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m4vie_ t1_j55uyoq wrote

Interesting data. How accurate have prediction markets been historically?

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Bucksandreds t1_j55w6la wrote

They claim to be +/- .13% on a monthly basis (not YoY so each months inflation.) when months are averaging around 1% inflation that’s pretty good. On months averaging .2-.3% inflation, that’s not good estimation.

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Supercst t1_j565l5n wrote

Curious what the fed will do come Feb 1. I feel like they might announce a short pause to rate hikes to assess. I am worried about the monetary policy lag

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dynosaur7 t1_j56jx5w wrote

The same prediction market has a Fed forecast here: kalshi.com/forecasts/fed

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TerranPhil t1_j55uxtq wrote

Went shopping at Costco last night. Holy fuck, it's like everything jumped 50%+ since my last visit.

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imakenosensetopeople t1_j566mk0 wrote

Your experience differs from mine. Out of a dozen items in my latest trip (all consumables/perishables), one of them jumped by about 50% (eggs), the rest jumped by a buck or so, one item actually went down (dish detergent).

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Gabagool1987 t1_j56eiyx wrote

What a shame voters don't seem to care. Fucking abortions was the biggest issue in the midterms.

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bp92009 t1_j56s2ho wrote

Agreed, given that if you care solely about the performance of the economy, you vote for the Democratic party. There are far too many people who have regressive opinions about abortion and vote against their economic best interests and voted for Republicans.

Source for the evidence that Democrats give a better return on investment in the stock market than Republicans, going back to 1946.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-democratic-republican-presidents-better-performance-economy-gdp-2020-8-1029528932?op=1

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Gabagool1987 t1_j56u0v9 wrote

Because the economy’s been so great under Biden lmao

>voting against their interests

“Why won’t the peasants do what I want”

Go give Biden a big thumbs up next time you can manage to find some eggs or baby formula to buy

−33

bp92009 t1_j56x32a wrote

Perhaps you can point to any economic policies that the Republican party actively advocates for and are opposed by the Democratic party, that are proven to reduce the cost of eggs and baby formula, as demonstrated to actually work in another developed economy?

For the answer to be taken seriously, please provide a policy that Republicans advocate for, where it has been implemented elsewhere that actually resulted in a drop in prices for those (or similar) items, and how Democrats are opposing it.

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9_Cans_Of_Ravioli t1_j56xyak wrote

So, Biden is responsible for avian flu and the cooperate monopoly on baby formula? Is that correct? Try again.

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Me_Melissa t1_j56ve89 wrote

Do you have any data more substantive than "here's a couple products that had supply-driven price spikes in recent memory"?

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Atom-the-conqueror t1_j57ufow wrote

You’re in the wrong sub, data or bounce. Emotional opinions and personal experience have zero value.

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Goojus t1_j5eyf71 wrote

You’re right, there’s no saving this earth. But being on reddit posting about it isnt helping. U should take out these commie republicans to actually put some change in place. They aren’t doing anything that you would want

1

Atom-the-conqueror t1_j57u9h3 wrote

Who is to blame for inflation? It was started under Bush, then Obama, then Trump and we see it under Biden. 0-2% interest rates will almost always be inflationary

0

kzlife76 t1_j58njc7 wrote

That's the way government wants it. That way them and their corporate cronies can steal more money from the American people in peace.

0