Honestly, the accidental route is more than plausible, small scale.

Issue is, when we see a culling happening in one country due to the course of events you point out, no sane person is going to stay complacent and wait for it to happen to them too.

It has to happen 'everywhere' and 'all at once' for the the organic route to occur globally for a successful poor people genocide. Maybe when they're in power they'd coordinate to make it so after the fact, but power hungry megalomaniac are enot known for their cooperation, and are very much known for having a 'fuck you got mine' mindset.

And it would still require the group with power to unanimously want us all dead. Lots of rich and powerful folk are egomaniacs who need throngs of brain dead supporters to stock their egos. Maybe they're th eonly ones who live, but it still means the lower classes get to survive.

One way I'd put it is your scenario is as likely to happen sometime this century as an organic worldwide communist revolution would have been last century. All the pieces in play, right motivations, means are available, so on and so forth.

Reason communist revolution never happened is in alot of places people just couldn't be bothered to seize the means of production.

In this scenario, I really think that the rich just wouldn't care about putting in the effort. If they've basically won, why bother doing a coup de grace when you can instead parade your victory to the starving masses for the rest of time (if their AGI doesn't kill them all off at some point).

Anyways, I sent see America, Britain, China, Australia, Japan, Israel, France, Germany, and so on all suffering this exact centric amongst them, sl again, it's not really feasible in scale to begin with.

All it takes is one nation with undisclosed nukes or the will and means to aquire them to secure their continued existences and that of their allies via M.A.D., if not risk using them to get rid of the problem at the source.