are going to see some impressive technological progress in our lifetimes.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1pakf6 wrote

Good points. But to be fair, I said next year, not in 50 or even 10. I don't think what I commented is unreasonable.

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Foundation12a t1_j1pcj6v wrote

What would you have said about AI generated art in 2021? Or an AI assistant in 2021?

This technology goes from being a proof of concept with very mild examples to incredible levels of performance within months.

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FilthyCommieAccount t1_j1qk5gq wrote

Lol no. Even if we created superhuman AI next year we wouldn't replace teachers in a single year. Humans and large organizations and especially political systems have inertia. It takes time to implement changes. Just imagine the "think of the children!" sentiment you would have to overcome to replace real human teachers with chatbots at the grade school level. I'm not saying it'll never happen but it'll certainly take longer than a year even if the singularity happened tomorrow.

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