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DiamondIceNS t1_j6oy6v3 wrote

Reply to comment by Stellar_Panda in ELI5 - When filling multiple choice bubbles at random why only go with 1 letter? by Stellar_Panda

Let me ask a counter question:

You are playing a game where someone rolls a 6-sided die over and over, and each time you have to guess which number it lands on before it is rolled. If you guess correctly, you win.

You happen to know that the die is loaded. It's not a 1/6 chance for each number to show up. The side numbered "4" is slightly more likely to occur than all of the others.

Knowing that, why would you ever guess anything other than "4"? You're not going to win every time, but it's always your best shot.

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Stellar_Panda OP t1_j6pe0pe wrote

Okay, why is selecting a straight line of 'C's better than filling in with no rhyme or reason (like the test probably would have looked like if you actually took it?) I think this is what my question boils down to.

If everything is 1/4 why would always choosing the same answer increase your chances? (Ignoring the whole 'C' is actually a better guess findings.) It doesn't right?-

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DiamondIceNS t1_j6pf6rj wrote

If the test is written by a person, C is most likely. Because the answers are (probably) not 1/4 each.

If the test was shuffled by a machine, and the answers are perfect 1/4 chance, then no strategy is better than any other. Picking straight C is just as effective as picking C most of the time and picking B sometimes, and just as effective as picking with no pattern at all.

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Stellar_Panda OP t1_j6pfl2l wrote

If machine wouldn't having a pattern hurt you? If random, try to be random. Would this not offer some kind of marginal benefit? Because very low probability of answer always being C, etc? I guess not..?

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