Dustangelms t1_jdsffzi wrote on March 26, 2023 at 8:48 PM

Reply to comment by Smart-Tomato-4984 in Are We Really This Lucky? The Improbability of Experiencing the Singularity by often_says_nice

Why are you not counting people that will live?

Smart-Tomato-4984 t1_jdtehm9 wrote on March 27, 2023 at 1:15 AM

I don't know how many people will live.

Dustangelms t1_jdwjo8i wrote on March 27, 2023 at 6:39 PM

Yes. But the odds must include them. So the calculation is off by nobody knows how much.

Smart-Tomato-4984 t1_je0l9ky wrote on March 28, 2023 at 3:34 PM

I'm not convinced. Whatever the future holds, I think that being born now vs any time in the past has 1 in 20 odds.

Dustangelms t1_je0v7ge wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:37 PM

That is true. However that's not how the question was posed. The question was: what are the odds that I, as a self-conscious entity whatever that is, get to experience myself in this time (and place)?

What is the reason behind limiting possible outcomes only by the humans that were born up to current time? I can't find any. Just because some humans weren't born yet doesn't mean they won't be. Someone from the future will ask themselves the same question: what are the odds for this lucky person to be born on the brink of 21st century? If the answer changes because they now know about more humans being born, then the answer is wrong.

Actually, I find no reason to be limited by only humans. There could be other self-conscious entities in the universe or multiverse. Why not count them?

So the question can't really be answered.