It is a lot, yes. But they still have a bit of a point. In absolute terms lung cancer isn't hugely common in smokers. About 1 in 10. So you're still somewhat unlikely to get lung cancer as a smoker. Although you're massively more likely to get it compared with someone who has never smoked. So it's a huge relative risk but a somewhat low absolute risk. As an individual even if you smoke the odds are still in your favour wrt lung cancer. Of course, with smoking there is a bunch of other things that can kill you before you get the chance to win the prize of lung cancer. So that has to be considered too.