Guygan t1_j9lwcsa wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:31 PM

Reply to comment by [deleted] in CMP and Spectrum Outages by exploremore617

> You can unless you’re an idiot

Please enlighten us as to how non-idiots can accurately predict internet outages in and entire city of 20,000 residents.

[deleted] t1_j9lxvku wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:41 PM

You're in another comment telling this guy historical data is irrelevant - you should tell all the meteorologists who use historical data to try to predict that exact thing. You're being obtuse.

Guygan t1_j9ly4pu wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:43 PM

Historical data isn’t used for weather forecasts. Current data and computer models are.

[deleted] t1_j9lyerx wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:45 PM

It's used to predict power outages homie.

"When storm patterns look like this with a combination of wind, temperature and recent climate, we can expect 30k-50k outages" or whatever. Happens all the time.

NetLibrarian t1_j9lyxfp wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:48 PM

Yeah? Give us a link to one then.

[deleted] t1_j9mu5bm wrote on February 23, 2023 at 2:32 AM

Ok - here ya go

It's almost like even though it's hard to predict with 100% accuracy, we're still able to use what we know about past events to give us a more accurate idea of what might happen

"Obviously, 65 mph or even 70 mph is a big number, but it's important to keep in mind these are GUSTS not sustained winds. So, no, this is not "hurricane-force" wind. Category 1 Hurricanes have SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph. Big difference. (Sorry, pet peeve). In addition, we don't have any leaves on the trees and there is snowpack on the ground in a lot of places, which helps us when it comes to power outages.

That being said, I expect a lot of outages from this event. It's just too much wind and it's out of the southeast, which hasn't historically been a kind wind direction for Maine."

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/weather/weather-blog/maine-weather-friday-1-storm-4-issues-maine-christmas-forecast-rain-wind-snow/97-72813931-a106-4970-8dea-f04da3ee996e

NetLibrarian t1_j9mv67x wrote on February 23, 2023 at 2:39 AM

So after busting everyone's balls for being unspecific, you're hauling out "A lot of outages" as a sufficient answer?

I think you know just where you can cram it, buddy.

Guygan t1_j9lzanl wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:51 PM

Well then ask the people who make those predictions.

OP asked for first hand experience. I gave mine.