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2XX2010 t1_is8b855 wrote

Look at the Obama years shining.

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ZetaZeta t1_ishkc4o wrote

Downward acceleration during last few Bush years, bottoming out and positive acceleration during Obama years. Nice try though.

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batatatchugen t1_is8eeb1 wrote

Is that spike around September? More specific on the 11th?

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mc0t t1_is90pys wrote

that would be my guess as well.

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Silly_Bookkeeper t1_ise2zvq wrote

No it says they excluded sep 2001, it’s something else

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Fickle_Catch8968 t1_ise3j1p wrote

The spike is 9/11.

9/11 was excluded for determining the mean and standard deviation, as it is an obvious outlierwhicj would distort those measures.

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MrEZW t1_is8euaa wrote

2008-2016 shows a dip below the mean, those are also the years Obama was president.

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Sup3rmurs3 t1_isay6pw wrote

Biden came in 2020 though...

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Procrasturbating t1_isd3wcw wrote

Domestic abuse was through the roof during lockdown. People went legitimately crazy the world over. Isolation, paranoia, job losses.. hard to put that on Biden. The next year or two will be more accurate in reflecting policy changes.

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Sup3rmurs3 t1_ise3j54 wrote

That was a concern among Republicans from the start. The solution shouldn't be worse than the problem.

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Procrasturbating t1_isfkg3b wrote

If the numbers are to be believed many more lives were saved by those actions. Even more could have been if we had acted sooner. They preferred mass death of the elderly and middle-aged over personal sacrifice IMHO. I think that makes them weak willed and weak minded. Those are the ones that knew what was up. I can forgive the ones that were manipulated into believing that there was nothing we could do or that it was overblown. They don't question what they are told by their guys and are generally kinda just trying to live life.

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Himbo69r t1_isgz1ao wrote

The companies lobbied to delay because more time working and out and about nets them more money

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Procrasturbating t1_ishba3f wrote

Yeah, they are among the ones that chose profit over people. Government is supposed to regulate business for a reason and not the other way around. PURE capitalism without healthy government regulation is evil. Regulatory capture is basically the same thing with extra steps.

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Kayaker2005 t1_is8lurz wrote

Obama was President from 2009-2017.

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MrEZW t1_is8u1tc wrote

His presidency pretty much ended OCT 2016. Thats when turnover starts with the next president.

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Kayaker2005 t1_is8w7x4 wrote

The election is in November, how could the turnover happen before that?

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MrEZW t1_is8wtg6 wrote

November whatever, turnover doesn't happen in a day it takes months.

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Aeroswoot t1_isc6qz6 wrote

He begins to have less power in making long-term plans, as the administration gets their affairs in order for the new president to come in efficiently.

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Bubba479 t1_is8rxk8 wrote

Uh, atrial flutter with one R wave? Am i right?

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WellWornLife t1_is8bqg3 wrote

Why is murder so seasonal?

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agate_ t1_is8cxta wrote

Several reasons have been proposed: people are outdoors more in the summer, interacting socially rather than watching TV. School's out, so more teenagers with not much to do but hang out and get into fights.

Interestingly the seasonal trend is just as strong in warm states as cold states suggesting that it's more about school than temperature.

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WellWornLife t1_is8dw7o wrote

Extra hours of sunlight make us want to permanently close other peoples eyes?

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What_Is_The_Meaning t1_is8fffv wrote

It’s why they put air conditioning in prisons. Heat makes people snap.

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Macrophage87 t1_isadkd9 wrote

Not in the south. Most prisons in the south don't have air conditionings. That makes working in the prison pig farm a choice position as those places have air conditioning, because it would be inhumane not to.

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KerPop42 t1_is8c1a6 wrote

^ has a good family to go to for the holidays /j

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aidansean OP t1_is84qjd wrote

This post is a variation of the post that u/academiaadvice made, with some tweaks.

I added the "baseline" rate. This is the mean +/- one standard deviation in the period January 1999 to April 2020. This excludes September 2001, which is considered an outlier. The choice to exclude the period after April 2020 is based on the comments left on the other post.

The values also take the population of the USA and days per month into account. The y-axis is given in units per day per 100,000,000 people. As a rough guide, you can multiply the values by about 100 to get the number of homicide deaths for a given month. (For example, in September 2001, there were approximately 5,000 homicides.)

Sources: Homicide: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D309F401 Population: https://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table/by-month

Tools: Python (pandas+matplotlib)

Thanks to u/academiaadvice for the inspiration and data source!

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SirJelly t1_is8hry2 wrote

Its worth noting this data starts right at the start of a relatively stable crime period. It hasn't always been this way. one article with a graph.

There are a few points of interest recently.

  1. The 9-11 spike was a few thousand murders on the same day. easy explanation.
  2. the dip in the 2008-2015 years.
  3. the spike in the COVID era.

Studying violent crime in a global context reveals nearly all aspects of societal health matter in determining crime rates averaged over large areas. Governance, education access, inequality, economic conditions, cultural inertia, all of it matters. The emerging strategies for combating crime however are hyper localized, individual streets and blocks which have a particularly poor mix of attributes. brookings has decent work on this subject, the linked article starts off by dismissing several of the bad-faith arguments that popped up quickly in the other thread.

While national murder rates remain stable, those murders shifted dramatically from some cities to others, so explaining why the national rate went up or down is really an exercise in summing up studies in many of the largest cities.

It is not particularly surprising through this lens why crime rates spiked during COVID. Small businesses nestled throughout distressed communities went under during the shutdowns. Once lively blocks, storefronts, even single street corners turned from happy places to desolate in an instant. Social connections, a critical violence mitigator, was effectively forbidden.

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FailOsprey t1_isash70 wrote

>It is not particularly surprising through this lens why crime rates spiked during COVID. Small businesses nestled throughout distressed communities went under during the shutdowns. Once lively blocks, storefronts, even single street corners turned from happy places to desolate in an instant. Social connections, a critical violence mitigator, was effectively forbidden.

...I feel as though the increase in murders during covid is better explained by all the people out of work and school and the fact that a ton of stimulus money was flowing through the drug trade (every drug addict got access to a few thousand dollars that immediately went to drugs). Alot of social avenues we're shut down, but people were still socializing; bars stayed open where I'm at, and people spent alot of time getting drunk with each other at home.

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BSP9000 t1_isc72m0 wrote

Covid had little to do with it. The 2020 crime spike didn't happen in any country besides the US, despite covid being everywhere.

It was a result of the George Floyd protests and the subsequent changes to policing:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike

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FailOsprey t1_isf30l4 wrote

...one can argue that the George Floyd protests were the result of people not working, which was made possible through a combination of unemployment, government stimulus, and shutdown of schools and workplaces.

It seems that the protests are correlated with the increase in the homicide rate, but not it's cause.

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sukkibds t1_isliiq2 wrote

> It seems that the protests are correlated with the increase in the homicide rate, but not it's cause.

No the protests themselves aren't the cause. The argument is that the subsequent pulling back/ lack of policing following the protests is the proximate cause. Of course, all those things you mentioned were big factors in causing the intensity and scale of the protests so it's really a question of where you draw the line.

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BSP9000 t1_isq2drs wrote

Except that the pandemic was worldwide. Pretty much every country saw unemployment and school shutdowns. Most of the developed world had government stimulus.

Only the United States saw a 30% increase in murder. And that was mostly in black communities in the US.

So it was an effect of depolicing black communities, not an effect of unemployment.

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coldgator t1_is89w0e wrote

Am I stupid for not understanding the 2021ish spike?

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aidansean OP t1_is8ae8l wrote

I don't think anyone fully understands it. Comments on the other post suggested effects of the pandemic and George Floyd protests. It will be interesting to see what data the CDC publish in the future to see if it returns to the previous values.

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stlcowboy8888 t1_is8i1rd wrote

A lot of people understand it. There were criminals not being put in jail/ being released during this time because of the covid outbreak., that were in due to overcrowding. I'm sure that had somthing to due to it.. and overall stressful cirmsanstaces for everyone else no

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BSP9000 t1_isc7ayk wrote

If you zoom in more closely, it started right after Memorial Day, 2020.

Here's an article explaining it:

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike

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coldgator t1_isczqry wrote

I'm not sure about the logic of this article, but some of the information is helpful.

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BSP9000 t1_isq2nez wrote

Oh, it's highly logical. The conclusion is just an uncomfortable reality that few people want to talk about. So, papers like the NYT or WaPo give vague statements blaming guns or domestic violence or whatever.

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WhileNotLurking t1_is8yr82 wrote

Have you ever been stuck hold up with people you hate in close quarters.

Yeah. Some of the people murdered their housemates / families.

Another group went back out into the world as things reopened… and killed other people because they had so much built up anger. They also lost all social norms in isolation. Which likely lead to more things that would have ended up as a “fuck you buddie” and instead ended in homicide.

If you have been out in places or driving post COVID you can see how aggressive a subset of people have become.

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Simple-Inevitable123 t1_is856bp wrote

Why was homicide that high in 2001? Like....people went that crazy after 9/11 or what?

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857477459 t1_is85enu wrote

No, that IS 9/11.

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Critical_Session482 t1_is90w6k wrote

Do these figures count suicides as homicides?

These numbers do not correspond with the numbers you get from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports for murder and non-negligent homicides.

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DamnImBeautiful t1_is852ht wrote

uhhh, Im pretty sure mean +- std should not be constant

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aidansean OP t1_is85bzb wrote

It's not a moving average, just the mean and standard deviation of the values.

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