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woodzy_mtb OP t1_izlnkau wrote

Source: Google win probability data from the World Cup data card in Google search results. Info about the data here.

Tool: Used Puppeteer javascript library to scrape the data from Google each minute of the game then Excel to create the chart.

To clarify the legend, orange is prob. of a Netherlands win in regular time, blue is an Argentina win, gray is prob. of ending in a tie and heading to extra time.

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againbenn t1_izn1iv5 wrote

The ref was tooootallly unbiased. Messi neeever fouled

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DrinkinDoughnuts t1_izoc39w wrote

I don't really understand this chart. Both teams have a higher chance of losing or tying going into the game than winning it?

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LegHole3 t1_izq3uli wrote

Bookies cut?

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DrinkinDoughnuts t1_izrq8tx wrote

You can bet on that too.

Kind of similar with 0 on roulette, but here the chance of tie is bigger.

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Strength-Speed t1_izprng7 wrote

So a tie in regulation is just over 30% probability before the game starts, that is pretty interesting.

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[deleted] t1_izlytgu wrote

[deleted]

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woodzy_mtb OP t1_izm0j9y wrote

The grey line is extra time! So when the Netherlands score with 8 minutes left the probability of the game going to extra time jumps to near 99%.

Edit: Original comment asked about the sharp cross of lines at the end.

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TheKitof t1_j0qcsoj wrote

We build the same for the final ;)

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