CriminalizeGolf t1_iw04wcb wrote on November 11, 2022 at 10:23 PM

Reply to comment by AsuhoChinami in AGI Content / reasons for short timelines ~ 10 Years or less until AGI by Singularian2501

It just seems to me like people who actually work with and understand the SOTA in machine learning are probably the most qualified to make predictions about the future of the field.

AsuhoChinami t1_iw065a9 wrote on November 11, 2022 at 10:32 PM

You're right, because I can't think of a single person in high places or who works with SOTA who predicts 20s AGI. The only people who say that, ever, are clueless laypersons. Only those who share your exact opinion are in any way informed or worth listening to. Oh, wait... none of that is true at all.

HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_iw150o3 wrote on November 12, 2022 at 3:18 AM

IIRC a lot of people at OpenAI and Deepmind said they expected AGI by 2030, Shane Legg comes to mind, Sam Altman also seems to expect AGI any day now. I think Demis Hassabis of Deepmind was one exception when he said ‘decades and decades’ but so far he’s retracted that statement. I believe the last time he said that was back when AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol.

AsuhoChinami t1_iw1arq2 wrote on November 12, 2022 at 4:12 AM

Sam Altman expects AGI any year now? Like, possibly 2023 or something? That's interesting.

"Decades and decades" was a pretty reasonable sentiment in 2016, I think. I myself probably would have expected AGI in either the 2030s or 2040s back then. But now... nah. AI has advanced too much during the 20s, already reached proof-of-concept levels of sophistication and generalization, and each consecitive year makes a bigger difference than the last. It's just... mathematically impossible at this point to have 7+ major leaps forward and not end up with AGI. The gap between modern AI and AGI is not large enough to have seven years on par with 2022 and not end up with AGI (and future years won't be "on par," 2023 will make more progress than 2022, 2024 more than 2023).

Anyway though, apologies to CriminalizeGolf. It's unfair of me to be an asshole when he was perfectly respectful and polite. I'm just fractious after 11 years of dealing with tens of thousands of skeptics and "realists" who are snotty and condescending.