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sazerrrac t1_j8o7uah wrote

While good news, some caution: bit of a sensationalist title - EV car sales hit $1tn cumulatively over the last ten years. That represents less than half of a single year of all auto sales.

Adoption rates are growing, and legislation on new sales needing to be zero emission is helping, but it probably won’t be until the back end of this decade that we’ll begin to see the tipping point in favour of EV - and even then it’ll only be in some vehicle segments and in some countries.

Source: Am product strategist with global carmaker.

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SilverNicktail t1_j8og3by wrote

When you say "tipping point", do you mean majority share, or the tipping point for mass adoption? I've read several articles stating that we're beyond the point in the S-curve where mass adoption becomes rapid and inevitable.

I would hope that as more and more territories ban ICE car sales from 2035 or even 2030, and interim sales quotas are mandated, that no manufacturer is stupid enough to sit back on this one.

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sazerrrac t1_j8oqbmp wrote

Mass adoption is definitely inevitable, and the growth rates of the EV market are huge, but buying an electric vehicle today is still not a straightforward decision - especially in single car households. The range and charging infrastructure doesn’t yet provide a credible alternative to that of internal combustion engines.

It’ll come though. As ranges and charging speeds improve, it’ll become as easy (if not easier) to charge your car than fill the fuel tank.

There are also challenges with costs. Batteries represent a huge proportion of the cost of the vehicles and don’t come cheap. So there’s also a bit of a chicken and egg situation when it comes to volumes and economies of scale. At the moment an EV often represents a more expensive initial outlay versus a traditional power train.

I’m sad. I could witter on about this stuff all day…

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SilverNicktail t1_j8tfjgk wrote

> Mass adoption is definitely inevitable, and the growth rates of the EV market are huge, but buying an electric vehicle today is still not a straightforward decision - especially in single car households.

Sure, but the article is partly about that right?

> The range and charging infrastructure doesn’t yet provide a credible alternative to that of internal combustion engines.

Can't agree with all of this. I can buy a mainstream EV today with the same range as my ICE car, and the cities/highways around here have plenty of charging infrastructure. I would agree that it's something of a postcode lottery, and rural areas are naturally far less well served, but people in rural areas are also going to be set up far better for home charging.

> As ranges and charging speeds improve, it’ll become as easy (if not easier) to charge your car than fill the fuel tank.

I often say that it needs a change in thinking. I don't think the "gas station" setup is going to survive as it currently does. You'll charge your EV when doing something else - park and plug. A lot of have previously focused on charging times for EVs, but if you're spending a few hours watching a movie while it charges it suddenly matters a whole lot less. Of course, for long-distance it still matters a lot but the percentage of daily journeys that are beyond the range of an EV battery is tiny.

> At the moment an EV often represents a more expensive initial outlay versus a traditional power train.

Very true, but again that's kinda the point of the article ;-)

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reidlos1624 t1_j8qf0pf wrote

Banning ICE use in city centers makes sense but the infrastructure can't support EVs outside of those ranges, comfortably, yet. Mass adoption to the point that the majority of vehicles sold (80-90%) would be enough that other areas of climate change would easily become a priority.

Even now, what is, 100 companies(?) produce 70% of the world's emissions? There's so much more that's needed than simply blanket bans on cars. If we can get emissions down from other areas we'd see significant improvements such that the small number of ICE (Hybrid) vehicles sold for rural transportation or as rentals for road trips wouldn't be a concern.

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Winjin t1_j8st56a wrote

Also, far North. In Siberia the EVs are basically useless. No one has heated garages, and temperature can hit -30 for weeks, and go down to like -50s Celsius. Hybrids could be possible, but it's hard to outdo gas in this setup. Especially since it's also providing lots of heat

So, while close to the equator you can easily switch to EV for city use at least, in the north it's not always going to work. And I think it's also not that great when you live in a flat without easy access to a charger.

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SilverNicktail t1_j8tfz4r wrote

> Even now, what is, 100 companies(?) produce 70% of the world's emissions?

This stat gets quoted a lot but it misrepresents the issue somewhat. The largest emission producing companies are - surprise surprise - fossil fuel producers, and IIRC the methodology included the transportation and consumption of that fuel. If we want to reduce their emissions, we have to have replacements for their demand.

Yes, legislate the shit out of them, but 20-25% of all worldwide emissions are from the transportation sector (including within those businesses). We need to replace that, as we are also doing in electricity generation.

Honestly I wish there was more focus on agriculture. It's by many metrics the most destructive sector - in terms of emissions, land usage, water usage, biodiversity loss, topsoil loss, etc.

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reidlos1624 t1_j8ti0vp wrote

I'm not disagreeing with you at all, I think it needs to be reduced, but of that 27% (per US gov stats on CO2 for transportation) only 41% is passenger cars. So really, passenger vehicles are only 11% of CO2 emissions. It's not nothing but it's also not the largest contributor.

Point being it can be nonzero and still be effective. We don't need to ban all ICE options, we just need most people to move to alternatives so that the few people who have legitimate need for ICE can still use it.

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SilverNicktail t1_j8u8x5b wrote

The ICE bans in place are for 2035, and even then only for new sales. I think we've got plenty of time to figure out alternatives for the edge cases where ICE stuff is still used.

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reidlos1624 t1_j8qefrb wrote

Also, I don't think it's much of a wake up call. Many major auto makers have already announced discontinuation of ICE development and plans to convert to EV in the next decade or less.

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808scripture t1_j8urmja wrote

Not to mention the lack of EV production in the US. The new EV tax credit prevents foreign OEMs from benefitting through new EV imports, so the bulk flow of economical EVs has stalled. The only company this has seriously benefited so far is Tesla, who have the largest margins of any OEM by far.

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Aleyla t1_j8o39j0 wrote

I know they are pushing back because electric is incredibly disruptive to that industry. My hope is that the newer electric car makers just crush the old guard.

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icefire555 t1_j8o5vkk wrote

One can only hope. But it seems right now they can't even keep cars in stock.

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wishyouwouldread t1_j8oyrz2 wrote

If there were more companies that made drop in kits for ICE cars an entire cottage industry could pop-up of converting Corollas and Civics to electric.

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Marmstr17 t1_j8ph2og wrote

Let's get some Rivian vehicles in on this. Sheesh that stock is so shit right now

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LargeP t1_j8pisrw wrote

I love when ev stocks go on sale. Just put a bunch into rivian and added it to my monthly buy list.

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KingBooRadley t1_j8qbx6x wrote

I don't see Rivian selling consumer vehicles after 2024.

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Tech_Philosophy t1_j8s5enp wrote

In that case you are predicting a huge jump in the stock when Amazon buys them to make desperately needed EV delivery vans. Or is that not how it works?

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KingBooRadley t1_j8t47e7 wrote

That is certainly one possibility, although delivery vans are not consumer vehicles. I don’t think Amazon has any interest in becoming a car company.

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SilverNicktail t1_j8oi2fn wrote

But the naysayers on here have been swearing to me for years now that EVs are exclusive playthings for only the richest people. Weird how they keep increasing 50% every year.

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1701-Z t1_j8oz65a wrote

I would argue some of them are. In my mind, Tesla is the electric equivalent of a Lincoln. Technically gets the job done, but also mostly a flashy status symbol. As electric (and even just hybrid) moves into more common and accessible brands like Subaru, Toyota, and Honda I think we'll see that mind set continue shifting.

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mtntrail t1_j8qi017 wrote

We just bought a Kia Niro, plug in hybrid. I had researched them online and knew exactly which one we wanted. So down to the dealership to test drive one. Ha, they got 6 Niros in stock from the week before, they had sold 5 already, the only one left was the very model we wanted. We drove it home, there is at least a six month wait for these cars, selling them as fast as they are available. $42K out the door with tax, and all the extended warranties. getting over 50 mpg on reg gas with a 42 mile electric range which is plenty for our daily driving.

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needspantsu t1_j8phard wrote

Most tech starts that way. HD widescreen TVs for instance.

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lvl1developer t1_j8qhtyq wrote

Question.

Will supply keep up with demand? or will there eventually be a supply shortages on raw materials for EV car? Ie: lithium, cobalt, nickel

Also please consider, when answering, that EV cars that are already sold will eventually need to get their batteries replaced. I understand that recycling will help contribute. But demand seems pretty high

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EIEIO_OU812 t1_j8qt0mw wrote

Yes, lithium supply is a definite issue. Not only that, many of the metals don't significantly occur in the US.

Not only that, rising electricity prices in some parts of the US Northeast have currently made EVs more costly per mile to operate than ICEs. As solar and wind proliferate, this will drive electricity costs even higher.

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lvl1developer t1_j8ubnhv wrote

So we basically need good relations with South Africa and Taiwan to supply us for EV cars… because those two areas control a large portion of said resources

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EIEIO_OU812 t1_j93nutj wrote

Moreso Congo (cobalt) and China (rare earth metals).

US has them too, but ironically the greens in favor of EVs won't allow expanded mining necessary.

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lvl1developer t1_j8uc2iu wrote

Bloomberg said more than half of produced cars will be EV by 2030. Does that seem realistic?

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EIEIO_OU812 t1_j93okj2 wrote

In the US that's laughable. In more densely populated, smaller and totalitarian countries it might be possible.

But with soaring electricity costs due to green conversion, it won't be cheaper. Problem is solar delivers only 25% of installed capacity and wind only 35%.

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bigchipero t1_j8v2g6q wrote

All ready buying a EV is not worth it as it is more expensive then gas since electricity and supercharger fees increased!!!

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LoveThieves t1_j8qjosv wrote

Wonder if the oil companies and its supporters think electric cars are a "fad" like they assumed that in the 1990s about the internet.

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galgor_ t1_j8r0qjs wrote

I mean probably not. When you have countries banning the sales of petrol/diesel/gas cars from a few years time, there's no alternative. Unless hydrogen becomes more viable but still, that's a green product.

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Wayed96 t1_j8tyh1v wrote

Why is this uplifting

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