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WickhamAkimbo t1_iwt8hoy wrote

Reply to comment by fuckyouimin in Weekly Crime Thread - Week of November 15, 2022 by AutoModerator

Completely disagree, and so do a majority of New Yorkers. Glad you miraculously avoided it, but the rest of us haven't.

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fuckyouimin t1_iwtq1sq wrote

No, the truth is that "the rest of us" actually have, yet you refuse to believe it.

According to your own source (which I'm not sure the Daily News really is a legit source lol, but at least it's better than the Post!)... The link to the NYPD crime stats show that crime in 2022 vs 2021 was 2,331 incidents vs 2,344 incidents (so LESS this year than the same time last year). And as far as the specific crimes go, murders and shootings are down while robberies and burglaries are up (which is not surprising in an economic crisis).

And yet 75% of New Yorkers are somehow much more afraid for their lives!

Why???

This fear is not based on reality... It is based on the spin of the media and politicians. Because that is how they control you and how they win elections.

I think you need to take a long hard look at actual statistics before spreading fear. (And in a city of 8 million people, less than 500 people murdered is NOT a reason for people to freak out. Especially when in reality, it is actually far lower than most years in the past half a century.)

Seriously... It's time to open our eyes and look beyond the spin and stop letting ourselves being controlled by fear.

Year Murders 1928 404[note 1] 1929 425 1930 494 1931 588 1932 579 1933 541 1934 458 1935 1936 510 1937–1938 1939 291 1940 275 1941 268 1942 265 1943 201 1944 288 1945 292 1946 346 1947 333 1948 315 1949 301 1950 294 1951 243 1952 309 1953 350 1954 342 1955 306 1956 315 1957 314 1958 354 Year Murders 1959 390 1960 482 1961 483 1962 631 1963 548 1964 636 1965 634 1966 654 1967 746 1968 986 1969 1043 1970 1117 1971 1466 1972 1691 1973 1680 1974 1554 1975 1645 1976 1622 1977 1557 1978 1504 1979 1733 1980 1814 1981 1826 1982 1668 1983 1622 1984 1450 1985 1384 1986 1582 1987 1672 1988 1896

Year Murders 1989 1905 1990 2245 1991 2315 1992 1995 1993 1946 1994 1561 1995 1177 1996 983 1997 770 1998 633 1999 671 2000 673 2001 649 2002 587 2003 597 2004 570 2005 539 2006 596 2007 496 2008 523 2009 471 2010 536 2011 515 2012 419 2013 335 2014 333 2015 352 2016 335 2017 292 2018 295

Year Murders 2019 319 2020 468 2021 488

Edit: apologies for the formatting. it looked nice when i hit enter! lol

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WickhamAkimbo t1_iwuqzcy wrote

Murders and shootings are down while burglaries, robberies, assaults, etc are up, and per-rider subway crimes are way up. I'm glad the murder rate continues to fall, but you don't get to straight up ignore these other major crimes, as much as you'd like to.

>This fear is not based on reality...

Fear of being assaulted or robbed is absolutely based on reality. Fear or being harassed or menaced is also absolutely based on reality. You even agreed above that these crimes are up.

>robberies and burglaries are up (which is not surprising in an economic crisis).

What kind of nonsense excuse is this?

Does it bother you that you just ignored a core part of my argument?: "instead of trying to gaslight the majority of the population, why not... address the crime and the policies that allow serial offenders and dangerous people to walk around with dozens of priors and continue hurting innocent people?" Does it not make sense to try to fix that?

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fuckyouimin t1_iww8bvr wrote

There's a difference between addressing policy and spreading fear.

Show me actual numbers (as I did for you).

Is going from 350 to 450 people in a city of 8 million ( 0.004% vs 0.005% chance of being harmed) really a reason to everyone to suddenly fear for their lives?? Or is it manipulation.

You keep arguing that your fear is justified. And I am telling you that is not based in reality. (Or math)

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WickhamAkimbo t1_iwwwzdg wrote

And you dodge the question again! Amazing! You honestly won't even acknowledge these policies. That's incredible. It's like talking to a wall or one of the robots from West World. "Doesn't look like anything to me!"

> You keep arguing that your fear is justified. And I am telling you that is not based in reality. (Or math)

Per-rider subway crimes are up at least 50% and in some parts of the pandemic, double. Harassment and menacing are simply unreported en masse, and dozens of high profile crimes this year have been committed by mentally ill or drug addicted homeless people with dozens of prior arrests, which is totally preventable and totally unacceptable. And the best you can do is just hope that people stop calling you out on that to your face. You don't even have a response. It's laughable.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_iwup2i8 wrote

>And in a city of 8 million people, less than 500 people murdered is NOT a reason for people to freak out. Especially when in reality, it is actually far lower than most years in the past half a century

Way to dismiss concerns.

A vast fraction of those victims are POC.

The likelihood of a black person being murdered in NYC is 19x greater compared to a white person.

Many of the victims today were not even born in the 90s. Why stats from a previous century should be relevant for them?

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fuckyouimin t1_iww3p91 wrote

I'm sorry but did you say that comparing crime rates from 25 years ago to today is irrelevant because many people were not born then??

Statistics matter because they show that the crime rate has NOT jumped in any significant matter (and in fact has decreased in terms of life-threatening encounters), yet an overwhelming portion of the population is far more afraid than they were.

Think about WHY that would be. (Hint: You are being manipulated!)

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Rottimer t1_iwv8dc3 wrote

Yes more violent crime happens in poorer neighborhoods which are far more likely to have POC. Would you like to explore the roots of that issue? Because the causes for that aren’t discussed by the same conservatives pushing “law and order.” And the solutions for it are just as reviled by them as bringing up those root causes.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_iwvbb5a wrote

Root causes have been discussed, but the actions of many self-proclaimed progressive politicians suggest they actually want to make the problem worse.

Too many teens today are becoming first-time criminal violent offenders:

  • Exposing teens to violent crimes is a bigger factor than poverty (4.7x stronger than poverty). Yet, they passed laws to allow repeat violent teenagers offenders continue. Gangs keep recruiting teens, and yet they want the NYPD to stop tracking gangs, etc.

  • Distrust in the police is a bigger factor than poverty (2.6x stronger than poverty). Yet, they keep dissemination distrust in the police, and blocking measures to improve community trust in the police, etc.

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Rottimer t1_iwvc4l9 wrote

Exposing teens to violent crimes and distrust in the police is not why people of color are concentrated in the poorest neighborhoods of the city (and the country on a larger scale).

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NetQuarterLatte t1_iwvd7mk wrote

Why do you think politicians are trying to make the problem worse?

Are they trying to highlight the concentration of poverty…. by somehow making non-poverty factors on criminalization even stronger?

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fuckyouimin t1_iww5wu0 wrote

Do you remember back to the 2018 midterms where Trump was declaring states of emergency and sending federal troops to the border because supposedly caravans of murderers were flooding into this country? (Very conveniently right before the election!)

https://www.huffpost.com/archive/in/entry/donald-trump-fabricating-border-crisis-before-election_in_5c1200c1e4b0508b21373791

And then do you remember all of that fearmingering just miraculously being swept under the rug the week after the elections?

I remember.

This was not a coincidence. It was a political strategy. And it is the VERY SAME strategy that they used leading up to these midterms. Because getting people to be afraid is how they get elected. (And it's clearly working if 75% of the city is suddenly afraid for their lives and the suburbs flipped Republican for the first time ever.)

We've seen it time and time again, since 9/11 and beyond. And it's important that we start recognizing it for what it is. They are manipulating people's emotions to be able to better control them.

Edit: you downvoted me, and yet look what came out today!

https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/foxs-coverage-violent-crime-has-dropped-after-midterms

Imagine that.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_ix9g6xr wrote

It can be both true that the GOP has an interest in highlighting crimes issue, and crimes issues being legitimate.

That's not too different to what happens in every political campaign. Media coverage of Zeldin being a Trump Jan/06 supporter and anti-abortion went up right before the elections.

The media covering certain facts according to the election schedule doesn't justify dismissing those facts.

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fuckyouimin t1_ix9un3z wrote

And it can also be true that politicians and the media use propaganda to control you.

And fear is the easiest and most effective, because fear is personal and it is paralyzing. People who are afraid tend to make bad and hasty decisions. (Hell, Americans voluntarily gave up ALL of our rights to privacy after 9/11. We created the NSA and accepted the fact that they are always watching. We install apps on our phones to spy on our online activity. We accepted being barricaded and penned in at all city parades and big gatherings. We accepted metal detectors and bag checks at every building and cameras on every corner. We accepted the joke that is airport TSA. And we've even helped them to spy on us by getting Alexa devices in our homes and Ring doorbells to spy on our neighbors. (Oh and let's not forget the "If you see something, say something" campaign that led to a nation of Karens feeling entitled to harass people on the street because they didn't "look like they belong there"!) And honestly, what did it actually get us?? Have these tactics made us any safer or just easier to monitor? And at what price to our freedom? And it's also not just personal safety that they use fear for. Do you remember the last 2 weeks of Bush Jr's presidency where they told us that if we didn't bail out wall street to the tune of trillions of dollars our economy would collapse and this country would die? There were no hearings or discussions or rational conversations had... They just backed up the truck and filled it with money to dole out to his buddies before leaving office. And people accepted it because they were told to be afraid of what would happen if they didn't. Same with the idea that immigrants are murderers and rapists who are taking all of your jobs, when the truth of the matter is that corporations are hiring less people in order to pay their executives more.)

There are a million examples I could use, but the premise is always the same, time and time again -- Convince people to be afraid of something and you can get them to agree to anything. There is no factual or legitimate reason for 75% of New Yorkers (NYCers?) to suddenly fear for their lives when the amount of actual increase in crime is either negligible or has gone down.

They are playing you. And I think that this country as a whole needs to wake up and recognize the manipulation that is taking place.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_ix9wkfu wrote

>There is no factual or legitimate reason for 75% of New Yorkers (NYCers?) to suddenly fear for their lives

Who is claiming that 75% figure?

>when the amount of actual increase in crime is either negligible or has gone down.

Have you even seen any statistics from the past few years?

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fuckyouimin t1_ixb8lou wrote

Sorry, it was the Daily News article that the other guy linked above.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-nyc-crime-poll-ny1-siena-college-20220607-7f3g7yxtqnawhflxuuapf5s4ue-story.html

And yes, I have. Murders and deaths have gone down while robberies and burglaries have gone up. But they're nowhere near the rates of past decades. (There's a link in that article to the NYPD stats page as well)

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NetQuarterLatte t1_ixbdsv7 wrote

I think murders alone is not a good metric. By that metric, Riker’s would be the safest place because it has a murder rate of 0, but we all know people there don’t feel safe.

But felony assaults in 2022 are on pace to be the highest year in this century.

I also think that the way they phrased that survey, it’s not unreasonable for a lot of people to say they worry about being a victim of violence.

Like anyone who goes to a subway and tries to avoid standing close to the platform edge to avoid being shoved? I think it’s fair for them to answer yes, even though most people just internalize that as a common sense defensive posture.

Anyone who gets into a subway car with some jittery person who starts acting up? I think it’s also fair to feel concerned.

Even if there are so few of those violent individuals, the problem with high density is that it allows so few individuals to reach so many people. It’s hard to say the media is solely to blame.

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fuckyouimin t1_ixbhntf wrote

I get what you're saying, but I'd be curious to see the felony assault stats if you have them. Because in a city of 8 million people, going from a 0.005% chance of being harmed to a 0.006% chance (or whatever the actual number may be)... while it's certainly something to be aware of and to look into why we are trending slightly upwards, it's still not really a legit reason for people to be sounding the alarms or fearing for their safety.

The coverage I've seen in the media, combined with the fact that multiple friends from many states away (who used to live here) have said to me that they "heard the city got really bad these days"... Yeah I don't believe that's just a coincidence. I think it's an intentional shaping of the narrative for personal or political gain

Edit: i actually went back to the NYPD link - the article was written in June but as of October, the number of felony assaults have actually gone down while murders are now higher - but still neither in any significant way.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_ixbiozs wrote

I think we are going to end up with 25000 or 26000 felony assaults.

So if a person knows on average 100 people in NYC (like people they normally interact with, neighbors, coworkers, friends, classmates) I think that’s 2.5M people who knows someone who was victimized by a felony assault in a year? 30% of the population?

There’s probably a lot of overlap because the violence is not evenly distributed (like a Black person is 19x more likely to be murdered in NYC than a White person). But that’s gotta make an impact on people’s perception when a survey or election time comes.

I’m with you that people from other states who only hear about NYC in the media are just out of touch and driven by the media. But I also think it’s be a mistake to mix them with the people who have first or genuine second-hand knowledge of crimes happening.

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fuckyouimin t1_ixbkazi wrote

And I see what you're saying about the odds of knowing someone who got assaulted, but still... as the number is actually less than it was last year, yet the fear has increased (by seemingly a lot), there is another factor at play here. And I've seen first-hand how the media operates, so my normal cynicism is on high alert with this one!

https://compstat.nypdonline.org/2e5c3f4b-85c1-4635-83c6-22b27fe7c75c/view/89

But everyone makes the choice for themselves how to react and how to live. I personally choose to take it all with a grain of salt - to stay aware of my surroundings, to not stand right at the platform edge lol, and to not live in fear. Because with the exception of 9/11, that has always been the NY way. :)

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NetQuarterLatte t1_ixble01 wrote

In compstat there’s a weekly, 28 day and year-to-date comparison. The past few weeks actually had a decline in many crimes compared to last year. The year-to-date comparison still indicates double digit increases in many crimes.

Speaking of the media, the media is also liable in exaggerating the opposite narrative too.

Like this Bloomberg article comparing death rates, as if people who are worried about crimes perceive deaths by accidents with a rural equipment as the same as a deaths by a random subway shoving.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/is-new-york-city-more-dangerous-than-rural-america

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fadsag t1_ixbmmim wrote

> as if people who are worried about crimes perceive deaths by accidents with a rural equipment as the same as a deaths by a random subway shoving.

I guarantee you the victims of these events percieve them the same way.

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fuckyouimin t1_ixbqp9q wrote

Interesting stats! Lots of different breakdowns there. And yep, they can be spun in any direction they want the narrative to go.

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