grundar t1_j401weq wrote
Reply to comment by standarduser2 in Significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions still possible. Research estimated total global CO2 emissions from the life cycle of gas-fired power is 3.6 billion tons each year. This could be reduced by as much as 71% if a variety of mitigation options were used around the world. by Wagamaga
> With a few billion people trying to lift themselves out of poverty, there is no way emissions go lower in the next 50 years.
Despite that, all major projections are that emissions will decline, and much more quickly than that.
In particular, the IEA WEO projects a 20% emissions decline by 2030. That's using the mid-range scenario ("APS"), since clean energy progressed much faster than even their most optimistic scenario from 5 years ago, and their mid-range scenarios have in general been the closest for fossil fuels.
The major reason is that the energy sector has has undergone a seismic shift in the last 5 years, with renewables accounting for virtually all net new power generation and over 100% of additional power generation expected by 2030.
A similar shift has started in ground transportation; oil-burning car sales peaked 5 years ago and are in permanent decline. Per their analysis, EVs will become a majority of light vehicle sales around 2030, resulting in a permanent decline in oil consumption (peaking around 2024 and declining 5-10% by 2030).
So, yes, there will be several billion people consuming much more energy in 2050 than now, but the available data strongly indicates that the energy they consume will mostly be clean.
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