Source data: the NHL's public statistics, laundered through my simulations for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.

Generated using svgwrite

Aren't the chances of getting into the playoffs something like 75%, Like 3/4th of the teams are in the playoffs. Like the games of the regular season hardly mean squat.

Half. 32 teams, two conferences, two x two = four divisions.
Top three teams from each division go, next best two per conference (wild cards) go.
The #1 in conference faces wild card #2, #1 in division that isn’t #1 in conference faces wild card #1, division #2 faces same division #3.
Games are best of seven, higher seed gets home ice in games 1, 2, 5, and 7.
Regular season does mean a lot.

Hey man can you do one of these for the rugby World Cup this year? The visualization is great.

This visualization is very satisfying. Well done!

Maybe, actually - does anybody publish head-to-head probabilities for games? Making a model for a sport I don't know anything about is obviously past me but the viz can be adapted, maybe.

If OP won't plug his Twitter, then I will.

Must follow for hockey stats fans: https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath

So is Toronto more likely to earn the second seed but regardless of their seed, TB is favored to win the series?

20 years ago it used to be that way, now it's 50%. 16 out of 32 teams make it.

For those who know hockey, the only thing that Toronto is favored for, is losing in the first round.

Toronto slowly fading until almost nothing lmao

Death, taxes, and the Leafs choking in the playoffs.

Grew up in Buffalo but stopped following when I moved away (also as the Sabres got worse and worse). But the leafs losing in the playoffs is a tale as old as I can remember

Unique chart! Great work! Really interesting layout

Yes that's right.

Thanks! I already had a version of this that looked like a regular bracket but then I saw this blog post: https://richardbrath.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/arcs-vs-beziers-sankey-vs-tubemap/

I've been yelled at before =D

could you share what the regular bracket looked like? I'm trying to create a viz to capture playoff leverage (how much does winning / losing the next game affect playoff chances)

Not that I’m aware of. There are rankings though.

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What is this type of chart called? I’ve seen many different visuals for data that I’ve never seen before in this subreddit. Leafs fan too by the way…the struggle is real.

I do love watching hockey live but don’t follow. But THIS VISUAL. I’m wanting to get into data visualization, how did you make this one?

It's displayed as 100% only because the true probability is closer to 100% than it is to 99%, and I didn't want to quote a finer precision. If they were guaranteed of the spot I would have removed the number completely.

I think you would just call this a sankey

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https://imgur.com/a/5DW0eTr

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There's the old bracket version, and my playoff implications viz.

https://imgur.com/a/5DW0eTr

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I'd already made the bracket viz here but then I saw this blog post about sankeys with circle segments: https://richardbrath.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/arcs-vs-beziers-sankey-vs-tubemap/

so I just used svgwrite to put down the circle segments in the right places. It's all svg rectangles and path elements.

Again, it’s incredible. Thanks so much for the info.

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Ah I knew it was familiar! I actually wrote about your bracket design for Nightingale a year ago!

https://nightingaledvs.com/bracket-carousel-discovering-the-next-generation-of-bracket-design/

Oh wow that's so cool! Nice article.

I don’t think the Staals are a fan.