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perrochon t1_j0ie6zr wrote

Reply to comment by eman0075 in Here’s why Big Oil companies are investing billions in EV charging by Chris_ChargedEV

This is r/Futurology.

It's not about today, or even 2025.

We are at the beginning of an S-curve transition. It could take 10 years, or 20. But most here will be alive to see it.

Most capacity coming online in the US is renewable. Who would finance an expensive fossil fuel plant these days that will never make their investments back. They can't compete with sun or wind so they run only when it's dark and not windy.

It's already cheaper to build new renewable capacity than run existing fossil plants. Tesla Electric already flattens peak demand in Texas. More people will buy house batteries to avoid peak charges for gas plants, and many will actively arbitrage and/or sell their own solar at peak.

The rest of the world will follow, at different speeds. Those that still build fossil plants today will be slower, spend more money, and have more pollution.

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eman0075 t1_j0igdco wrote

20 years is still an optimistic expectation. Renewables only account for about 13% of energy demand in the US. The market is valued at around 900 billion dollars today and is expected to grow to around 2 trillion in 2030.so that's about double the current size. So that means by 2030 renewables will account for perhaps 30% of all energy demands. And thats assuming our energy needs don't keep increasing as they're likely to do. So we're nowhere near ending our dependency on fossil fuels.

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