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chouseva t1_iyx2a5s wrote

Per capita isn't the right approach. Little kids aren't in the market for a new home. Either use households or the adult population.

The quote in the subtitle is misleading, as it implies that NIMByism is why the number of permits are what they are. Based on the HOUST data in FRED, the growth in housing starts post-2008 crisis has been strong.

Growth rates would have made more sense.

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stevez28 t1_iyxcipd wrote

The number of kids per family doesn't vary that widely. It's the same in most states (~1.9), except it's just a touch higher in the Mormon corridor and slightly lower in the northeast.

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hiricinee t1_iyxhuwn wrote

Notable too that in those places the data seems to skew the opposite way, as in while the number of people per household goes up, the per capita new constructions also goes up, instead of being depressed by the bigger relative denominator.

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RedditUser91805 t1_iyxy7y4 wrote

Per Capita isn't the right approach, but per household is also the wrong approach. Household size is effected by, well, the number of housing units. A state that has historically suppressed the number of housing units will have higher housing production per household than a state with equivalent population and housing production that historically hasn't suppressed housing units.

Adult population is a better approach

Personally, I'd measure change in housing stock relative relative to change in adult population (completions - demotions) / change in population 18+

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Bewaretheicespiders t1_iyy6s2z wrote

There isnt a hugely significant statistical deviation of household size per state. Utah and District of Columbia are outliers, but all other states are fairly close to the 2.54 person per household average for the country.

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jigga19 t1_iyz0oli wrote

I’m curious relative to available housing. If houses are available, building more houses seems a waste. Also, what about teardowns? Ive lived in several areas where it was common to buy a house for the land, raze the existing house - which is surprisingly cheap! - and build a new, updated house. Where does this fit in?

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