Submitted by blaspheminCapn t3_zhtjnn in Futurology
danellender t1_izntijq wrote
This is really starting to feel like the end. The ceaseless articles on this and other subs are positive in tone yet herald new methods that are disturbing.
I remember Alvin Toffler's book, Future Shock, from 1970. It felt like this. In battling disease we're dealing with technology that is truly moving beyond our understanding. Scientists are struggling to keep up with the developments that are creating themselves.
sboy12456 t1_iznv0v2 wrote
Nah youre just paranoid
danellender t1_izofzyh wrote
Thanks I feel much better. I'm almost over Covid, out of quarantine tomorrow.
sboy12456 t1_izokpfv wrote
That’s good I hope you’re doing well now
321gogo t1_izocbrh wrote
Nothing is creating itself and the technology is not moving beyond the understanding of those creating it.
flux_capacitor73 t1_izppnpd wrote
To a degree these systems are block box, or at least relatively opaque. They can provide results which are difficult to understand. There's work being done to counter this, but there definitely are legitimate concerns.
321gogo t1_izqfe7j wrote
> they provide results that are difficult to understand
Care to elaborate on this? I’m no expert in AI/ML, but generally I wouldn’t say the results are difficult to understand. I think it’s pretty clear that computers can outperform humans by a wide margin in analyzing large sets of data. Most of these concepts are applications of this computing power.
flux_capacitor73 t1_izrh3el wrote
There's an example where an ad bot from target would predict the pregnancy of its customer by look at the purchase of certain items. Human advertisers weren't able to figure it out.
This example is benign, but others are problematic.
321gogo t1_izrjlai wrote
What do you mean “figure it out”? I’m not familiar with the example, but this sounds like a fairly simple application of ML. At the end of the day it is just finding trends in extremely large datasets that humans don’t have the brain power to process. Just because humans can’t do that work doesn’t mean we can’t understand it.
For example with predicting the pregnancy. A human might try to predict this by working backwards. You can first just try to understand the persons age and if they are female. Not too crazy to figure out from purchase history. Maybe you see that the person is in a relationship because they started buying Mens shampoo. Maybe they started buying dogfood and you find in your training data people tend to have a child within a few years of getting a pet. Tons of little things that can point you in the right direction. Now a computer is just doing this but ramped up to the max. The applications are very simple, the computation is the part the is complex.
winangel t1_izo6sof wrote
Hum looks like it is completely in our understanding, it just accelerates the underlying applications of the first principles. Scientist know it is possible to talk to cells, the ai just decoded the language at a stunning speed. But it is not something we don’t understand here…
dude-O-rama t1_iznvkqs wrote
The only thing you have to worry about is living in A Brave New World.
EthanPrisonMike t1_izokjok wrote
I'd take some soma to not worry about inflation anymore
bubba-yo t1_izp4ie5 wrote
Beyond *your* understanding. Not beyond scientists/engineers understanding. The mRNA vaccines weren't a fluke.
Just because discovery (science) doesn't have an obvious path to invention (engineering) doesn't mean there's a lack of understanding here. Took us decades after understanding quantum mechanics to figure out how to put that knowledge to practical use.
BaalKazar t1_izo1wjg wrote
„Beyond our understanding“
… no
We developed and trained it to do exactly what it is expected to do. Nothing yet is beyond our understanding and current AI is still not even as „intelligent“ as an Amoeba.
It’s complex wirering which leads to mechanical and predictable results.
[deleted] t1_izo6sk5 wrote
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SeneInSPAAACE t1_izontmm wrote
>current AI is still not even as „intelligent“ as an Amoeba.
Very incorrect. While direct comparison is impossible, as they specialize in different tasks, modern AI can have over a billion neurons, which puts them above cats and some relatively-smart birds, such as magpies, in a simple comparison.
CCerta112 t1_izpebmh wrote
That‘s not how intelligence works.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izpi364 wrote
Well, yes, except no. An AI isn't going to match a cat at stalking prey, for an example. However, a cat is trash at chess, and loses on facial recognition pretty hard.
Pray tell, how does intelligence work?
CCerta112 t1_izpjlza wrote
As far as I‘m aware, we don‘t have a comprehensive model to explain intelligence with, yet.
Sure, there might be neural networks that deploy more artificial neurons than cats have real neurons. (I doubt that claim, but I am also too lazy to look it up.) One of the differences is, cats can reason, current AI can‘t. There are more, but my point is: After a certain point it‘s not about the computing power or network site, but about how the structure and connections look.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izppn5w wrote
>I doubt that claim
Of course, that's not the full story. Machine neurons aren't necessarily as performant as animal neurons, for an example. On the other hand, they're ridiculously faster. Also, that reference is nearly a decade old. We're somewhere around 90 billion simulated neurons at this point. Don't quote me on that, though, that's just the ballpark I got from a fairly casual googling.
Most of what you'd call "machine learning" AI:s can't really reason - They do pattern recognition really well, and data transformation, but that's about it. However, that doesn't mean you cannot do AIs who can do logical reasoning. There's been some fairly recent developments on that area. Now, where the limits are, we don't really know, but we're way beyond amoebas and simple invertebrates such as nematodes, definitely.
CCerta112 t1_izpxqez wrote
> Doubt me at your own peril.
Wow, that‘s really interesting. Thanks!
My original point still stands, though. Intelligence is not defined by the amount of neurons connected in a network.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izpygfm wrote
Yes. Intelligence is not defined by that. So what is it defined by?
BaalKazar t1_izpqmsh wrote
But these neurons don’t have much in common with biological neurons. They utilize the electrical grid impulse-neuron principle but do not consider electric inhibiter-neurons. The entire chemical-neuron Transmitter system is ignored as well.
Yeah they already do some amazing things but the things they are doing are very mechanical. A biological brain can alter neuro transmitter levels to react to the same input in indefinite amount of ways, without changing the underlying electrical nor the chemical synapse network configuration.
Science of biological brains isn’t far enough to clearly conclude how much of „intelligence“ is living in the electrical realm. 100mil simulated electrical neurons might contain less entropy than a biological brain clustered with a mix of 1000 electric and chemical neurons.
AI can solve non-linear problems. That’s a big step in terms of computation but far off from what we believe makes up intelligence.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izpv54m wrote
>But these neurons don’t have much in common with biological neurons. They utilize the electrical grid impulse-neuron principle but do not consider electric inhibiter-neurons. The entire chemical-neuron Transmitter system is ignored as well.
Correct. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison in that sense. Like I said.
However, it's hundreds of billions vs. 750 million, if we really wanted to compete.
​
> A biological brain can alter neuro transmitter levels to react to the same input in indefinite amount of ways, without changing the underlying electrical nor the chemical synapse network configuration.
All that and a few studies have hinted that there might also be an electromagnetic aspect to brain function. Still, an AI doesn't have to work the exact same way as a biological intelligence. It does make direct comparisons harder, though.
​
>AI can solve non-linear problems. That’s a big step in terms of computation but far off from what we believe makes up intelligence.
Yes, yes. The same old story. A goalpost is set for AI, then it's reached, then people say "what about THIS", and "Doing that previous thing doesn't prove it's actually intelligent".
BaalKazar t1_izq1twe wrote
The first goal post of measuring digital intelligence wasn’t moved since 60 years.
It’s still the Turing Test. Until AI cannot beat this already multiple times overhauled base version of a test for the digital intelligence state we can assume it is not yet intelligent. It’s not even at the beginning of the measurable spectrum, yet.
What GPT does today can be rebuild in 60 year old analog Turing machines. It’s a ball dropped onto an angled grid resulting in an expectable outcome depending on where you drop the ball. But that grid wouldn’t be considered intelligent, only functional.
Taking the brain of a bat, hooking it up to electrodes, and letting it control a fighter jet for example. The brain in this state is only functional. It already controlled aircrafts in experiments, but it’s merely a grid of functionality. What we consider „intelligence“ is gone once the brain is removed from the body and connected to a synthetic interface instead.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izq49dy wrote
Uh, did you miss that LaMDA passed the Turing test in June? The conclusion was that the result isn't valid because there's no intelligence behind LaMDA.
Or, "It's not really intelligent".
This is what we're going to get. We'll use harder and harder tests and see them being passed, and we'll just keep concluding "It's not really actually intelligent". Or, maybe we'll switch to "It's not self-aware" or "It's not sapient" at some point.
BaalKazar t1_izq958r wrote
It did not though.
The suspect knew it was talking to a machine and was asked if it believes the machine might be intelligent or even sentient.
The Turing Test implies that the suspect does not know it is talking to a machine. That way the suspect has to identify the machine as a human for the machine to pass the test.
In case of LaMDA the human knew from the beginning that he is talking to a machine. Asking someone if he believes a machine is intelligent is different than asking someone if he believes that he is talking to a human.
There is money in AI. Hence a lot of caution is advised when for profit organizations self declare themselves as the first to pass the test. The first to pass it will become rich by publicity alone. When it actually is passed you, me and everyone will get blasted across all media channels by this breakthrough.
(The GPT ceo is marketing GPT-4 as the first to pass the test. GPT is for profit and said the same about GPT-3, other companies go the same publicity route without the meat needed. As long as no human says „yeh this dialog partner is a human“ the test isn’t passed. A human saying „this machine might be intelligent“ isn’t enough. )
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izqad1w wrote
>In case of LaMDA the human knew from the beginning that he is talking to a machine.
So the well was poisoned from the beginning? Isn't that cheating? On the human side?
BTW, allegedly GPT-4 will have 100 TRILLION parameters. Now, again, we can't exactly tell what that means, but human brains have something like 150 trillion SYNAPSES, and that includes all the ones for our bodily functions and motor control, so.... Yeah, it's going to get interesting.
BaalKazar t1_izqerqh wrote
To be honest yea it is. But it’s not as easy and definitive. You got a point I don’t want to deny that. The edge between us in our discussion is the fascinating thing about all of this, especially the fact that either of us might be correct but in the current state of time there is no definite way to proof it. The Turing test it self is not definitive either.
Currently it looks like GPT it self is going to try to cheat it’s way through the Turing test by using a language model which is naturally hard for humans to identify as a machine. When a neural network is trained to pass the test by using all means necessary, is it passing the test duo to its intelligence or passing the test pre-determined? (It was trained to pass the test, can it do things beyond the scope of this training?)
There is no clear answer. Which imo makes it fascinating. We cannot truly say it is intelligent, but it will reach a point very soon at which it will appear intelligent.
The master question is, if that it self already is intelligence. It might be! I don’t want to deny that. But we lack the necessary definite understanding of „intelligence“ to truly conclude.
When a neural network passes the test, there will be fierce discussions. These discussions will help us understand what makes up intelligence, they will most likely help with understanding consciousness as well.
But it’s a step by step discovery process on both sides. Passing the Turing test doesn’t automatically mean we suddenly have a clear picture of intelligence or what it looks like. But it is a milestone in being able to understand it. Perhaps humans already created synthetic intelligence without even noticing.
Don’t get me wrong GPT and Co are fascinating and modern age magic. The new sense of possible tools is breathtaking. Intelligence requires the ability to acquire and apply knowledge in form of skills. Digital AI is very close to doing that, but the way they acquire knowledge is very technical and bound to complex engineered models being fed in just the right way. It’s not able to do so on its own. (Just like the brain! But the brain does so with a certain intrinsic ease, which might be purely Duo to some special not yet discovered feature unrelated to „intelligence“. Science can’t really tell yet so we naturally have a hard time setting boundaries for different AI models. Perhaps this current language model isn’t intelligent but some physics model AI already was? The physics one can’t „talk“ to us which makes it easy to miss)
Currently we are talking to the AI, what we are looking for is the AI starting to talk to us. Perhaps it already did but nobody noticed because we didn’t yet know how to listen.
And yeah I fully agree GPT-4 sounds incredible! The steps the industry marches forward with got huge the last years, truly fascinating.
SeneInSPAAACE t1_izroblm wrote
>The Turing test it self is not definitive either.
Very true. Without poisoning the well, would LaMDA completely have passed it already? And if I've understood correctly, it's a bit of an idiot outside of putting words in a pleasing order.
​
>Currently it looks like GPT it self is going to try to cheat it’s way through the Turing test by using a language model which is naturally hard for humans to identify as a machine.
"Cheat" is relative. Can a HUMAN pass a turing test, especially if we restrict the format in which they are allowed to respond?
If it can pass every test a human can, and we still call it anything but intelligent, either we gotta admit our dishonesty, or question whether humans are intelligent.
​
> it will reach a point very soon at which it will appear intelligent.
Just like everyone else, then. Well, better than some of us.
BaalKazar t1_izsnhiv wrote
Now I fully agree with what you said.
Cheat is a absolutely relative! How can we tell that something which appears to be intelligent is not? The parallels to how human infants acquire knowledge are strikingly similier. Parents are the engineers and the environment is the data set which the infant is getting trained on.
We need to take a better look at what the Turing test is doing to answer your question of „could a human pass it“. Turings approach is not really to measure intelligence, intelligence definitely is a spectrum, his test results in a binary yes/no conclusion for a reason though. He believed that 70% of humans won’t be able to identify a machine through a 5min dialogue until the year 2000.
His test is not a scientifically important milestone, passing the Turing test, or declaring a machine to be intelligent is not yielding any new knowledge. The passing of the Turing test is marking the point in time in which humans must accept the fact that a majority of them won’t be able to tell the difference of remotely communicating with a human or a machine. (The latest point at which governments need to work on additional legislation and regulation etc)
So as you correctly pointed out, the test cannot really be cheated. But the test can be passed without the need for intelligence. A dog is intelligent but could not pass it. Passing it definitively requires something to seem intelligent for a human.
StarTrek has many episodes which tackle this highly ethical topic of when do humans accept something to be intelligent and when do we accept that something is sentient. The android Commander Data is definitively intelligent, he is acquiring knowledge and applies it in the real work. Question about Data is, is he sentient? They impressively show how difficult it is to identify intelligence and even something as seemingly obvious as sentience. There is an episode which concludes a crystalline rock to be intelligent based on it emitting energy patterns which can be considered to be an encoded try of communication.
Humans may look intelligence straight into the face and state it’s not intelligent. That’s because we do not understand our own intelligence enough yet. My point of view is that AI will help us understand our own intelligence. But until we cannot grasp our own, how can we grasp something else’s? I believe that pushing back will at some point result in a technology which goes over and beyond to make the claim of it being not intelligent completely obsolet. StarTreks Data for example, there is no deniability of its intelligence and interesting enough this leads straight to question of sentience. At least StarTrek is not able to draw a picture which clearly shows the boundary of intelligence and sentience, in their pictures these two things are appearing to correlate. Something which is definitively considered to be intelligent by humans, always appears to be sentient at the same time. (Which imo shows that we need to get a better idea of „intelligence“ before we conclude something is, when we concluded it is intelligent the scientific path „ends“ before we truly understood)
zebrahdh t1_izoagma wrote
Lol. It’s funny how everyone wants to be Nostradamus, the worlds most famous guy that has no idea when the world will end but is ready to predict it anyway.
Galladorn t1_izo1dfs wrote
I wonder how Toffler would have written Future Shock if he was producing it today.
iz296 t1_izo51eb wrote
Lost someone very important to me last week due to complications from cancer.
It's effected our family deeply. Hoping the cure comes soon.
SkyJebus t1_izpanqs wrote
Progress is good. Demanding things stay the same will never work and only lead to regression.
SciGuy45 t1_izql3x5 wrote
Just like nuclear energy, there’s good and nefarious potential with this technology.
blaspheminCapn OP t1_iznwcru wrote
The bigger shock would be if it all suddenly stopped. Imagine if global free trade suddenly wasn't free or secure. Which could be a big problem soon if globalization continues to retract.
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