"The number of AI papers on arXiv per month grows exponentially with doubling rate of 24 months."Sophus__ t1_ir5zill wrote
You could make an argument for early stages of technological singularity based on metrics like this.
Gaudrix t1_ir6otcr wrote
It honestly feels like we are living on that steep edge.
In just the last few years there has been like +3 revolutionary cancer treatments, advancement in fusion/solar/battery tech, ai creation of art/video/physics sims/voices/faces etc.
There are so many new breakthroughs that there isn't even enough time to profit off of anything and make a product because by the time you hit market, a free solution is made available and it's better. The next 50 years will look like the last 50 x 100.
We are living it.
TheCynicsCynic t1_ir6vojx wrote
Out of curiosity, what are the 3+ revolutionary cancer treatments from the last few years? I wonder if I've heard of them or they're new to me. Thanks.
LordOfDorkness42 t1_ir6zzt3 wrote
Going to presume at least one of them is that vaccine against... cervix cancer, I think it was?
HUGE deal when it was new. Still not nearly wide-spread enough yet, but it's slowly getting there.
explicitlyimplied t1_ir84p80 wrote
Gardasil?
[deleted] t1_ir911sa wrote
It was so huge you can't remember what someone else has imagined.
There is, as of today, only human intelligence in software. AI does not exist yet.
LowAwareness7603 t1_ir7it5w wrote
I said that we were living it....behold!, just yesterday. I got downvoted at least once.
Gaudrix t1_ir7uc04 wrote
Yeah people are weird in this subreddit. Everyone is working off a different definition of what the singularity is and what it entails. The singularity is a point but it's not possible to experience a point just what comes before and what comes after. It's very hard to determine where is the point specifically that's why it's easier to quantify the closeness or speed approaching the singularity than the singularity itself. I'd say we are firmly locked in and have an obviously accelerating trajectory. We are in the endgame.
LowAwareness7603 t1_ir7uyqz wrote
I'm going to become a cyber assassin if I'm not God.
Gaudrix t1_ir7yhiu wrote
🤣 I want a full cybernetic body and then a brain once we solve the brain copy problem.
[deleted] t1_ir91jxz wrote
Quantum mechanics states that a quantum level copy is impossible. Quantum mechanics is science, AI is a cult. AI does not exist yet. You are speaking about glorified curve fitting.
But as with AI, you can simply imagine it exists of course. You an even select the date of this new technology as imagination has no limits.
Quealdlor t1_iriulsh wrote
How are we in "the endgame" if we've just started as a civilization? We still don't have AGI, FDVR, worker androids, FSD, commercial fusion reactors, anti-aging, cure for cancer, human augmentation, space elevators or arcologies. Let alone orbital rings, sombrero planets, Jenkin Swarms, Dyson Spheres or giant future things like that.
Eleganos t1_itdr6ww wrote
Same way that the space stage is the endgame of Spore despite, in reality, bejng the vast majority of the game for anyone who still actually bothers to keep playing once they hit it.
[deleted] t1_ir91bs0 wrote
As AI does not exist yet, and 70 years of AI research has led to zero AI and glorified curve fitting, at which rate the singularity will never happen, i think it is wise to define the singularity in such a way it can't be seen.
Imagined evidence, failing prophecies and Armageddon.
Hmm. That does not not sound like science, that is a cult.
kaityl3 t1_irbopkg wrote
> As AI does not exist yet
Bro what?
Wizard0fLonliness t1_ir8hzv9 wrote
Elaborate on solar fusion and battery tech, ootl
[deleted] t1_ir90yi2 wrote
As AI does not exist yet it is not very surprising that there nothing to be found about 3 cancer treatments invented by software.
Kinexity t1_ir6rcq3 wrote
Past performance does not predict future performance. Many processes initially look exponential while they aren't. This is not to say that singularity will not happen but this may not be an early indication some people think it is.
End3rWi99in t1_ir8n0r3 wrote
I am absolutely convinced the world is just a couple of years removed from a very rapid change in nearly every facet of life. I liken it to the internet boom in the 1990s but its impact is far wider and faster. Way faster.
[deleted] t1_ir91qkn wrote
But the internet existed in the 90's whilst imagined AI is really just glorified curve fitting or more generally software, which is 100% human intellect. So the projected date for the singularity is at present, never.
TheAnonFeels t1_ir6mhw5 wrote
You could make a paper! edit: Wait, these are AI papers, not papers on AI
Smoke-away OP t1_ir6t7bn wrote
The chart is papers about AI+ML.
Not papers written by AI.
was_der_Fall_ist t1_ir6ta3o wrote
No, they’re definitely papers on AI; scientific papers in the fields of AI and machine learning. AI was not writing papers in 1994.
TheAnonFeels t1_ir74qy1 wrote
Yeah, that definitely makes sense at a closer look, immediately had to edit my response lol.
[deleted] t1_ir8zze7 wrote
Sure, after imagining AI exists, imagining the singularity has started is a logical next step.
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