Submitted by LanchestersLaw t3_1253kns in MachineLearning
lostmsu t1_je78jfg wrote
Reply to comment by WindForce02 in [D] Prediction time! Lets update those Bayesian priors! How long until human-level AGI? by LanchestersLaw
You are missing the idea entirely. I am sticking to the idea of the original Turing test to determine if AI is human-level already or not yet.
The original Turing test is dead simple and can be applied to ChatGPT easily.
The only other thing in my comment is that "human-level" is vague, as intelligence differs from human to human, which allows for goalpost moving like in your comment. IQ is the best measure of intelligence we have. So it is reasonable to turn the idea of Turing test into a plethora of different tests Turing(I)
which is like any regular Turing test, but the IQ of the humans participating in the tests (both machine's opponent, and the person who needs to guess which one is the machine) is <= I
.
My claim is that I believe ChatGPT or ChatGPT + some trivial form of memory enhancements (like feeding previous failures back into prompts) quite possibly can already pass Turing(70)
.
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