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Loveroffinerthings t1_je2lto2 wrote

Interest rate are insane and I don’t want to pay inflated prices plus 6% interest rate.

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fishythepete t1_je2qdxw wrote

Hey maybe buying at the absolute top of the market is their way of setting the high score!

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UltravioletClearance t1_je3heoz wrote

Top of the market? Oh you sweet summer child...

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fishythepete t1_je3iib2 wrote

Please tell me more about how rising interest rates and a looming recession is going to drive sales prices further upwards, oh wise one. My only frame of reference is the housing market following 2008 financial crisis, and the accidental rental properties I picked up back then. Clearly since you’re calling me a “sweet summer child” you have some vast and valuable experience you’d like to share?

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BingBong022 t1_je3s6vy wrote

Simple supply versus demand

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fishythepete t1_je3u1b9 wrote

So sales are down 20% from this time last year, so mark that down on the demand side.

Consider that the jump in interest rates over the last 9 months means that your mortgage and interest expense (ie the bulk of your mortgage payment) has almost doubled for homes priced the same. I.e. buying a $400,000 home today costs you about 80% more than it did a year ago. And home prices haven’t stayed flat either. The cost to own a given home is > 2.5-3X today what it was 3 years ago. But hey maybe demand is unlimited no matter the cost.

Simple though right 🙄

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AttackonRetail t1_je4j8s8 wrote

But how does inventory look?

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fishythepete t1_je4piln wrote

Based on slowing sales, it looks better than it did this time last year relative to demand.

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BingBong022 t1_je5svtf wrote

False inventory is down because nobody is selling lol, the prices of all my properties have increased from last year

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fishythepete t1_je61rtp wrote

>False inventory is down because nobody is selling

it looks better than it did this time last year relative to demand.

Bolded it for you to help you figure out what you missed. Inventory changes don’t happen in a vacuum. They happen against a backdrop of changes like rising interest rates and economic concerns.

>the prices of all my properties have increased from last year

Congrats, you had the good luck to live close to a few major markets and not bumfuck Indiana. The median existing-home sales price was down 0.2% to $363,000 in February compared to a year ago. This is the first drop that has happened in 11 years. If you think it is an isolated event, you might want to chart some NAR data, because you clearly can’t see which way the wind is blowing.

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BingBong022 t1_je655xo wrote

Lol

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[deleted] t1_je65cys wrote

[removed]

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AttackonRetail t1_je6ephg wrote

Aren't we only talking about RI relevant data? Are you using national averages?

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fishythepete t1_je6wkum wrote

Are you under the impression that RI is some unique real estate microcosm that would insulate it from the national average?

National average data is absolutely relevant to RI.

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UltravioletClearance t1_je550yc wrote

> rising interest rates

Doesn't matter. There are always buyers who aren't sensitive to interest rates - all-cash buyers, buyers with massive equity who can stomach a high interest rate on a small mortgage, and of course corporations and house flippers.

> looming recession

No one has ever successfully predicted a recession. Every historical recession came out of the blue with no warning. This is no different. The media and corporations are certainly trying to convince us we're in a recession, but we have the lowest unemployment rate in 20 years and a strong economy so no one's buying their FUD.

>drive sales prices further upwards

Three words - supply and demand. No supply, sky-high demand regardless of economic conditions or interest rates.

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3-Inch-Hog t1_je4jj22 wrote

If you can get a house at a good price point, you can always refinance when the rates go back down. I’ll take a cheap house with a higher rate over an expensive house with a lower rate. You can’t fix it after you’ve overpaid

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Loveroffinerthings t1_je4mb9b wrote

I haven’t seen any prices come down yet, maybe in 6 months or so, but ppl are still looking for high prices.

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pweedith t1_je57g4r wrote

Don't expect prices to really come down much if at all. Interest rates may be up but it comes down to supply and demand. Home construction has been outpaced by population growth for over a decade. This lack of supply is what will keep the housing prices stable right now. And waiting for interest rates to come down just means home prices will go up again. The best thing is to find a monthly payment you can afford and hope to refi in the next few years. Overtime the homes will be worth more, I bought in 2019 and thought prices were high then but it kept going up.

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SnooDrawings7662 t1_je5g4o6 wrote

Here in Barrington - Prices are coming down a little bit.. but it's still close to top of market - maybe only a couple percent..Zillow claims my house has dropped 10 % from peak in june 2022, and down about 2 % in last 30 days.. if you believe zillow..The biggest difference is that houses are staying on the market longer - e.g. 10 days instead of 1 day..I believe that there will be at least two houses in my neighborhood this spring.. it'll be interesting to see what they go for.

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pweedith t1_je5gnzw wrote

Zillow is hit or miss. They just use algorithms that don't always factor things in properly and can sometimes use outdated information, especially in a changing market. Also, with spring starting up I feel that those days on market are going to shorten again...as long as the house is priced properly. The ones that sit the longest tend to be priced too high, a properly priced home will sell quick because there is no shortage of buyers looking.

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SnooDrawings7662 t1_je5jfeq wrote

Oh, Agreed - Zillow's data and numbers are guesstimates at best. I don't think Zillow is accurate in specific cases, but I think it is a useful comparison tool to look at overall trends.

Even with that - just looking around town, around my neighborhood, and talking with people - in the past two or three years, I haven't heard of a single house going for under asking price. It's all at asking price, or over. Usually, if the house stays on the market longer, it's at asking price, at least that's what I have seen with my admittedly incomplete information. To be fair, the number of houses sold here is so low, that getting an average selling prices is ... usually an N=2.. so it doesn't mean much.
And lots of houses are never on the open market, they go pocket listings - so you don't really know until 30-60 days after the sale has closed.

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crownjd t1_je5loxm wrote

Also in Barrington. A house in my neighborhood has been on the market for over a month now. The house two houses down sold in 1 day, and around the corner, 1 day as well. All over-asking. Wild.

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man9875 t1_je4obfp wrote

1978 enters the chat ....insane? You ain't seen nothing yet

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MoreLab5278 t1_je54b9x wrote

6% in the history of mortgages, is pretty average. We've been living in a bubble where 0-3% was "the norm" however it was anything but.

Also.. the inflated prices, won't deflate. Infact I think they can go higher.

Less and less people are willing to sell their homes because they locked in such a low rate. As long as demand is where it is, and inventory keeps dropping.. guess where the home values go...

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