Order oil now or wait? What’s your plan?

Submitted by Moot_n_aboot t3_xunlin in Maine

Checked Heatable and Maineoil.com this morning since I’ve finally turned the heat on and it looks like Heatable is at $4.03 a gallon and I’m at the 1/4 tank remaining mark. Do you all think prices are still going to decline over the next few weeks or go up? Not sure if I should gamble and wait or take the price and order now.

EDIT Ended up going with a minimum order for 100 gallons at $4.03/Gal. Will check back next Monday and see if prices go up, stay stable or go down. Wish me luck lol

Thank you to everyone who answered and best of luck to you all who are in the same situation.

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TuRD_vegetables t1_iqwdczv wrote

Demand is going to go up quite a bit because everyone procrastinates until the last minute. Best to be ahead of it, and be prepared!

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwnoxk wrote

Minimum order put in for 100 Gallons. If it goes down in price next week I’ll order a tank fill but if it goes up, I’ll just wait for next month and take what I get. Thanks!

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BadDogEDN t1_iqwe85p wrote

I just filled up last week. I figured with the bs going on with someone sabotaging that pipeline in Germany might cause prices to spike (even though its natural gas and not oil)

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M0useWhisperer t1_iqwhmd3 wrote

That’s not a bad idea. I’m no expert, but I’d think that the whole energy industry is tightly interconnected. If there’s a shortage of gas, Europe might have to look for alternatives and oil could play a portion of the immediate solution should other fuels not be enough.

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pm_me_ur_cutie_booty t1_iqxs9ap wrote

It's not so much about actual supply and demand as it is energy companies jumping at any excuse to wring the last drop out of us

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WangnanJahad t1_iqwgpfk wrote

Buy now. You're at 1/4 tank and we had our first good frost this morning. People are going to start scheduling last minute fills in just a few short weeks. Get out ahead of them before demand jumps the price up.

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SamPhoto t1_iqyorwg wrote

It hurts less to fill a 1/4th full that at completely empty too.

You can never be 100% sure what oil futures are going to be. But I'm not willing to gamble and hold out til I'm running on fumes.

I mean - How much are you potentially saving? A hundred bucks? Possibly! Realistically? I don't know.

But I'm willing to fill the tank at a potential overspend, because it buys peace of mind.

I realize I'm in a somewhat privileged position to be able to do this. I'm not rich, and buying oil sucks. But running out in winter sucks more.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwix5g wrote

More or less what I was thinking. Put in a minimum order for 100gal and we will see if i timed it well or not next week lol

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habanerolime t1_iqwf9xo wrote

I was at 1/8 of a 250 gal tank and filled up this morning at $4.49/gal. Not ideal, but it sure beats the $6.09/gal I paid to scrape through the end of last winter.

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asperges_me_domine t1_iqyv5d5 wrote

The $900 I just paid to fill my tank to the brim this year hurt a smidgen less when I saw my receipt from March. Same amount of money, for half the oil.

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planningcalendar t1_iqwdxkq wrote

It's been 4.39 here for a few weeks. Lowest was 4.19. I bought at 4.39. prebuy deal was 4.84 with mandatory 69 cent insurance per gallon which I refused to do. I'd buy now.

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WangnanJahad t1_iqwgifc wrote

insurance for what? It's fucking heating oil. It's not going to blow a tire.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwhi2x wrote

Lots of big companies let you pay an absurd per gallon price that subsidizes a yearly cleaning and emergency “insurance” for after hours no heat calls. Dead River and RH Foster used to be big on this.

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planningcalendar t1_iqwt6g8 wrote

Insurance so that if the price goes down, you pay the lower price. So on order to "make" money at prebuy of 4.84 the price of oil would have to drop to 4.14. It used to be 25 cents a gallon and option. This year it was 69 and mandatory to prebuy

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ghstber t1_iqwgeys wrote

Not that this is a direct response to your question, but I'm moving away from heating oil and investing in some heat pumps. As it turns out, the ROI is very short. I contracted with a company in the middle of summer for an initial install mid-October, but supply chain issues related to a controller board/chip mean that these are a little backed up. Either way, good luck with heating oil prices over the winter (not sarcastic)!

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badhmorrigan t1_iqwl5kn wrote

Heat pumps are awesome. Mine is older, so when it gets below about 15, we need a space heater as a boost.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwh10d wrote

Not to ask a personal question, but would you feel comfortable saying what your price was for install? Did you use one of the subsidies/repayment plans the state offers? Ideally heat pump is where I’m looking to go but I don’t have the liquid cash on hand to pay for an install and that likely not change until next heating season.

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ghstber t1_iqwzhis wrote

I am totally comfortable with sharing information! Below you will find my heat pump package:

> HEAT PUMP PACKAGE: > This is the cost for (2) heat pump systems. The downstairs, main living area will get a single zone, 15,000 BTU Mitsubishi Hyperheat heat pump. The indoor unit is to be mounted at the inside corner of the elle, between the window and the corner the outdoor unit will be set somewhere in the inside corner of this elle, on the outside. The outdoor unit will be set on a pad and 18" stand with a matching rainshield. > A Mitsubishi, 20,000 BTU multi zone system is planned to be installed for the master bedroom and upstairs office area. The outdoor unit is planned to be set on a pad and stand, more or less directly below the master bedroom on the side of the home. Refrigerant lines for the office unit can be run through either the attic or basement. If they are run through the attic, they must hug the eve tightly, as the main area may one day be finished > This project qualifies for an anticipated Efficiency Maine rebate of $1000. This amount is not included the project cost. > *Expected Only. These are subject to availability and qualification and may change at any time. We will submit all paperwork required for the rebate(s) from Efficiency Maine and you will receive a check directly from Efficiency Maine in 4-6 weeks. > For the 20K BTU unit- I am planning on the Master bedroom getting a 9,000 BTU indoor unit, and the office receiving a 12,000 BTU indoor unit. the office unit will be mounted on the back wall > HEAT PUMP PACKAGE TOTAL: $15,790.00 (Package Is Included In Total)

I'll be using the $1k rebate, which might be the subsidy that you're referring to, but I happen to have this amount on hand so I am not taking any loans or other repayment options. That said, had I needed them, the company I contracted with could have extended some credit for a longer-term payment plan.

I wanted to provide a note on my ROI mention, since I'm sure there will be folks who say "$15k! There's no way that you're earning that back anytime soon!" In the summer when I spoke with Fabian Oil, my oil provider, about my budget plan, they indicated that my cost would be over $1k/mo for heating oil, when in the past it had been between $250-$450/mo. I will earn my 15k back in a few years, but it will be much sooner after I get a solar & battery setup in a year or two.

Feel free to ask any other questions!

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ReallyFineWhine t1_iqwmyfy wrote

Ordered mine late July; installation after Christmas. Heating oil until then.

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ghstber t1_iqx5n4s wrote

Out of the two I ordered, I have one going in after Christmas - we'll rely on a couple space heaters and a wood-burning stove til then. Stay comfortable!

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New_Sun6390 t1_iqwfltu wrote

You are at a quarter tank and you have to ask? Buy now. Depending on the dealer it could be WEEKS before they can actually make a delivery. Today's price may not be what you actually pay.

I am on auto delivery because my dealer only comes to my town every four to six weeks. So I take it when I can get it.

Trying to time oil delivery is like trying to time the stock market.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwg3fy wrote

I guess I’m lucky. Heatable has been next day delivery in the Bangor area any time I’ve ordered. 1/4 tank at my current usage is still 1.5 to 2 weeks of usage if I keep the house cool so I’m trying to be strategic about ordering. If prices might decrease in the next week I can hold off but if it’s going to go up I’d rather order now. Just trying to get a feel for what others are seeing since I know I’m further north than most of the folks in the subreddit.

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SodaFlavoredSweat t1_iqwm26b wrote

1/4 tank is 62 gallons on a 275 gallon tank (typically only filled to 250gal) this time of year I’m only I’m using 1 to 2 gallons per day. Means I have almost a month to make a decision.

Also buying a wifi tank level indicator that tracks usage and logs it in an iPhone app and sends me emails or text messages when it’s time to fill up, has been awesome, not having to continually go into he basement and guess how much I have left.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwmh91 wrote

I’ve seen adds for that tank gauge before and was very interested in it. Good results with it? Might need to plan to get one this winter.

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SodaFlavoredSweat t1_iqwn1zf wrote

Yeah. I don’t wanna get an auto-fill subscription plan because it usually costs extra money for no reason, and I don’t get to shop around.

But then you gotta always be checking your tank, and trusting the float gauge is accurate (it’s not. not even close), and so I’ve run out 3 times in the last 6 years, which is more annoying than anything cause I gotta make trips to the gas station for diesel, then bleed the lines out to get the furnace re-fired.

The sensor was like $180 on Amazon. No accounts or subscriptions required. Just connects to your home wifi and will send you an email or a text message at 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 whatever you set it to.

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Ok-Eggplant-1649 t1_iqwjczv wrote

I wouldn't depend on this. I used to be able to get it on demand too, but now a lot of places have scheduled delivery days for each area.

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NamkrowTheRed t1_iqwifc7 wrote

This is why I'm installing heat pumps. My home is small enough that it's more cost effective.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwiqvw wrote

I wish I could say the same. 1890’s home with horse hair plaster walls and not fantastic insulation. Heat pumps are my end goal, but financing the install isn’t feasible just yet. Hopefully next year!

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NamkrowTheRed t1_iqwjdn1 wrote

I get it, the rising oil costs made me start saving last year. Those rebates are the only way I'm gonna be able to install them.

I usually fill my tank 3 times during winter, with a 275 gallon tank and the way fuel is it'll cost me way too much.

Still gonna fill my tank once as a just in case back up.

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salvelinustrout t1_iqwy8mk wrote

Head to efficiencymaine.com and look at their rebates and financing for insulation and air sealing as well as a heat pump. If you’re not sure what the terms are give them a call, I’ve found their call center staff wicked friendly and knowledgeable. You’ll probably need to wait a while to get on a contractor’s list but especially if you’re income constrained they have a lot of assistance, both direct $$ and really low cost loans.

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New_Sun6390 t1_iqxu1en wrote

Efficiency Maine's call center staff was friendly and helpful? I had no idea they even had a call center staff. I have tried to reach them countless times over the years and not once could I get a human. Many people I talked to had a similar experience.

Glad to hear they have finally staffed up, as it was outrageous that my power bill was being used to find an agency that I could never reach.

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M0useWhisperer t1_iqwe0ho wrote

I was wondering the same. I’m leaning towards pulling the trigger after seeing news break today about a possible OPEC production cut. With my luck, it’ll probably jump the morning of delivery. Sigh..

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Ok-Eggplant-1649 t1_iqwjojp wrote

FYI for anyone who loses that game of chicken, off-road diesel at the pump can be used in place of heating oil. It's a bit more expensive to buy it that way, but you can stay warm until a delivery comes. I keep a couple empty 5-gal containers on hand just in case.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwkgxp wrote

Diesel fuel, off road (red) diesel, #2 heating oil and K1 kerosene can all be burned in your oil burner in a pinch. Somehow the local gas station has a #2 heating oil pump which was a first for me.

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Art_Dicko t1_iqwsao1 wrote

We just spent $969 for 236 gallons…

Edit: price per gallon was $4.09.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwuezq wrote

Ouch, that’s a big chunk of change but I hope it’ll last you a while.

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Corusmaximus t1_iqwo89f wrote

OPEC just threw a monkey wrench in the declining prices. I don't have a crystal ball but I expect everything to go up.

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DifferenceMore5431 t1_iqwjddw wrote

I don't see any point in trying to speculate about oil prices. You will never be as good as the pros who do that for a living and have already set their prices accordingly. You are at 1/4 tank... buy now.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwjy2r wrote

Been trying to digest as much of the info as I can from the commodities market. Diesel and heating oil are just insane in comparison to gasoline right now and as much as I didn’t want to spend 400$ I went with a minimum order for 100 gallons. We will see if it was a good idea come next week. If it goes down I’ll snag another 100gal and if it goes up…..🤷

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DifferenceMore5431 t1_iqwl5sr wrote

I think this is just a giant waste of time. Buy oil when you need it. 100 gallons at a time seems like such a hassle and waste of effort and there is absolutely no reason to think you will come out ahead.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwm37v wrote

100 gallon order would give me over 1/2 a tank which is 1 month + of run time if we stay at normal temps for October. I typically have to order at least 100 gallons a month between late December and March anyway so just trying my best to not sink $600+ into the tank if there’s even a remote possibility that it may go down.

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Twine52 t1_iqwp1mm wrote

There was a similar thread a bit back with this same sentiment. I understand it, though, since heating is one of the biggest expenses we have, it makes sense for people to try and get it as cheap as possible.

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sadbodrunner t1_iqwmkk7 wrote

Shhhh let them figure that out for themselves when they're hit with an emergency delivery fee.

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M0useWhisperer t1_iqwmei0 wrote

You’re not the only one to do this. I saved about $50 by splitting deliveries over separate orders. Yeah it may be a hassle and annoying to try to save beans comparison to the overall cost, but $50 here and there adds up.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwmyp7 wrote

That’s exactly where I’m at. I realize to many this might seem like a trivial question, but I’m not in a place where filling the tank for 600$ or more is feasible. If there’s a chance it’ll stay the same or go down it’s worth it. If it goes up, I’m gonna have to order more next month anyway.

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NotYou007 t1_iqwnmlw wrote

Heatable isn't in my neck of the woods yet, which sucks as I only do will call but I paid $4.599 a gallon on Sept. 8th thinking I was getting a decent deal. Thankfully I had heat pumps installed in mid 2020 but I can't run my heat pumps off my generator if I lose power and it is rare that I do lose power but it is always nice to have a backup just in case.

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Valek189 t1_iqwrwt7 wrote

OPEC is meeting today to determine whether they want to cut production by 1 million barrels per day to combat the “plummeting oil prices.” In summary, pre-buy if you can. It may go down next week, but it will go up for future weeks and months as we head into the winter and usage goes up and production is decreased.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwuch7 wrote

That’s the gable I’m taking. I did a 100 Gal order and if it goes down next Monday I’ll fill the tank and take what I can get. I assume it’ll go up but if there’s a chance to fill the tank for under 800$ I’m going to try it. Fingers crossed lol

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lantech t1_iqwtlsp wrote

Heatable delivered just now, 458 gallons @4.04

good to go for the winter now.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwv9jc wrote

Multi tank setup? That’s a hell of a stock pile of oil but glad you could get what you need for the season.

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Appropriate_Bike_941 t1_iqwumwy wrote

Valley Home Services said 3.88 a gallon about an hour ago

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwv3l7 wrote

I had used them previously but stopped because they were more than heatable. May need to order more later with them if the price difference is that big. Thanks!

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barryg123 t1_iqwoctv wrote

Oil price will be rising, esp with the destruction of NS1/2 a lot of industry & power generation in europe will be switching their gas setups to oil, putting upward pressure on global oil price. Also opec is expected to cut oil production soon, putting more upward pressure on oil prices. Better to buy now

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YuanHungLow t1_iqwp3qu wrote

get a pellet stove

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwq5cz wrote

I wanted one, but homeowners insurance was not a fan of the idea and wanted to increase my policy premium if I had any type of open flame heating device other than a gas fireplace.

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danheskett2022 t1_iqwq4c3 wrote

Ultimately smallish price swings (say 0.10/gallon) don't make the total ticket size that different. I know every dollar hurts/helps, but on a $400 order does $10 risk running out seem reasonable?

It's a touch situation.

Encourage everyone who struggles or might struggle to research LiHEAP.

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwxz0y wrote

I’m truly hopeful that the state government will loosen the guidelines and allow more people to apply for LiHEAP. I technically earn too much to take advantage but my expected heartng bill for the year is now tripple what it has been the last 5 years.

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Hype_x t1_iqwqif8 wrote

Not sure if this is the right forward commodity. You should prob do more digging that my simile google search. The link below will take you to NY Harbor Oil futures prices. Each month is on the table represents a contract for oil settling in that month. You could use this info to understand where the market makers think the price of oil is going. Remember any time you are asking will it be cheaper later you are taking a financial position on the outcome in the same way energy traders do every day. CME Futues

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqwusn7 wrote

Really appreciate the insight! I’ve been trying to better understand the commodities market for distillates and it’s been mind numbingly difficult for a novice.

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derpmcperpenstein t1_iqzqfcf wrote

I love gambling on Brent Crude and WTI futures! ( Can't imagine what Europe is going to do with natural gas)

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Sonofabeechikeelu t1_iqxnybb wrote

Europeans were warned weeks ago to brace for high heating costs. Do with that info what you will.

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jennifahsav t1_iqybek1 wrote

Oof. Filled the tank last week- 245(ish?) gallons. $1120. I gave them my first born instead. Fair market value.

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EastCoast_Tree_Skier t1_iqz1848 wrote

At the end of October the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will stop the current policy to sell oil to drive down energy prices. Don’t be surprised if this makes an impact and prices go up. Also, OPEC wants to cut production to increase prices. Read this. Bloomberg article about strategic petroleum reserve

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KD82499 t1_iqzy7p9 wrote

I have 100 gallons in my tank in the basement I’m trying to get rid of.

Anyone in the Belfast/Searsport Area that wants it for cheap, PM ME.

Only getting rid of it because we switched to Propane.

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david_lo-pan t1_irsufdd wrote

Should have ordered a full tank eh?

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_irsvzfr wrote

You saw the new thread eh? Lol. Yes, I wish I’d filled the tank but 100 gallons put me between 3/4 and full so I’ll take it for now.

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david_lo-pan t1_irtiybg wrote

Ah shit, I didn’t until I saw your comment. I happened to check the price of oil today and then I remembered this thread.

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Unklefat t1_iqx1u4m wrote

I’m not sure but I just moved to Maine and I am so lost with the process. I have a 1/4 of a tank what kind of bill am I looking at? I know maineoil.com seems to be the way to go. How many times do you have to fill a 275 gallon tank a winter?

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Moot_n_aboot OP t1_iqx56j2 wrote

Lots of factors to apply but it mostly depends on the size of your home, the efficiency of your boiler and whether or not you’re also heating your hot water with oil. For days that are bitterly cold, which would be 10F and under you can anticipate burning between 5 and 10 gallons A DAY. This time of year it is closer to 1/2 to 3 gallons. When I first bought my home I kept a spreadsheet of every oil purchase, how many gallons it was and the price per gallon. Really, the old saying is that during heating season “Order at a quarter” to allow for up to a week before delivery can be made. Ultimately it’s your choice who you buy from and unless you go with a large oil company who does payment plans, you pay the price the market sets or whatever discount you can find through smaller cash only oil companies.

If you want more info please feel free to ask, no better thread to ask questions in.

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Breakertorque207 t1_iqxzdxs wrote

Tanks full for now and just ordered two tons of wood pellets and I’ll get a third ton if I need it. I heat 4500 square feet all winter long at 80 with a pellet insert. Oil usually costs me 6k a year,now in the winter I spend maybe 1000 in oil and 1100 in pellets. Winter wise, oil just heats my hot water now. Best investment we ever made.

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snowswolfxiii t1_iqy2158 wrote

Biden administration has said that they have a hard floor of 80$ for selling oil. The closer we are to that, the less they'll be selling, which is a big factor in this dip.
Nfa, but I can totally see 100$ per barrel incoming this winter.

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CalebC6 t1_iqy9j0i wrote

Paid $4.31 this morning in greater Bangor area, not great but not terrible!

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metalandmeeples t1_iqyeub7 wrote

I topped off on Friday at 3.36/gal for propane. This is about 35 cents more a gallon than last season and about 95 cents more a gallon than two seasons ago.

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therealwolfe1982 t1_iqwsmxx wrote

Probably going to ruffle some feathers here but I’d be holding off until after the midterm election when the GOP wins the majority in both the House and Senate and prices go way down. I also expect my 401K to have a hell of an end of year rally. I mean fill it up now by all means you need what you need but expect prices to start going down.

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