That’s a really good question! It’s super hard to predict technology because advancements are rarely linear. We might find that the jump from 3 to 4 is relatively simple or maybe it takes decades of work before we can do it! I personally think that it’s likely to come very quickly, maybe even the next ten years.

Surprisingly, it doesn’t take a supercomputer to drive a car, I think the biggest limitation is not the chips but the sensors. For example, radar provides a good view of the world but stops working in rain or fog. Cameras are great until it hits inclement weather. LiDAR makes perfect 3d maps but it’s performance suffers at night or in cloudy weather.

Most companies are combining multiple sensors to combat their weaknesses but Tesla seems committed to using only cameras. I don’t know if multiple sensors will be required or if Tesla is right in trying to copy the way humans drive. So far, Tesla seems to have a lead but they’ve also spent more time working in this than anyone else. We’ll see if the camera only approach is enough for level 4, I’m a little skeptical.

You would be 100% correct if Tesla was attempting autonomous driving in the traditional way with mapping and specific route planning. But Tesla is not doing that at all, they actually have decreased the vehicles confidence in basic map data over the last few updates because they want the vehicle to process what it sees, not what it expects. This is why when they addressed Chuck Cook’s left turn it vastly improved unprotected turns for everyone, not just that one single instance. For that same reason, a closed loop isn’t a great way to measure the vehicle’s performance because they’re not training it for any specific routes. It makes their progress look much slower but in the end it will be able to adapt to changing road conditions, construction, new roads, etc. without needing to be pre-mapped. That said, I don’t think we’ll be seeing level 5 without different camera placement, I’ll be curious to see if HW4 makes that change.

They are fixed on FSD beta, same as the auto headlights. I imagine you’ll see that roll out when they make everything single stack, I suspect that will be the Christmas update but who knows.

I remember Baxter! I haven’t seen anything on that in years, I’ll have to see what that company is up to because Baxter is exactly the same idea as Optimus. I’m curious if they’ve already rolled out to manufacturers. I first remember hearing about Baxter like ten years ago, I’m sure they made plenty of improvements since I last saw it. They would actually have a massive lead time over Tesla, if they have the manufacturing process nailed down and could partner with a group like nvidia for AI, they could likely capture a big portion of that market years before Tesla has anything ready.

Asimo was crazy for it’s time, it’s weird to think how long ago that was. The big difference is that asimo ran on preprogrammed maps while Tesla’s proposed bot will not need them. Asimo had some similar things with object detection but it was nowhere near as advanced as the occupancy network Tesla uses.

Generalized equipment is almost always cheaper to produce at scale. It’s certainly cheaper with a product like Optimus where the main selling point is the software. You don’t need multiple teams focusing on several different product lines. Maintenance is simplified and issues become much easier to identify and fix.

I think you should also consider that Optimus is running off of the same software as Tesla’s vehicles. They’ve already poured excessive amounts of money into R&D. They definitely need to have a crack team of engineers; like you’ve already noted, the actuation needs work. But even still, a functioning prototype put together in less than a year is absolutely wild for this level of robotics.