Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

schrodingers_pp t1_iyownpb wrote

Oxford predicted Belgium will go to the final and lose to Brazil, they are out in first round.

These simulations are cool and all, but basing your simulation on ranking only doesn’t generate accurate predictions. You need to consider players recent form, team chemistry, injuries etc.

6

Newmanuel t1_iypyyfx wrote

there's a pretty accurate simulation site they use for Starcraft called aligulac that I found predicts tournaments better than humans all the time. The thing is, these are individual players with many games being played against each other. Most of the players in the world cup spend most of their games in different teams, so the dataset of games in their WC arrangement is too small to make accurate predictions from.

4